Issued at 6:43 PM CDT, Sunday, September 2nd, 2012
High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
August 26-September 1, 2012
8/26: 83F/10 degrees above normal
8/27: 79F/7 degrees above normal
8/28: 77F/5 degrees above normal
8/29: 83F/11 degrees above normal
8/30: 84F/13 degrees above normal
8/31: 83F/12 degrees above normal
9/1: 79F/8 degrees above normal
Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
August 26-September 1, 2012
8/26: 61F/8 degrees above normal
8/27: 56F/3 degrees above normal
8/28: 53F/Normal
8/29: 56F/4 degrees above normal
8/30: 61F/9 degrees above normal
8/31: 53F/1 degree above normal
9/1: 50F/2 degrees below normal
*Warm temperatures returned to the Upper Midwest last week, here’s the departure from average.
Rainfall total for August 26-September 1: 0.02″
Normal: 0.89″
Departure from normal: -0.87″
*Remnants of Isaac produced copious amounts of rain the past few days in Missouri, Illinois, and portions of nearby states…Rainfall totals were some 200-400% above what they would typically receive last week. In contrast, very dry conditions in Minnesota, Duluth saw just 2% of it’s normal rainfall last week.
*Summer 2012 temperature departure map.
*Summer 2012 precipitation departure map.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Partly to mostly sunny skies were common Today with highs in the 70s and 80s. Dew points have climbed into the 50s and lower 60s with winds out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph. There’s been some light rain showers passing through Northern-Northeastern Minnesota This Afternoon, but nothing significant has occurred.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Southwest flow covers the Upper Midwest as a vigorous disturbance moves into Manitoba along with 30-60 meter 12 hour height falls per RAP model analysis. Upper level troughs remained over the Northwest and Northeast U.S. with an upper ridge in the Central-Southern U.S. 850mb temperatures as of 6 PM ranged from +20 to +22C in Southern Minnesota to +16 to +18C elsewhere.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (September 2nd)
A weak cold front moving into Western Minnesota early This Evening will track east during the night, this boundary should reach Eastcentral Minnesota by dawn. SW low level jet of 25-35 knots will develop ahead of this front Tonight and this will draw moisture north into our area with dew points in the 50s and 60s and PWS of 1.00-1.50″. Instability is also forecast to increase through the night with CAPE up to 1000 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -2 to -5C.
Thunderstorms have been slow to develop out west This Afternoon thanks to the cap (warm temps aloft) H7 temperatures remain around +12C as of 6 PM with 850mb temps nearing +20C. This cap really won’t be going away Tonight, but there should be enough forcing near the cold front to eventually cause scattered showers or thunderstorms in the Northland, especially by mid-Evening and through the Overnight hours.
The potential for severe thunderstorms is low Tonight, but with 0-6 KM and Effective Bulk Shear approaching 30-40 knots along with favorable mid/upper level winds over the area, an isolated stronger storm could develop, especially before Midnight.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the south, west, or east at 5 to 15 mph.
*Rainfall forecast valid until 7 PM Monday. The bulk of the rain that is forecast to fall in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin should come Tonight, and it doesn’t look like alot, if you get a tenth to quarter inch consider yourself lucky! (HPC)
Monday and Monday Night (September 3rd)
A cold front will more or less wash out as it moves into Northwest Wisconsin on Monday, meanwhile a secondary cold front will move east out of the Northern Plains. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible Tomorrow, mainly in Northwest Wisconsin. Should stay dry in Northeast Minnesota during the day. The entire Northland will be dry for Monday Night. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast t his period with highs Tomorrow in the 70s and 80s. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s to around 60. North or west winds are forecast at 5 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast, Tuesday through Thursday (September 4th-6th)
A cold front will be moving through our area on Tuesday with the potential for a few showers or thunderstorms. Some showers might linger into Wednesday with dry weather expected on Thursday. Highs will start in the 70s and 80s on Tuesday, cooling to the 60s and 70s for Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will be in the 50s Tuesday Night and the 40s and 50s for Wednesday Night.
Long Range Forecast (September 7th-12th)
An upper level trough is forecast to develop across the Great Lakes, Central Plains and Central Canada from Friday-Sunday (7th-9th) Doesn’t look like will get any rain in the Northland later this week, rain chances should be confined to areas south/east of our area the way it looks now. Overall this entire period looks pretty dry at the moment with near to below average temperatures for the 7th-8th and near to above average temperatures from the 9th-12th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible, mainly before 1 AM. Low 60 to 65. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Labor Day… Partly to mostly sunny. High 81 to 86. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind southwest around 10 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 30%.
.Tuesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 30%.
.Wednesday… Partly sunny. Showers possible. High 68 to 73. Chance of rain 30%.
.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.
.Thursday… Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
High: 70
Low: 51
Sunrise Monday: 6:32 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 7:43 PM CDT
Today’s predominant pollens: Ragweed. Grasses.
Monday’s Allergy Forecast: 5.4/Medium
Monday’s UV Index: 7.0/Medium
Tim
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