/Issued 3:31 PM CDT, Saturday, March 16th, 2013/
-Winter Weather graphic for Sunday Night and Monday (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
4″ or greater snowfall potential map:
Red=High risk for at least 4″ of snow.
Green=Moderate risk for at least 4″ of snow.
Blue=Slight risk for at least 4″ of snow.
Snowfall report for March 15-16, 2013
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Remer, MN (Cass County) 2.3″
Herbster, WI (Bayfield County) 3.0″
Hibbing, MN (St. Louis County) 1.8″
Mouth of the Brule River, WI (Douglas County) 4.0″
Moose Lake, MN (Carlton County) 3.0″
Culver, MN (St. Louis County) 3.0″
Beaver Bay, MN (Lake County) 2.5″
Cloquet, MN (Carlton County) 4.7″
Gile, WI (Iron County) 4.0″
Silver Bay, MN (Lake County) 3.5″
2 W of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County) 4.9″
3 NE of Nisswa, MN (Crow Wing County) 3.0″
6 W of Two Harbors, MN (St. Louis County) 5.0″
Seeley, WI (Sawyer County) 3.5″
Butternut, WI (Ashland County) 4.3″
*Twin Ports area snowfall totals*
Duluth Heights, MN (St. Louis County) 7.2″
2 SW of Proctor, MN (St. Louis County) 6.3″
West Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 5.5″
5 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 5.3″ official NWS total.
Lester Park, MN (St. Louis County) 5.0″
Superior, WI (Douglas County) 5.0″
Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 4.7″ measured near UMD.
1st half of March 2013 climate summaries for select cities in Minnesota
Note: Stats are for the 1st-15th.
Duluth:
Average temperature: 20.1F
Departure: -2.7 degrees
Total precipitation: 1.22″
Departure: +0.55″
Total snowfall: 18.9″
Departure: +11.3″
International Falls:
Average temperature: 14.7F
Departure: -4.9 degrees
Total precipitation: 0.68″
Departure: +0.31″
Total snowfall: 6.9″
Departure: +2.9″
Twin Cities:
Average temperature: 26.8F
Departure: -2.4 degrees
Total precipitation: 1.62″
Departure: +0.82″
Total snowfall: 10.7″
Departure: +4.7″
St. Cloud:
Average temperature: 22.4F
Departure: -3.4 degrees
Total precipitation: 1.93″
Departure: +1.31″
Total snowfall: 13.1″
Departure: +8.2″
-March 1-15, 2013 temperature departure for the Midwest. A very cool 1st half of the month.
-Precipitation departure map for March 1-15, 2013. Duluth is running around 125% of normal, yes it’s been a wet 1st half of the month.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A very cold mid-March day with highs only in the teens and 20s which is 10-20 degrees colder than average for this time of year. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy with winds out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Portions of our area picked up a nice dumping of snow Friday Evening into early This Morning, some of the heaviest totals were found over the Twin Ports, this was due to a lake band that formed Overnight, caught me off guard that’s for sure.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis
A northwest flow covered the Upper Midwest Today with a strong upper low over Central Canada and another strong system moving into the Pacific Northwest per water vapor satellite imagery. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -14 to -22C in Central and Northern Minnesota to -8 to -12C in Southern Minnesota. Those are some awfully cold temps for mid-March.
-March 14, 2013 snow depth map for Minnesota. Note only Southwestern Minnesota has 2″ or less of snow on the ground. A deep snow pack continues in Central and Northern Minnesota.
-Snow depth map for March 15, 2012. Notice how much different this March is compared to last March when it comes to the snow depth. Incredible!
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (March 16th)
A ridge of high pressure averaging 1026-1032mb will build into the Upper Midwest. Clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast with a few Evening flurries possible. May see some lake effect snow showers as well Tonight along the South Shore of Lake Superior with 1-3″ of accumulation possible, mainly over Ashland and Iron County. It’s going to be a very cold night across the Northland as low temperatures fall into the single digits and teens below to around 10 above zero but some spots in Northern Minnesota could drop into the 20s below. Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Sunday and Sunday Night (March 17th)
High pressure moves off to our east on Sunday with strong low pressure moving into the Northern Plains by Sunday Night. Dry Tomorrow with partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the teens and 20s with winds becoming southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Look for snow to overspread the Northland from west to east Sunday Night as a strong low level jet (40-65 knots) develops out ahead of that low to our west, this LLJ will result in a warm/moist advection pattern over the Upper Midwest which will aid in snow development during the night. Temperatures Sunday Night will be in the teens and 20s with southeast winds at 10 to 25 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium on Monday. High for Tuesday/Wednesday.
Monday through Wednesday (March 18th-20th)
On Monday will see a fairly strong area of low pressure pass through the Upper Midwest and Northern Great Lakes. The exact track of the low is uncertain at the moment with 2 of the Foreign models (UK and CANADIAN) digging this system more causing a more southerly track to the low vs. the NAM, GFS and ECMWF which have the low on a more northerly track. I believe the Northern track will verify, but still have to watch how the models handle things during the next 24 hours.
Assuming the Northern track is right, will see a period of snow on Monday (lasting about 6-8 hours in any one spot) The snow will end from SW-NE Monday Afternoon. Should the Southern track end up being right, then heavier snow and strong winds would likely continue into Monday Night.
*How much snow will fall?*
-I’m thinking 3-6″ for all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with the best chance to reach the 5-6″ mark occurring in Northern Minnesota, including the Iron Range and Borderland area.
-Will likely see the NWS issue some kind of a winter weather headline by Sunday.
After Monday, the weather looks cold but pretty quiet outside of a few flurries for Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs on Monday will be in the teens and 20s with a few 30s possible in Northwest Wisconsin. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the single digits to around 20 degrees. Lows Monday Night will be in the single digits below to teens above zero. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the single digits and teens below zero.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(March 21st-26th)
Below average temperatures are forecast through this period, also looks kinda quiet with a more amplified weather pattern developing. The main storm zone should shift into the Southern/Eastern U.S. the way it looks now with this new pattern that is forecast to develop.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Very cold. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 below to 10 below. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills approaching 20 below Overnight.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 20 to 25. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Sunday Night… Increasing cloudiness during the Evening. Snow developing around Midnight and continuing through the Overnight hours. Low 15 to 20. Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday… Snow during the Morning with flurries and snow showers in the Afternoon. Total snowfall accumulations of 2-6″ possible. High 25 to 30.
.Monday Night… Flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 13 to 18.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 2 below to 7 below.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 12 to 17.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 34
Low: 18
Sunrise Sunday: 7:17 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday: 7:18 PM CDT
Tim
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