/Issued 3:36 PM CST, Sunday, January 12, 2014/
-Here’s what I’m thinking for snowfall accumulations for Monday Night/Tuesday AM. Bulk if not all of the snow looks like it will pass south of the Twin Ports. Could see the track of this next low come north a bit though, if it does then that would push the snow band farther north. Stay tuned.
Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, MN (Airport location)
January 5-11, 2014
High temperatures:
1/5: -9F/28 degrees below average
1/6: -15F/34 degrees below average
1/7: -5F/24 degrees below average
1/8: 0F/19 degrees below average
1/9: 15F/4 degrees below average
1/10: 27F/8 degrees above average
1/11: 28F/9 degrees above average
Low temperatures:
1/5: -26F/28 degrees below average
1/6: -28F/30 degrees below average
1/7: -24F/26 degrees below average
1/8: -18F/20 degrees below average
1/9: -11F/13 degrees below average
1/10: 14F/13 degrees above average
1/11: 24F/23 degrees above average
Total precipitation: 0.01″
Normal: 0.23″
Departure: -0.22″
-Temperature departure map for last week. Incredible deficits for the 2nd week in a row across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region – see legend below. (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)
-The brutal cold temperatures most of last week also resulted in a very dry weather pattern across Minnesota. Duluth saw just 0-2% of it’s normal precipitation amount for last week. (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)
Local storm report for January 12, 2014
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
*10:21 AM CST: FREEZING RAIN. 0.10″. 5 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)
*10:01 AM CST: FREEZING RAIN. 0.10″. Lake Nichols, MN (St. Louis County)
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January has started out no so snowy in the Twin Ports – stats below.
January 1-12: 1.5″
Departure: -6.6″
December 1-January 12: 41.4″
Departure: Around +16″
Annual total: 46.4″
Departure: +4.5″
Note: Last year we had 25.2″ of snow through January 12th so were ahead by 21.2″ this year vs. last year at this time.
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Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
A changeable weather day as deep low pressure of 986mb moved east into Western Ontario. A warm front trailing south of that low moved into the Northland Today and brought with it a period of freezing rain, sleet, and snow with light accumulations of ice which was enough to produce very hazardous travel conditions in portions of the Northland from This Morning into the early Afternoon hours.
By This Afternoon temperatures had warmed into the 30s to lower 40s under partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies although the Arrowhead of Minnesota still had some fog and light mixed precipitation at times with temperatures in the upper 20s. Winds Today were out of the south or southwest at 5 to around 15 mph.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (January 12)
An area of low pressure will pass through Western/Central Ontario Tonight while a cold front heads southeast out of the Northern Plains. A few snow showers and flurries could develop across the Northland Tonight as that cold front moves through. Lows will be in the single digits to the 20s with winds becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Monday and Monday Night (January 13)
Most of Tomorrow looks dry with highs in the teens and 20s. By late Monday Afternoon but more so from Monday Evening through the Overnight hours an Alberta Clipper drops southeast out of the Northern Plains. This system should bring some snow to Western-Southern parts of the Northland with accumulations of 1-3″ possible. Flurries and a little bit of light snow could occur as far north as Grand Rapids, Duluth, and into most of Northwest Wisconsin but only very light accumulations are expected in these areas the way it looks now.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with lows Tomorrow Night ranging from the single digits below to single digits above zero in Northern Minnesota to the teens and 20s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
Winds on Monday will be out of the north or west at 5 to 15 mph. Winds Monday Night will be out of the south, north, or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tuesday through Thursday (January 14-16)
Light snow and flurries could linger into Tuesday Morning from Eastern Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin as clipper #1 exits to the southeast. Tuesday PM into Wednesday looks dry, and then the next clipper system moves in from Wednesday PM into Thursday with another round of snow possible with minor to a few inches of accumulation possible with that mid-week system.
High temperatures will be in the single digits to around 20 on Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the teens, and 20s with highs on Thursday in the teens and 20s. Lows Tuesday Night will range from the single digits and teens below to single digits above zero. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the teens and 20s.
Note: A bigger concern for that Wednesday/Thursday storm may be the wind and the potential for blowing snow and possible blizzard conditions over the Dakotas and Western/Southern parts of Minnesota. 850mb wind speeds per GFS and EURO model are in the 40-50+ knot range with >60 knot H85 winds possible over the Northern Plains. The snow pack may have a decent crust on it now with the recent warmup which would make it harder for the snow to blow around, but any new snow that falls between Monday and Thursday would result in considerable blowing and drifting in open areas. Certainly something to watch in coming days.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(January 17-22)
Near to below average temperatures are forecast this period, but any cold shot we get shouldn’t last very long given the current pattern that were in. No major storms standing out through this period, maybe a weak snow event every now and then.
-500mb forecast valid for Wednesday, January 15, 2014. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
-The next ‘Polar Vortex’ may setup more in Eastern Canada vs Central Canada like what we saw early last week. The map below is valid for Saturday, January 18, 2014. And if this verifies, then the heart of the real serious cold air would stay east/northeast of the Northland next weekend. (Source, Weather Prediction Center)
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. A few flurries possible after Midnight. Low 15 to 20. Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest late.
.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 18 to 23. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Monday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. Low 10 to 15. Wind light and variable becoming north at 5 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Flurries possible early. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 15 to 20.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 1 below to 4 above.
.Wednesday… Increasing cloudiness. High 20 to 25.
.Wednesday Night… Light snow possible. Low 15 to 20.
.Thursday… Light snow or flurries possible. High 25 to 30.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 19
Low: 1
Sunrise Monday: 7:51 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 4:45 PM CST
Tim
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