Issued at 4:15 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 24th, 2012
Tonight: Increasing clouds. Showers, thunderstorms developing. Heavy rain potential late. Small severe risk south areas.
Wednesday: Lingering showers or thunderstorms. Heavy rain potential, mainly early.
Thursday: Scattered showers and storms.
HRRR model (19z run), this model is a heck of a lot farther south with the heaviest rain for late Tonight. Still quite a bit of uncertainty even at this late hour.
-HPC’s rainfall forecast for Tonight and Wednesday. Some decent rainfall totals expected for all of the Northland. It’s been fairly dry lately, so the prospects for widespread flooding seem pretty low, but if thunderstorms begin to move over the same location for a few hours, then the risk for flooding would increase. Something to keep an eye on!
-Not too surprising to see the computer models still bouncing around with each new run. This is the 18z NAM-HIRES rainfall forecast for Tonight-Wednesday. Axis of the heaviest rains from Duluth, west, and south, which is a shift to the south compared to it’s 12z run This Morning.
Weather Tidbits:
*Today marks the 30th day in 2012 with a high temperature of at least 80F at the Duluth Airport.
*On this date in 2004: A record low temperature of 41 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
*Latest crop report: Illinois Soybean: 49% in poor or very poor condition (41% one week ago) Iowa Corn: 40% in poor or very poor condition (27% one week ago) Illinois Corn: 66% in poor or very poor condition (56% last week) Twitter; @TriStatesWx @KWQC_kphelps
*17 lightning deaths in the U.S. so far this year. Twitter; @tshea_wcm
Source: Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times
Topeka, KS: 106F
Valentine, NE: 109F
North Platte, NE: 104F
Omaha, NE: 105F
Mason City, IA: 99F
Indianapolis, IN: 102F
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Hibbing, MN: 47F
Crane Lake, MN: 46F
Bigfork, MN: 46F
Silver Bay, MN: 48F
Grand Marais, MN: 48F
Ely, MN: 48F
Embarrass, MN: 44F
-Monday Night’s rainfall event targeted Southcentral Minnesota, anywhere from 0.50-2.50″ totals in that area.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Low pressure of 1004mb was located in Southern South Dakota as of 4 PM with a warm front becoming better defined in far Southern Minnesota. High pressure of 1014mb was centered north/east of our area This Afternoon. This high has brought lower dew points into Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with 40s and 50s common in these areas, but the humid air isn’t far away with 60+ dew points from Cass county to Pine county. Late Afternoon PWATS per meso-analysis ranged from 1.50-1.70″ in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin to a much drier 0.70-0.90″ in Northeast Minnesota. High temperatures Today were in the 70s and 80s with partly to mostly sunny skies.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Upper troughs covered the Northeast U.S./Eastern Canada with a strong upper level low moving slowly east through Western Canada per water vapor satellite imagery. A large upper level ridge continued to sit over the Plains, west through the Southern Rockies per RAP model analysis, north of this ridge was a westerly flow aloft which stretched from the Northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest. 850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +20 to +26C in Southern Minnesota to +16 to +18C over the rest of Minnesota.
-500mb for 7 AM Today
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight and Wednesday Morning (July 24th-25th)
Conditions appear to be coming together for a round of heavy rainfall in portions of the Northland late Tonight into Wednesday Morning.
Low pressure over Southern South Dakota late This Afternoon is forecast to move E-NE, reaching Southern-Central-Eastern Minnesota by Wednesday Morning. A warm front over Southern Minnesota This Afternoon will push a little bit N/NE, but it should remain south of our local area. Deep moisture with PWATS of 1.50-2.00″ will be overspreading the Northland Tonight with a low level jet of 30-40 knots developing Overnight.
The lift associated with that warm front/surface low, plus an upper level disturbance moving east out of the Dakotas will combine with good upper level divergence with a 100 knot jet streak to our NE and a 60-80knot jet streak to our NW…All these ingredients should lead to one or more shower and thunderstorm clusters in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight and Wednesday Morning.
With the abundant moisture moving into our area, there will certainly be a potential for heavy rainfall which could lead to some flooding late Tonight and Tomorrow Morning.
The computer models continue to differ somewhat in regards to the exact placement of the heaviest corridor of rain. Some models keep it north of Duluth, affecting the Iron Range, North Shore, and Arrowhead, while others have it more south bascially along and south of Highway 2…Affecting the Twin Ports, Brainerd Lakes, I-35 corridor, east into Northwest Wisconsin. This latter solution seems to make more sense, thus the Flash Flood Watch which covers the North Shore of Lake Superior may need to be expanded a bit more to the south late Tonight.
MUCAPE (elevated instability) will be increasing to around 1000 j/kg Tonight with favorable wind shear in place, although the greatest chance for severe weather seems to be setting up southwest-south of our area, one certainly can’t rule out a few severe thunderstorms late Tonight, especially from the Brainerd Lakes to Hinckley-Pine City areas in Minnesota. Hail appears to be the greatest threat up in our area, but if a bow echo gets going, then the potential for damaging winds would increase.
Low temperatures Tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph with stronger gusts near Lake Superior.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast
Wednesday Afternoon/Night (July 25th)
Low pressure will exit to our south/east during this period with a weakening cold front heading SE out of Western Minnesota.
Scattered showers or thunderstorms remain possible Tomorrow Afternoon into Tomorrow Night with an isolated risk for severe weather west of a line from International Falls to Cass Lake. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the north, east, or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
-Wednesday’s high temperature forecast
-Wednesday’s severe weather forecast per SPC. 5-15% chances in all but far Northeast Minnesota and extreme Northern Wisconsin.
Extended Forecast, Thursday-Saturday (July 26th-28th)
An upper level low/trough will dig south into the Northland on Thursday. Chilly air aloft with some warming near the surface will create an unstable atmosphere, this will lead to some showers and thunderstorms in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Thursday. This system exits to our east by Friday with mainly dry conditions on tap for Friday and Saturday. High temperatures will be in the 70s and lower 80s on Thursday. Mainly the 70s on Friday. 70s and lower 80s on Saturday. Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night will be mainly in the 50s.
-Thursday’s severe weather forecast per SPC. 5% chance covers all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
Long Range Forecast (July 29th-August 3rd)
A persistent pattern consisting of an upper level ridge to our west-south and a west-northwest flow in the Upper Midwest looks to continue during this period resulting in near to above average temperatures for the Northland along with possible showers or thunderstorms at times.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Breezy. Becoming mostly cloudy. Occasional showers and thunderstorms developing, especially after 10 PM. Locally heavy rainfall possible after Midnight. Low 60 to 65. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
.Wednesday… Occasional showers or thunderstorms during the Morning. Considerable cloudiness with showers still possible in the Afternoon. High 72 to 77 but cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind east to northeast at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80% early and 40% during the Afternoon.
.Wednesday Night… Variable cloudiness. Low 58 to 63. Wind variable around 10 mph.
.Thursday… Scattered showers or thunderstorms, especially during the Afternoon. Variable cloudiness. High 72 to 77. Chance of rain 60%.
.Thursday Night… Showers possible during the Evening. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 40%.
.Friday… Partly sunny. High 73 to 78.
.Friday Night… Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60.
.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 77
Low: 56
Sunrise Wednesday: 5:41 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 8:49 PM CDT
Tim
Canon T3i 18.0MP Digital SLR Camera with 18-55mm IS Lens – Digital
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