/Issued 6:36 PM CST, Saturday, January 11, 2014/
*Water vapor satellite image from 5:30 PM CST January 10, 2014. (Source, intellicast.com)
A very strong surface low/upper level trough is over the Northwest U.S. This Evening. This system heads east into Minnesota on Sunday.
*18z WRF model out of the National Weather Service Duluth, MN is a more extreme solution with Tomorrow Morning’s storm. This model actually keeps most of the precip as snow which results in a quick 1-4″ of accumulation. Note the yellow color on the map which represents 4″ of snow. Will see what happens.
*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY including the city of Duluth*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
A winter weather advisory has been issued for parts of Northern and Northeast Minnesota from 3 AM Sunday Morning until 12 PM CST Sunday Afternoon.
Counties included in the advisory:
Koochiching MN
Itasca MN
Cass MN
Crow Wing MN
Aitkin MN
Carlton MN
St. Louis MN
Some cities included in the advisory:
International Falls…Bigfork…Grand Rapids…Cass Lake…Walker…Pine River…Brainerd…Hill City…Aitkin…McGregor…Moose Lake…Cloquet…Duluth…Floodwood…Hibbing…Ely…and Crane Lake.
Discussion:
Light snow or a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow will occur early Sunday Morning through early Sunday Afternoon in the advisory area.
Snow and ice accumulations:
1-2″ of snow is possible especially in far Northern Minnesota. Ice accumulations generally less than one tenth of an inch.
Impacts:
Slick road conditions and hazardous travel late Tonight and Sunday Morning.
**A winter weather advisory for light freezing rain and mixed precipitation means roads, sidewalks and other untreated exposed surfaces will become slick and hazardous due to a light coating of ice. Use extreme caution when walking or driving and be especially aware of bridges, overpasses, ramps, and other elevated surfaces. Allow extra time to reach your destination**
*Area in purple is in a winter weather advisory from 3 AM until 12 PM CST Sunday. (Source, NWS hazards map)
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
-A potent storm is over the Pacific Northwest early This Evening with 12-hour height falls of 90-150 meters. An upper trough was moving east-southeast over that area while a very strong surface low averaging 980mb was over Southwestern Saskatchewan.
-This system will track east into the Upper Midwest and Central Canada during the next 24-30 hours. As this system moves east it will weaken a bit as pressures come up to around 985mb by Sunday Night but a 985mb low is still very strong.
-There will be a period of precipitation that affects parts of the Northland beginning early Sunday Morning and continuing into early Sunday Afternoon. Note: The computer models are not in the best agreement though so confidence on this event is relatively low which isn’t good considering its less than 12 hours away.
-If precipitation does occur it will likely be in the form of sleet, freezing rain, or snow. Surface temperatures should be in the 20s to around 30 degrees Sunday Morning, but temperatures up at 850mb will be warming to between 0 and +3C which will lead to a possible mix bag of precipitation.
-Weather conditions should improve Sunday Afternoon as the precipitation moves away from the Northland. Temperatures will remain mild Tomorrow with highs mainly in the 30s, can’t even rule out a stray 40 degree temperature especially over the Western portion of the area.
*Surface map forecast valid for Noon CST Sunday. (Source, NCEP/WPC)
Pink=Freezing rain/mixed precipitation.
Blue=Snow.
Green=Rain.
*Precipitation forecast valid 6 AM-12 PM Sunday. Less than 0.10″ of precipitation in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
Tim
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