/Issued 9:04 PM CST, Saturday, December 8th, 2012/
*One thing I haven’t talked much about of is the dump of arctic air behind this winter storm. This map shows the temperatures for 12 PM CST Sunday. Behind the surface low in Southern Minnesota, temperatures early Tomorrow Afternoon will only be in the 10 below zero to 10 above zero range over the Dakotas and far Northwestern Minnesota, while 30s will be found from Southern Minnesota toward the Twin Ports. (Source, RAP model 00z run)
…Even though I’ve seen it before, I’m still amazed at how quick the computer models can change…
*00z model run continues the southward shift. Pretty confident that the heaviest snow will be in Central and Eastern Minnesota on Sunday with lighter amounts of snow for the Iron Range, Arrowhead, and Borderland regions in Northern Minnesota. Still a toss-up for the Twin Ports and along the North Shore of Lake Superior where favorable E/NE winds on Sunday may lead to some lake enhanced snowfall, but temperatures will be marginal.
*Changes to the winter weather headlines are possible by Sunday Morning, will wait and see what the National Weather Service in Duluth decides to do with the various warnings/advisories that are in effect for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
*At 8 PM CST: Low pressure of 1008mb was in Southern South Dakota with an arctic front over far Northwest Minnesota into Western South Dakota. Bitterly cold air was found behind this system in the Northern Rockies, North Dakota, and adjacent parts of Canada This Evening with temperatures in the single digits below to above zero in those areas, while 30s were common ahead of this storm in Southern Minnesota.
*Surface map for 8 PM CST 12/8/12.
*Surface observations for 8 PM CST 12/8/12.
-Low pressure will track east, hugging the Iowa-Minnesota border area on Sunday. As I stated before this track is further south compared to what the computer models were forecasting just 12 hours ago. With the storm track shifting south, so does the corridor of heaviest snowfall.
*Storm track forecast per HPC. Low cuts thru far Southern Minnesota on Sunday. Yesterday it looked like the surface low would track thru Central Minnesota, near St. Cloud and the Twin Cities.
-I’m still expecting measurable snow in the Northland, just not as much as was predicted earlier Today. The snow will begin in Western/Southwest parts of our area late Tonight~after Midnight and will spread E-NE Overnight and Sunday Morning. The snow should continue Sunday Afternoon before tapering off to flurries from west to east Sunday Night.
*Upper Midwest radar loop, ending at 8:30 PM CST 12/8/12.
*6 PM HRRR model run, valid for 9 AM Sunday. It should be snowing by mid-Morning Sunday in much of Central, Eastern, and Southern Minnesota according to this model. The greens represent heavier snowfall rates, the darker the green, the heavier the snow. Note the enhanced area of green along the North Shore of Lake Superior Sunday Morning, this model is picking up on the possibility of some lake enhanced snowfall.
*Snowfall accumulation forecast, ending at 9 AM Sunday. According to this model run from the HRRR, looks like Duluth will have about 1-2″ of snow by 9-10am Sunday with more to come after that. 3-6″ of snow may have fallen already by mid-Morning Sunday in Central and Western Minnesota.
*Updated snowfall totals ending late Sunday Night*
1-3″ for International Falls, Bigfork, Hibbing, Ely, Crane Lake, Orr and the Arrowhead of Minnesota.
3-6″ for Cass Lake, Walker, Brainerd, Grand Rapids, Hill City, Floodwood, Duluth, the entire North Shore of Lake Superior, Cloquet, Wright, Moose Lake, Hinckley, Aitkin, and Pine City. Note: Isolated higher totals on the order of 6-9″ are possible, especially toward Aitkin and Pine City.
3-6″ for all of Northwestern Wisconsin, including the cities of Superior, Solon Springs, Bayfield, Ashland, Hurley, Grantsburg, Spooner, Shell Lake, Hayward, Park Falls, and Phillips.
Tim
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