/Issued 4:16 PM CDT, Saturday, August 24, 2013/
-Thunderstorms later Tonight? The 19z (2pm) HRRR model run seems to think so as do earlier runs from this forecast model. Around Midnight Tonight the HRRR model shows a nice area of rain/thunderstorms affecting much of Northern Minnesota and far Northern Wisconsin. Not really buying into this more southern solution though, but one thing I am liking is the strong low level jet which could increase to around 50 knots later in the night, this could help generate some storms during the night. Wait and see!
-Should thunderstorms occur Tonight then some much needed rain would fall. The HRRR model hints at widespread 1/2″-1″ totals by Sunday AM with even some isolated pockets of 2″ amounts. Hope for the best, but I’m very skeptical at any of this happening especially down toward the Twin Ports area.
*HEAT ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Timing:
11 AM Sunday until 9 PM CDT Monday.
Location:
Portions of East Central Minnesota and all of Northwest Wisconsin.
Counties included in the advisory:
Southern Cass MN
Crow Wing MN
Aitkin MN
Pine MN
Carlton MN
Southern St. Louis MN
Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Burnett WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI
Some cities included in the advisory:
Pine River MN…Brainerd MN…Hill City MN…Aitkin MN…Pine City MN…Hinckley MN…Moose Lake MN…Cloquet MN…Duluth MN…Floodwood MN… Superior WI…Solon Springs WI…Bayfield WI…Ashland WI…Hurley WI…Grantsburg WI…Minong WI…Spooner WI…Shell Lake WI…Hayward WI…Winter WI…Exeland WI…Park Falls WI…and Phillips WI.
Discussion:
High temperatures in the 90s both Sunday and Monday with heat index values ranging from 95 to 105 degrees.
Impacts:
The very warm temperatures and high heat index values will be especially dangerous for those most at risk such as those in poor health and the elderly.
A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids…Stay in air-conditioned room…Stay out of the sun…And check up on relatives and neighbors.
-Areas in orange are under a heat advisory for Sunday and Monday. (Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota)
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
-Today is the 10th consecutive day that the high temperature reached at least 80 degrees (15th-24th)
-16 days and counting since the last measurable rain (0.01″ or greater) August 8.
-19 days and counting since the last quarter inch or more of rain (August 5)
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Temperatures are warming up and the humidity is climbing! High pressure covered the Eastern Great Lakes with low pressure to our northwest and a warm front entering Western Minnesota. Southerly winds developed Today across the region which ushered in a much more humid airmass as dew points climbed into the 60s to around 70 degrees. High temperatures were in the 80s to around 90 with 70s along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Skies were partly to mostly sunny Today and winds were out of the south or southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
-Visible satellite imagery from late This Afternoon. Cloud streets showing up nicely This Afternoon in Northeast Minnesota. Note how the clouds are lined up generally from south-north which matches the surface wind which is out of the south Today. Note: Cloud streets are long rows of cumulus clouds oriented parallel to the direction of the wind. Pretty neat stuff!
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (August 24)
A warm and muggy night under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could occur at times, mainly in Northern Minnesota. If storms do develop they could produce locally heavy rain and dangerous lightning with a lesser chance for severe thunderstorms capable of producing high winds and hail. There is plenty of instability to support convection Tonight and mid level winds do increase during the night along with a strengthening low level jet of 30-50 knots…These are all positives for thunderstorm development. The trigger is also present with the approach of a warm front and an upper level disturbance. The negatives would be the cap (warm temps aloft) 700s around +10C and 850s of around +20C. Lows Tonight will be in the 60s and 70s with southerly winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Sunday and Sunday Night (August 25)
Heat blast! Sunday looks awfully warm throughout the Northland as west-southwest winds develop ahead of an approaching cold front. 850mb temperatures of +20 to +24C and 925mb temperatures approaching +30C should result in surface temperatures climbing into the 90s over much of the Northland on Sunday. Although not likely, there’s even a chance that a few locations approach 100 degrees Sunday PM…This would be most likely in East Central Minnesota and possibly in Downtown Duluth and Superior where the WSW wind results in compressional heating off the hill. Note: The recent dry spell could also play a bit of a role in producing near 100 degree temps in parts of our area and this is supported by recent model runs of the NAM. Low temperatures Sunday Night will only fall into the 70s. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with a few showers and thunderstorms possible mainly Sunday Evening/Overnight from Eastern Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Monday through Wednesday (August 26-28)
A boundary looks like it will setup in Central Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin early next week before it pushes farther south on Wednesday. Ample amounts of instability and moisture will be found near this front and this could lead to a few showers and thunderstorms every now and then from Monday into Tuesday. Looks like Northern Minnesota will stay mainly dry this period and dew points also look a bit lower compared to areas farther south. High temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s Monday and Tuesday with mainly 80s on Wednesday. It should be cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior through this period.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(August 29-September 3)
A slightly cooler and less humid airmass for late next week (29-30) And then there are signs that the heat/humidity will rebuild Labor Day weekend (31st-2nd) Not looking too promising for any widespread rain during this period, but a few showers and thunderstorms are certainly possible especially from the 31st-2nd) Above average temperatures are forecast during this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
*HEAT ADVISORY from 11am Sunday until 9pm CDT Monday*
.Tonight… Warm and muggy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly late. Low 67 to 72. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday… Hot and humid. Partly cloudy. Record or near record highs possible. High 92 to 97. Wind west to southwest at 15 to 20 mph. Note: Record high temperature for Sunday is 95 degrees. Peak heat index values of 95 to around 105 degrees.
.Sunday Night… Warm and muggy. Partly cloudy. Low 70 to 75. Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 85 to 90. Peak heat index values around 95 degrees.
.Monday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 85 to 90.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 73
Low: 53
Sunrise Sunday: 6:19 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday: 8:00 PM CDT
Tim
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