Issued 3:30 PM CDT, Friday, November 2nd, 2012
*May see a light dusting of snow late Tonight/Saturday AM in the Northern half of Minnesota, heavier totals of 2-5″ are expected Tonight in Northern North Dakota into far Northwest Minnesota. (HRRR 12pm model run)
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A cold early November day in the Northland with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs were only in the upper 20s and lower 30s in Northern Minnesota with mid 30s to low 40s common in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds were out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A well defined mid/upper level low is churning slowly SE into the Northern Plains per water vapor satellite imagery, a westerly flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today out ahead of that system to our west. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from 0 to +2C in Southern Minnesota to -2C in Northern Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (November 2nd)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with low temperatures in the 20s to lower 30s, winds will be out of the east at 5 to 15 mph. An area of high pressure will be off to our north with a low pressure disturbance to our west. Several inches of snow are expected Tonight in Northern portions of North Dakota, but here in the Northland only some snow showers and flurries are expected with accumulations if any generally less than a half inch by dawn.
Saturday and Saturday Night (November 3rd)
An upper level disturbance will continue to move slowly SE and through the Upper Midwest during this period. Mostly cloudy skies with a few showers of snow and or rain are possible, especially on Saturday. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s to lower 30s. Winds will be out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast, Sunday through Tuesday (November 4th-6th)
Two systems to keep an eye on during this period, neither of them look very strong though. The 1st looks to take the western-southern route from Sunday-early Monday with the 2nd one passing north of our area through Central Canada next Tuesday. It’s that second system that could bring some showers of rain or snow to the Northland for next Tuesday, otherwise this period looks pretty dry in our area. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 30s and 40s from Sunday through Tuesday with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night in the 20s to lower 30s.
Long Range Forecast (November 7th-12th)
An upper level trough is forecast to move into the Western U.S., while an upper level ridge develops from the Central Plains into the Central Great Lakes for November 9-11. Computer models for the 3rd consecutive day show a strong storm system coming out of the Rockies and affecting the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest for late next week/next weekend. At the moment it looks like most of Minnesota and all of Wisconsin will be on the warm side of this storm, so rain looks to be the main precipitation type with snow farther west in the Dakotas, and possibly into Northwestern Minnesota. Note: This storm is still a week away so the track of the low could change, as well as the timing, so keep checking back for further updates. Near normal temperatures are expected through this period.
*500mb map for next Friday, November 9, 2012. A pattern like this one with a cold upper trough in the Pacific NW and a SW flow in the Plains and Great Lakes may be conducive for the development of a pretty strong November storm late next week. Stay tuned.
*12z EUROPEAN model forecast valid for 6 AM Friday, November 9, 2012. If you live in Minnesota and want snow late next week, sorry to say you’re out of luck. Quite a bit of warm air lifting north ahead of a deep low in the Central Rockies. Right/east side of the low=too warm for snow most of the time. This thing is still a week away though, and the track as well as the timing could change. Lots of cold air draining into Western Canada and from Montana to Idaho late next week…Those areas could get some decent snowfall and wind sometime late next week or next weekend.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Increasing cloudiness. Snow showers or flurries possible after Midnight. Low 25 to 30. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… Considerable cloudiness. Flurries or sprinkles possible. High 36 to 41. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.
.Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 38 to 43.
.Sunday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.
.Monday… Mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45.
.Monday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 28 to 33.
.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy. A few rain showers possible. High 40 to 45.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 43
Low: 29
Sunrise Saturday: 7:55 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 5:49 PM CDT
Tim
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