Issued at 3:06 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 3rd, 2012
*Welcome to winter (at least for now) 15z SREF model cranking out 8″ to nearly 15″ of snow in far Northwest Minnesota and Northeast North Dakota between late Tonight and Thursday Night. I expect blizzard or near blizzard conditions to develop at times Thursday and Thursday Night from Hallock and Roseau, south to Thief River Falls and Crookston.
*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service
A winter weather advisory is in effect from 4 PM CDT Thursday until 7 PM CDT Friday for the following Counties:
Koochiching MN
Northern Itasca MN
Northern St. Louis MN
The winter storm watch is no longer in effect.
Some cities included in the advisory are:
International Falls…Northome…Bigfork…Togo…Crane Lake…Orr…and Ely.
Discussion:
Occasional rain will develop Tonight and linger into most of Thursday. Colder air will then move in from the west which will cause the rain to mix with and change to snow by late Thursday Afternoon. Snow will then continue Thursday Night into Friday. The snow could become heavy at times, especially Thursday Night.
Impacts: Gusty northwest winds will develop Thursday Night into Friday with areas of blowing snow possible. The combination of snow and blowing snow will cause reduced visibility.
Snow accumulations: 3-6″ for Northern Itasca and Koochiching County with amounts of up to 8″ possible for Indus and Birchdale in Northwest Koochiching County. 1-3″ for Northern St. Louis County, including Orr, Crane Lake, and Ely.
A winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow means that visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and blowing snow. Use caution when traveling, especially in open areas that are more exposed to the wind. Roads may be slick and hazardous, so allow extra time to reach your destination.
*NWS hazards map*
Winter Weather Advisory in far Northern Minnesota. Winter Storm Warning for Northwest Minnesota. Gale Warning and Gale Watch for Lake Superior.
Weather Tidbits:
*September 2012 was the 6th driest on record at both Duluth and International Falls, Minnesota. (NWS)
*Today marks the 108th day in 2012 with a high temperature of at least 70F at Duluth, Minnesota.
*Been dry lately. Today is the 11th day in a row without any measurable precipitation at Duluth, Minnesota.
*On average, the first 1.0″ snowfall at Duluth, Minnesota occurs on November 6th. And at International Falls it occurs on November 5th. (NWS)
*For International Falls, Minnesota: The earliest 1.0″ snowfall on record occurred on September 27th, 1993. 2nd place tie between September 30th, 2003 and 1985. The earliest 6.0″ or greater snowfall on record occurred on October 18th, 1917. (Records are from 1900-2012) Source: NWS.
*For Duluth, Minnesota: The earliest 1.0″ snowfall on record occurred on September 18th, 1991. 2nd place is October 1st, 1985. 3rd place is October 10th, 1977. The earliest 6.0″ or greater snowfall on record occurred on October 8th, 1925. (Records are from 1885-2012) Source: NWS.
*On this date in 1999: A record low temperature of 22 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Low pressure of 1004mb is over Southern South Dakota as of 2 PM with a cold front extending from Westcentral to Northeast Minnesota. A very mild day in our area with partly sunny to sunny skies. Highs were in the 60s and 70s with south, east, or north winds at 5 to 15 mph. There’s been reports of smoke/hazy skies in Northcentral Minnesota Today due to the wildfires that have been burning in the Western portion of the state. Note: Colder temperatures are already moving into the Northern Plains This Afternoon with temperatures down into the 30s in parts of North Dakota with some snow or mixed precipitation occurring as well.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A pretty strong upper level trough continued to dig S-SE through the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains per water vapor satellite imagery with height falls up to 60 meters per RAP model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranged from +2 to +6C in Northwest Minnesota to +8 to +12C over the rest of the state.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (October 3rd)
Low pressure will lift northeast out of Southern South Dakota and is forecast to reach Southern/Central Minnesota by dawn while a cold front remains nearly stationary across Northeast-Eastern Minnesota. Some showers are possible Tonight, mainly in Western-Northern sections of the Northland. Looks dry for the North Shore, Twin Ports, and I35 corridor, and in all of Northwest Wisconsin. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with winds out of the south, east, or north at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts possible.
*HPC’s 4.0″ or greater snowfall forecast valid until 7 PM Thursday. Highest probabilities remain west of the Northland through 7 PM Tomorrow.
Thursday and Thursday Night (October 4th)
Low pressure will track from Central Minnesota to near Thunder Bay Ontario Canada during this period. Some rain will occur Tomorrow in Northern Minnesota while a few showers pass through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
Colder air rushes into the Northland in wake of the surface low and cold front with 850mb temperatures dropping to -2 to -6C by late Thursday Afternoon. This will cause the rain to mix with and change to snow from Cass Lake and Bigfork, north to International Falls during Thursday Afternoon. With the transition from rain to snow spreading east into Orr, Crane Lake, and Ely by Thursday Evening the way it looks now.
Any lingering rain showers should turn to snow showers and flurries from the Arrowhead, south to the Twin Ports, I35 corridor and Brainerd Lakes vicinity for Thursday Night, but it still appears that the heavier precipitation with this storm will remain NW of these areas.
High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s with falling temps into the 30s and 40s by the Afternoon. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.
The other big story during this period will be the increasing westerly winds. Expect wind speeds of 15-25 mph with gusts possibly as high as 35 mph by the Afternoon and into the Overnight hours.
*A slight risk for at least 4.0″ of snow from 7 PM Thursday until 7 PM Friday for far Northern Minnesota per HPC.
Extended Forecast, Friday through Sunday (October 5th-7th)
Deep low pressure will remain just north of Lake Superior on Friday before it moves farther NE by Saturday. Very cold temperatures with areas of snow and flurries will occur on the backside of this low in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Friday into early Saturday. Saturday Afternoon into Sunday look dry at this time. Highs will only be in the 30s and 40s Friday-Saturday with 40s to around 50 degrees expected for Sunday. Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees, but some teens can’t be ruled out in Northern Minnesota.
Note: Cold air rushing over the relatively warmer waters of Lake Superior could lead to some lake effect snow showers from Friday Evening into Saturday. A couple inches of snow may accumulate, mainly in Ashland and Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin.
Long Range Forecast (October 8th-13th)
Looks like will see one or two low pressure systems affect our weather next week. The 1st looks to hit on Monday-early Tuesday with the 2nd one moving through sometime the middle of next week (10th-11th) Since these systems will be coming out of Canada, there really won’t be much moisture associated with them, as a result precipitation amounts should stay on the light side. Rain showers are expected to be the main precipitation type with both systems, although some snow may mix in especially if the precipitation falls late at night or during the Morning hours. Below average temperatures are forecast with a warm-up possibly beginning next Saturday (13th)
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly clear This Evening with skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy late. Low 43 to 48. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Becoming windy and turning cooler. Considerable cloudiness. A few showers possible. High 52 to 57 with temperatures falling to around 40 during the Afternoon. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph, shifting to west-southwest at 15 to 30 mph by the Afternoon.
.Thursday Night… Windy. Mostly cloudy. Snow showers and flurries possible which could be mixed with rain closer to Lake Superior. Low 30 to 35. Wind west at 20 to 35 mph.
.Friday… Windy and cold. Mostly cloudy. Snow showers and flurries possible. High 37 to 42. West to northwest winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph.
.Friday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 23 to 28.
.Saturday… Partly sunny. Morning flurries possible. High 40 to 45.
.Saturday Night… Mostly clear. Low 20 to 25.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 45 to 50.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 57
Low: 39
Sunrise Thursday: 7:12 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 6:42 PM CDT
Tim
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