/Issued 3:42 PM CDT, Thursday, October 17, 2013/
*12z GFS model run from Today still shows the potential for the season’s 1st accumulating snow event in Northern Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin. This would be for Sunday Afternoon into Monday based on the latest data. Stay tuned. (Source, TwisterData.com)
…Short term drought is improving in both Minnesota and Wisconsin…
*Drought monitor as of October 15, 2013*
Source: Climate Prediction Center
Minnesota:
-64% of the state is Abnormally dry; Down from 70% last week.
-28% of the state is in Moderate drought; Down from 37% last week.
-0% of the state is in Severe drought; Down from 7% last week.
Note: 35% of Minnesota is free of drought; Up from 29% last week.
Wisconsin:
-53% of the state is Abnormally dry; Down from 54% last week.
-26% of the state is in Moderate drought; Same as last week.
-6% of the state is in Severe drought; Down from 8% last week.
Note: 46% of Wisconsin is free of drought; Up from 45% last week.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Heights are falling as the weather pattern begins to change. The 1st sign of this change is taking place Today as several disturbances are tracking through the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes with 12-hour 500mb height falls of 60-120 meters. This combined with a cold front which has been moving slowly toward the south/east has resulted in widespread drizzle and light rain in the Northland Today with daytime highs only in the 40s with lower 50s in Northwest Wisconsin. Not much wind Today with generally north or northwest winds ranging from 5 to around 12 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (October 17)
Light rain and drizzle should persist through the night in Northwest Wisconsin and over Eastern and Northeast Minnesota with a lower chance for showers over Northern Minnesota. Probably won’t see any snow mix in with the rain Tonight as surface temperatures should remain just warm enough to prevent any frozen precipitation from mixing in. Lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s with north or northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph.
*Not a lot of rain Tonight as totals remain generally around 0.25″ or less with a few spots possibly receiving up to 0.50″ of rain by dawn. (Source, 18z – 1pm HRRR model run)
Friday and Friday Night (October 18)
An upper level trough will start to dig S/SE into the Upper Midwest with a reinforcing boundary moving through the area as well. Scattered showers are expected at times and some of those showers could fall in the form of ice pellets and or snow flakes, especially by Friday Night. Highs Tomorrow will mainly be in the 40s with lows mainly in the 30s. Winds will be out of the south or west at 5 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Saturday through Monday (October 19-21)
Scattered showers in the form of snow, rain, or ice pellets are possible on Saturday as a cold upper trough covers the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes. An Alberta Clipper is forecast to drop SE out of Northwest Canada on Sunday and Monday. This system could bring some snow or rain to parts of the Northland depending on the track of the storm. There is still potential that portions of our area could pick up a few inches of snow with this clipper from Sunday PM into Monday. Stay tuned.
High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s from Saturday through Monday with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the 20s and 30s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(October 22-27)
Below average temperatures are forecast through this period. No big precipitation events are expected as we sit in a ‘drier’ north/northwest flow pattern, but this will also open up the doors for the occasional disturbance to drop south out of Canada which could trigger a few snow or rain showers from time to time.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Light rain and drizzle. Mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 42 to 47. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday Night… A few rain or snow showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… A few rain or snow showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45.
.Saturday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.
.Sunday… Mostly cloudy. Rain or snow possible during the Afternoon. High 40 to 45.
.Sunday Night… Rain or snow possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 28 to 33.
.Monday… Snow showers or flurries. Mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 51
Low: 35
Sunrise Friday: 7:31 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 6:16 PM CDT
Tim
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