Issued 3:56 PM CDT, Thursday, November 1st, 2012
*Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin is expected to see some improvement in the current drought, this based off the new U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook which is valid through January 31st, 2013. (CPC)
The streak is over. October 2012 finished with a below average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota. This is the first month to do so since June 2011. 15 months in a row (July ’11-September ’12) had an above normal monthly temperature.
Note: Here’s how far above normal we were, month by month during this streak
July 2011: +4.3 degrees
August 2011: +2.5 degrees
September 2011: +0.6 degrees
October 2011: +5.3 degrees
November 2011: +4.3 degrees
December 2011: +6.9 degrees
January 2012: +7.8 degrees
February 2012: +8.6 degrees
March 2012: +13.3 degrees
April 2012: +2.8 degrees
May 2012: +3.6 degrees
June 2012: +4.1 degrees
July 2012: +6.1 degrees
August 2012: +1.8 degrees
September 2012: +0.6 degrees
November Climate Data for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
Average temperature: 28.8 degrees
Average precipitation: 2.09″
Average snowfall: 13.7″
Astronomical Data:
Sunrise on the 1st: 7:52 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 30th: 7:32 AM CST
Sunset on the 1st: 5:52 PM CDT
Sunset on the 30th: 4:22 PM CST
October 2012 Climate Summaries for select cities in Minnesota
Source: National Weather Service
International Falls:
Average monthly temperature: 39.1F/2.0 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 2.87″/0.79″ above normal
Total snowfall: 1.7″/0.5″ below normal
Twin Cities:
Average monthly temperature: 47.5F/1.4 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 1.30″/1.13″ below normal
Total snowfall: Trace/0.6″ below normal
St. Cloud:
Average monthly temperature: 44.4F/1.3 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 0.73″/1.76″ below normal
Total snowfall: 0.3″/0.5″ below normal
Duluth:
Average monthly temperature: 42.5F/0.7 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 1.34″/1.51″ below normal
Total snowfall: 1.1″/1.2″ below normal
Minnesota drought monitor issued on October 30th, 2012
Source: Climate Prediction Center
-Moderate drought covers 96% of the state, down from 99% last week.
-Severe drought covers 43% of the state, down from 44% last week.
-Extreme drought covers 25% of the state, unchanged from last week.
Wisconsin drought monitor issued on October 30th, 2012
Source: Climate Prediction Center
-Moderate drought covers 60% of the state, down from 80% last week.
-Severe drought covers 24% of the state, down from 35% last week.
-Extreme drought has been erased this week, last week it was at 4%.
Weather History:
On this date in 1990: A record high temperature of 68 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
High pressure of 1026mb was building southeast out of Manitoba behind a cold front which moved through our area earlier in the day. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy Today with a few sprinkles and flurries. Highs were in the 30s and 40s with north or west winds at 10 to 25 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A northwest flow covered the Upper Midwest with troughs to our east and west and a ridge in the Northern Plains per RAP model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +2 to +8C in Southwest Minnesota to 0 to -8C in Northern, Central, and Eastern Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (November 1st)
High pressure will build into the Northland Tonight with skies becoming partly cloudy. There could be a few Evening flurries in Northeast Minnesota and possibly a few lake effect snow showers in Ashland and Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin, but accumulations if any should remain less than an inch. Lows will be in the teens and 20s with north or west winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Friday and Friday Night (November 2nd)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with high pressure off to our north while a low pressure disturbance drops SE through the Northern Plains, this system could bring a few snow and or rain showers to Western portions of our area by late Friday Night. At this time it looks like the bulk of any precipitation would remain west of a line from International Falls to Aitkin. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be out of the north or east at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast, Saturday through Monday (November 3rd-5th)
An upper level low will move SE through the Upper Midwest on Saturday, a few snow or rain showers could continue on Saturday, mainly in Western-Southern portions of our area. Any snow that does fall isn’t expected to amount to very much, maybe a half inch at best. Dry weather returns Saturday Night through Monday. High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s from Saturday through Monday. Low temperatures Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 20s.
Long Range Forecast (November 6th-11th)
Low pressure passes north of our area next Tuesday-Wednesday (6th-7th) A few rain or snow showers could affect the Northland during the early-mid part of next week as a cold front swings through our area. Computer models for the 3rd day in a row show a pattern that is favorable for a larger storm to spin up over the Western U.S. late next week/weekend (9th-11th) Track, timing, and strength differences are evident between the GFS and ECMWF models, but that’s typical for a storm that is over a week away. The main message coming out of the models is that a storm could affect the Upper Midwest sometime between Friday-Sunday (9th-11th) Stay tuned! Temperatures are forecast to be near to above normal through this period.
*How much additional precipitation is needed to end the drought: Northeast Minnesota, anywhere from a trace to 3″. Most of Northwest Wisconsin needs 3-6″ of additional precipitation. The Northwest half of Minnesota still needs another 6-9″ of precipitation to end the current drought. (CPC)
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Mostly sunny. High 37 to 42. Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Friday Night… Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 28 to 33. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… Considerable cloudiness. High 38 to 43.
.Saturday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 40 to 45.
.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.
.Monday… Partly sunny. High 40 to 45.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 44
Low: 29
Sunrise Friday: 7:53 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 5:51 PM CDT
Tim
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