/Issued 4:14 PM CST, Saturday, December 8th, 2012/
*HPC’s winter weather maps valid through 6 PM CST Sunday. 4″ or greater snowfall potential.
Red=High Risk
Green=Moderate Risk
Blue=Slight Risk
*Snowfall of 8″ or greater, valid through 6 PM CST Sunday.
Green=Moderate Risk
Blue=Slight Risk
*First off, the 18z model run is a little concerning. If the 00z model run trends any farther south (which I fear it may) then the potential for heavy snow will be confined to Southern areas of the Northland, and the Twin Ports may even be out of the heaviest snowfall potential. The 00z run comes in around 9 PM This Evening.
At 3 PM CST: Low pressure of 1004mb was over Southwest South Dakota with another center in Western Nebraska. An arctic front stretched from far Northwest Minnesota to Western South Dakota. A very strong temperature gradient has set-up This Afternoon with single digits in Western/Northern parts of North Dakota while 30s prevailed in Southern/Eastern Minnesota.
*Upper Midwest radar loop, ending at 4 PM CST Today. Blue represents snow, darker blue=heavier snow.
*Surface analysis for 3 PM CST 12/8/12.
*Surface observations for 3 PM CST 12/8/12.
-For Tonight, low pressure tracks almost due east out of Western South Dakota/Western Nebraska and into Southwestern Minnesota toward 6 AM Sunday. This low continues on it’s track toward the east, likely hugging Interstate 90 in Southern Minnesota during the day Sunday. Note: This storm track is farther south compared to what the models were showing just 6 hours ago.
-Based on this new track, the potential for heavy snow is greatest in Southern parts of the Northland, or from the Brainerd Lakes to Aitkin to Pine City and Hinckley, north to about Moose Lake. Heavy snow is also possible in parts of Northwest Wisconsin, especially from Solon Springs and Danbury, east toward Minong, Spooner and Shell Lake.
-Snow is still expected farther north, including the Iron Range, Arrowhead, and Borderland areas, but snow totals should be lighter compared to areas farther south.
-The North Shore of Lake Superior down to the Twin Ports: Expect snow, but with the storm tracking farther south, amounts may not be as heavy as was predicted earlier Today and last night. One thing that could still lead to heavier snowfall would be if we see lake enhancement take place…That is a possibility with favorable east or east-northeast winds on Sunday with 850mb temperatures of around -8C.
-Timing of when the snow begins remains the same…Starting around Midnight Tonight in Western-Southwest parts of our area and spreading E/NE thereafter. Snow should reach the Iron Range, Twin Ports, and I-35 corridor between 3-6 AM Tonight.
-Snow should continue all day Sunday with snow tapering off to flurries from west to east Sunday Night.
*Updated snow totals*
Koochiching, Northern Itasca, and Northern St. Louis Counties Minnesota: 1-3″. This includes the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Crane Lake, Orr, and Ely.
Northern Cass, Southern Itasca, Central St. Louis, Northern Lake, and Northern Cook Counties Minnesota: 3-5″. This includes the cities of Cass Lake, Walker, Grand Rapids, and Hibbing.
Southern Cass, Crow Wing, Aitkin, Pine, and Carlton Counties Minnesota: 5-8″. This includes the cities of Pine River, Brainerd, Hill City, Aitkin, McGregor, Pine City, Hinckley, Moose Lake, Wright, and Cloquet.
Southern St. Louis, Southern Lake, and Southern Cook Counties Minnesota: 4-8″ (possibly more). This includes the cities of Duluth, Floodwood, Cotton, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Lutsen, and Grand Marais.
Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, Iron, Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, and Price Counties Wisconsin: 4-8″. This includes the cities of Superior, Bayfield, Ashland, Hurley, Grantsburg, Spooner, Hayward, and Park Falls.
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Hazards for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin include falling snow combined with north/east winds at 10 to 15 mph with gusts as high as 25 mph near Lake Superior resulting in some blowing and drifting snow for Sunday and Sunday Night. Expect snow and ice covered roads and very hazardous driving conditions from late Tonight through Monday Morning.
*Blizzard Warning has been issued for Sunday/Sunday Night (11am-12am) The blizzard warning includes the cities of Morris, Willmar, and Marshall, Minnesota…Or along and west of a line from Alexandria to Mankato. (NWS Chanhassen, MN hazards map)
*NWS Duluth hazards map. Hot pink=winter storm warning. Purplish color=winter weather advisory.
Tim
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