Issued at 4:29 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 10th, 2012
-Significant weather events for June 2012
Tonight: Spotty showers during the Evening. Some clouds through the night.
Wednesday: Warm. Spotty showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday: Warm. Spotty showers and thunderstorms.
NOTE: 2012 data is thru July 10th.
2008: 20 days at or above 80F.
2009: 17 days at or above 80F.
2010: 33 days at or above 80F.
2011: 34 days at or above 80F. 3 days at or above 90F.
2012: 19 days at or above 80F. 1 day at or above 90F.
Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota
A flood warning continues for the Mississippi River near Aitkin affecting Aitkin County.
*At 4 PM Tuesday the stage was 15.9 feet.
*Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
*Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
*The river will continue to fall to around 15.7 feet by Tomorrow Morning.
*Flood Warning*
Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota
A flood warning continues for the Mississippi River at Fort Ripley affecting Morrison and Crow Wing Counties.
*At 4 PM Tuesday the stage was 11.0 feet.
*Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
*Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
*The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Monday early Afternoon, July 16th.
*At 11.0 feet this will cause minor flooding of rural areas near Fort Ripley.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A stagnant weather pattern remains in place. We saw a mix of sun and clouds in the Northland Today with warm temperatures in the low to mid 80s with 70s along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Dewpoints remained in comfortable territory with readings in the 50s. Winds were southwest, north, or northeast at 5 to 15 mph. A couple of showers have been developing, and falling apart within about 20 minutes time in Northeast Minnesota Today, brief heavy downpours have occurred in isolated spots with doppler radar rainfall estimates of around 1/4″ or less.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Northwest flow continued in the Upper Midwest with a ridge across the Western U.S., and an upper trough in Eastern Canada per RAP model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. 850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +14C in extreme Northeast Minnesota to +16C in Central Minnesota to +18C in extreme Southwest Minnesota.
-500mb map for Today
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (July 10th)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue with isolated, mainly evening showers. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s, but a few 40s can’t be ruled out once again in the traditional cool spots, similar to the past two nights. Winds will be out of the south or north-northeast around 10 mph.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (July 11th)
An area of high pressure will move east and out of Minnesota during this period. Southerly winds will increase resulting in slightly higher dewpoints and continued warm temperatures. Highs Tomorrow will mainly be in the 80s, but a 90 degree reading isn’t out of the question. Lows Tomorrow Night will be mainly in the 60s. Dewpoints are forecast to range from 57-64 degrees with PWS of 1.00-1.25″. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast, and there could be a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly in Northern Minnesota. CAPE is expected to increase to around 1000 j/kg during the Afternoon-Evening across Northern Minnesota with Lifted Indices around -2C, this might be enough to trigger a pop-up storm or two.
-Wednesday’s high temperature forecast
Extended Forecast, Thursday-Saturday (July 12th-14th)
Warm temperatures will prevail with highs each day in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible as well through this period, but the best chance for some rain appears to be on Friday and possibly on Saturday.
Long Range Forecast (July 15th-20th)
The chance for showers or thunderstorms should decrease for Sunday (15th) as a weak cold front settles south/east of our area along with an upper trough/disturbance. Shower/thunderstorm chances may increase once again at some point between Monday-Wednesday, July 16-18. Dry weather could then return for late next week, (19-20) Temperatures are forecast to remain at or above average during this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Isolated showers early. Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62. Wind variable around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
.Wednesday… Warm. Partly to mostly sunny. High 83 to 88. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Warm. Partly to mostly sunny. High 81 to 86.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.
.Friday… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 80 to 85. Chance of rain 30%.
.Friday Night… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 60%.
.Saturday… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 40%.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 76
Low: 55
Sunrise Wednesday: 5:26 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 9:02 PM CDT
Wednesday’s UV Index: 8.0/Medium-High
Tim
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