Issued at 5:04 PM CDT, Saturday, September 1st, 2012
*A 5-15% chance of severe thunderstorms in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Sunday Afternoon and Sunday Evening. The greatest chance is across the Western half of Minnesota. Remember, a watch means the potential is there for severe weather. A warning means that severe weather is already occurring or is imminent. (map from the SPC)
Take away the heavy rain (historic flood) in June, and Duluth, Minnesota would’ve had below average rainfall during the summer of 2012.
Without the June flood: Rainfall total for the summer (June-August) 7.29″/4.49″ below average.
Actual summer rainfall total: 14.54″/2.76″ above average.
***WARMEST METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ON RECORD AT DULUTH, MN***
Source: National Weather Service
Average temperature for June through August: 67.4F which is 4.0 degrees above the average of 63.4 degrees. The summer of 2012 is the warmest on record and the 29th wettest on record with 14.54″ of rain.
September climate data for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
Average temperature: 55.6 degrees
Normal precipitation: 4.11″
Normal snowfall: 0.1″
Astronomical data:
Sunrise on the 1st: 6:29 AM
Sunrise on the 30th: 7:06 AM
Sunset on the 1st: 7:47 PM
Sunset on the 30th: 6:49 PM
Weather Tidbits:
*369 cooling degree days at Duluth, Minnesota during the summer of 2012, 186 is average. (June-August) Last summer we had 273 cooling degree days.
*Since August 29th: 36 preliminary tornado reports in the U.S. from Isaac. (SPC)
August 2012 climate summaries for select cities in Minnesota
Source: National Weather Service
International Falls:
Average temperature: 62.0 degrees/1.3 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 2.70″/0.11″ below normal
Twin Cities:
Average temperature: 72.0 degrees/0.8 degrees above normal
Total precipitation: 1.38″/-2.92″
St. Cloud:
Average temperature: 67.8 degrees/Normal
Total precipitation: 1.22″/2.57″ below normal
Duluth:
Average temperature: 66.1 degrees/1.8 degrees above normal
Total precipitation: 1.42″/2.28″ below normal
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
High pressure of 1022mb covered the Upper Great Lakes and Central Canada Today while the remnants of Isaac had slowly N/NE through Eastern Missouri while a new low pressure system affects the Northern Rockies and the Northern Plains. The Northland saw another day of mostly sunny skies and above average temperatures as we kick off the month of September. Highs were in the upper 70s to lower 80s with slightly cooler temperatures closer to Lake Superior. Winds were out of the south or east at 10 to around 20 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Upper troughs remained over the Northwest U.S., and Central-Eastern Canada with an upper level low churning slowly NE through Eastern Missouri per water vapor satellite imagery. A southwest flow is in place across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. 850mb temperatures as of 5 PM ranged from +18 to +20C in Western Minnesota to around +16C in Northeast Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (September 1st)
Clear to partly cloudy skies should continue with an outside chance of a shower or two, mainly toward Northome and International Falls. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with south or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.
Sunday and Sunday Night (September 2nd)
An area of low pressure along with it’s warm front and cold front will move east out of the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest during this period. A gradual increase in moisture will take place on Sunday with dew points climbing into the 50s and 60s with PWS of 1.00-1.50″. Instability will also increase with CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg by late Sunday Afternoon along with Lifted Indices of -2 to -5C.
A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible during the day in Northern Minnesota, generally from International Falls and Bigfork and points west. The chance for showers or thunderstorms will spread farther east for Sunday Night, including the Arrowhead, Iron Range, North Shore, I-35 corridor, and most of Northwestern Wisconsin, coverage of the rain should remain scattered, however.
There is a risk for a few severe thunderstorms, generally in Northcentral Minnesota from late Sunday Afternoon into Sunday Evening. Hail and strong winds appear to be the main hazards at this time.
By no means should you cancel any outdoor plans that you may have on Sunday, but do stay weather aware, and remember when thunder roars get indoors.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with highs on Sunday in the 70s and 80s, lows Sunday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the south, east, or west at 10 to 20 mph.
*Here’s the rainfall forecast valid until 7 PM Sunday. (HPC)
* Rainfall forecast for 7 PM Sunday through 7 PM Monday.
Extended Forecast, Monday through Wednesday (September 3rd-5th)
A cold front will be slowing down and washing out as it moves into Northwest Wisconsin/Eastern Minnesota on Monday. A secondary cold front and low pressure system will be moving into the Upper Midwest for Tuesday-Wednesday. There is a chance for a few showers or thunderstorms during this period. Monday’s threat zone should mainly be in Northwest Wisconsin the way it looks now. Then, by Tuesday and Wednesday the entire Northland will be under the gun to get a few showers or thunderstorms. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s Monday and Tuesday with lows in the 50s and 60s. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s.
Long Range Forecast (September 6th-11th)
Near to below average temperatures are possible for the 6th-8th with temperatures moderating a bit from the 9th-11th. Can’t rule out some rain showers late next week or from Thursday-Saturday (6th-8th) The computer models aren’t in the best of agreement though, so stay tuned!
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Clear to partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 77 to 82 but a little cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday Night… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Wind south to southeast 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
.Labor Day… Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible, mainly during the Morning. High 80 to 85. Chance of rain 30%.
.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 20%.
.Tuesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.
.Wednesday… Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 68 to 73. Chance of rain 20%.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
High: 70
Low: 51
Sunrise Sunday: 6:30 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday: 7:45 PM CDT
Today’s predominant pollens: Ragweed. Grasses.
Sunday’s Allergy Forecast: 7.4/Medium-High
Sunday’s UV Index: 7.0/Medium
Tim
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