/Issued 3:20 PM CST, Tuesday, December 11th, 2012/
*The next snow event in the making for the Northland? Here’s the forecast map for Saturday, December 15th, 2012 per HPC. Surface low in Northeastern Kansas at 6 AM Saturday.
*Surface map for Sunday Morning, December 16th, 2012 per HPC. Low pressure reaches Western Lake Michigan. Will have to monitor future model runs to see if this low trends slightly more to the west/north or if it goes farther southeast. Either scenario is possible at the moment.
-2 shots of accumulating snow the next two days, mainly north of the Twin Ports.
-Weekend snow system trending north?
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*Updated LRC forecast for Duluth, Minnesota*
Winter total snowfall continues to increase with each new update.
December-February snowfall total: 61.4″
Normal: 49.5″
Departure: +11.9″
How’s the LRC been doing thus far?
-Dec 6-14 snowfall forecast: 8.4″. So far, we’ve had 7.7″ ending at 6am Today (11th)
-LRC predicted 11 days with snow in December. Actual number so far: 6 days (thru the 11th)
Note: According to the LRC, we could be in store for a very snow January at Duluth, Minnesota. 32.7″ of snow is forecast to fall next month which would be well above the average of 19.4″
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Low temperature report for December 11, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN: 1F
Hibbing, MN: -9F
Ely, MN: -6F
Cook, MN: -8F
Crane Lake, MN: -9F
Eveleth, MN: -8F
Hinckley, MN: -4F
Moose Lake, MN: -2F
Siren, WI: -4F
3 E of Wright, MN: -6F
Embarrass, MN: -11F
3 E of Orr, MN: -15F
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Low pressure of 1006mb was centered north of Lake Superior late This Afternoon with a cold front trailing that low to the southwest through the Northern half of Minnesota. Skies were mostly cloudy Today with times of snow showers and flurries with fluffy accumulations of a few tenths of an inch to around 1″. Southerly winds coming off Lake Superior led to a period of heavier lake effect snow in Cook County Minnesota Today with 1″ reported 6 E of Grand Marais; 1 W of Grand Marais 2.5″; and 3.0″ on the Southeast side of Grand Marais per NWS local storm report. High temperatures were in the teens Today with northwest or southwest winds at 5 to 15 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A northwest flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per RAP model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -10 to -12C in Southern Minnesota to -14 to -16C in Central and Northern Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term – Confidence: High.
Tonight (December 11th)
Expect some more flurries and snow showers throughout our area especially early Tonight, otherwise skies are forecast to remain partly to mostly cloudy. Low temperatures will range from around 10 below to 10 above zero with shifting winds from the west-northwest to the south/east at 5 to 15 mph.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (December 12th)
The cold front which was over Northern Minnesota This Afternoon will more or less stall out in this area Tomorrow and Thursday. One low pressure disturbance will track east along that front on Wednesday, this system will bring some snow to far Northern Minnesota with 1-2″ of accumulation possible for International Falls, Bigfork, Crane Lake, Orr, Ely, and into the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Should remain dry from Eastcentral Minnesota through Northwest Wisconsin. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with highs Tomorrow in the 20s and 30s. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the teens and 20s. Winds will vary from the SW to the south/east at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium
Thursday through Saturday (December 13th-15th)
Another low pressure disturbance passes through Northern Minnesota on Thursday, this one could also bring 1-2″ of snow to the Borderland, Iron Range, and Arrowhead areas while it stays generally dry farther south in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures on Thursday are forecast to range from the teens in far Northern Minnesota to the 20s and 30s elsewhere. Lows Thursday Night will be in the single digits and teens. Friday looks dry at the moment with highs in the 20s and 30s with lows in the teens and 20s.
Looks like another storm could be affecting the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this weekend, but unlike last weekend’s storm, this one will be coming up from the southwest. Remember last weekend’s storm came out of the Northern Rockies. What does this mean? Should be more moisture available with the storm this weekend since it’s digging farther south, so gulf moisture should be able to get involved with this storm.
Uncertainty remains regarding the storm track, although there has been a northward shift in the computer models Today and that does bode well if you want more accumulating snow in the Northland. Previous model runs had the storm on a Kansas to Lower Michigan track, now Today’s runs have it tracking through Southern/Eastern Wisconsin. Too early to say if this west/north trend will continue or not so stay tuned!
Some snow is possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Saturday unless the storm shifts farther south. Will also have to keep an eye on the wind direction as there could be some lake effect snow near Lake Superior this weekend. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 20s and 30s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium
(December 16th-21st)
Low pressure moves through the Central Great Lakes on Sunday (16th) May see some lingering snow and flurries on the back side of this storm in the Northland. Note: It’s too early to say just how much snow could fall in our area this weekend, but the potential for a few inches of snow is there and it could be more than a few inches. A few more snow chances are on the horizon between the 17th-21st, but again way too early to tell if the snow will be significant, or just minor events. Near to above average temperatures are forecast through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Snow showers and flurries mainly early. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 2 to 7. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph, becoming west to northwest This Evening, and south to southeast toward dawn.
.Wednesday… Considerable cloudiness. Flurries possible at times. Milder. High 26 to 31. Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 15 to 20. Wind southwest, becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 25 to 30.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.
.Friday… Partly sunny. High 23 to 28.
.Friday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.
.Saturday… Mostly cloudy. Some snow possible. High 25 to 30.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 23
Low: 9
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:45 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday: 4:20 PM CST
Tim
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