/Issued 2:29 PM CST, Wednesday, January 15, 2014/
*Here’s the 18z RAP model QPF — Precipitation forecast valid through 6 AM CST Thursday. Liquid equivalent amounts of 0.10-0.40″ will fluff up to 1-4″ of snow in NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin Tonight…The greater amounts will likely be north of Duluth.
*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
-Winter weather advisory until 4 PM CST Thursday for Koochiching…Northern Itasca…and Northern St. Louis Counties in Northern Minnesota…Click on this link for additional information: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory
-Click on this link for information regarding the blizzard warning which covers parts of Western, Central, and Southern Minnesota: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=blizzard%20warning
2013 annual state of the climate was released Today by NOAA.
*Tied with 1980 as the 37th warmest year on record, but was 2.9 degrees colder than the warmest year on record which was in 2012.
*Was the coolest year since 2009.
*More cold weather records vs. warm weather records.
Warm=26,000. Cold=29,000
*Driest state: California. Wettest state: Michigan. Warmest state: Alaska. Coldest state: Arkansas.
*Quietest tornado year since 1989? Preliminary tornado count for 2013 thru September is at 742 with 149 preliminary tornado reports for October-December. As it stands now the preliminary tornado count for 2013 is at 891 well below the average of 1,253 (1991-2010) This would also be the lowest number of tornadoes in a year since 1989 which had 856 confirmed tornadoes.
*54 tornado related fatalities.
*5 severe weather and tornado outbreaks with at least 1 billion dollars in damage in each one.
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Strong low pressure averaging 980mb was over Western Manitoba This Afternoon with very impressive 2-hour pressure falls of 4-7mb covering most of Minnesota as of 2 PM. Lots of warm air advection is also moving into the Upper Midwest to the southeast of this deep low in Manitoba. 850mb temperatures at 2 PM ranged from +2 to +6C over most of North Dakota and South Dakota to -10 to -16C across the Northland. This warm air advection (WAA) is also leading to an area of snow which has moved into Northern and Central Minnesota This Afternoon. Sunshine to start the day gave way to increasing clouds during the Afternoon with late day temperatures in the single digits to around 10 degrees. Winds increased out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
-Water vapor satellite image from 2:15 PM CST Today. Here’s the basic setup that’s in place late This Afternoon.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (January 15)
Snow will fall at times across the entire Northland Tonight as low pressure of 980-984mb drops southeast out of Western Manitoba This Afternoon to far Northern Minnesota by dawn. Temperatures will be rising into the teens and 20s during the night, might even see a few 30s in Southern parts of the area after Midnight. Winds will be out of the south or west at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
-NWS hazards map.
Red=Blizzard warning
Green=Blizzard watch
Purple=Winter weather advisory
Brown=High wind warning/advisory
Thursday and Thursday Night (January 16)
Low pressure is forecast to be over Northeast Minnesota Tomorrow Morning this low heads southeast toward Northeastern Wisconsin by Thursday Evening and then into Northern Michigan by Friday AM. As this low drops southeast it will weaken as pressures increase from 988mb Thursday AM to 1000mb by Friday AM.
Even though the surface low weakens during this period the pressure gradient remains very tight with 850mb winds of 30-45 knots widespread across the Northland during this period. Strong cold air advection will also occur from NW-SE on Thursday with 850mb temperatures falling to between -12 and -20C during the day.
Snow showers and flurries will be common in our area Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night under a considerable amount of cloudiness with clearing skies from north to south Thursday Night.
Temperatures to start the day will range from the teens to the low 30s with falling temperatures into the 0 to 20 above range by the Afternoon. Lows Thursday Night will range from the single digits, teens, and 20s below in Northern Minnesota to the single digits below to single digits above zero in Northwest Wisconsin.
Winds will be out of the north or northwest this period at 10 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph expected. Wind chill values should fall into the 15 below to 30 below range from Thursday Afternoon into Thursday Night.
Snowfall accumulation forecast through Thursday:
A half inch to 2″ of new snow should be common in most of East Central Minnesota, Northwest Wisconsin, also including the Twin Ports of Duluth and Superior. Snow accumulations of 3-5″ may occur over the Iron Range, Arrowhead, and Borderland region and also along the North Shore of Lake Superior, especially from Silver Bay to Grand Portage where periods of lake enhanced snow is possible Tonight. Also, the South Shore of Lake Superior will likely get heavier lake effect snow starting late Thursday Afternoon continuing into Friday AM…Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties could pick up >4″ of accumulation during that time frame.
Note: The gusty winds during the 24-36 hours will also lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow with possible whiteout conditions developing at times in open areas.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: ***Low to Medium***
Friday through Sunday (January 17-19)
Snow showers (lake effect variety) should be winding down on Friday along the South Shore of Lake Superior as winds veer. The rest of the Northland should be dry during the day.
Friday Night and Saturday Morning will feature another clipper low which will drop south/southeast out of Manitoba. The track of this system will continue to be monitored. As of right now the NAM is the snowiest solution for the Northland. The GFS, UK, Canadian models have this system tracking more to the west which would keep snow amounts down except for possibly around the Brainerd Lakes area. Stay tuned!
The Saturday Night/Sunday period is also uncertain at the moment with possibly a strong baroclinic zone (temperature gradient) setting up under a fast NW flow aloft across the Upper Midwest. If we are in the warm sector, then mainly dry weather and thawing temperatures would occur over the Northland. Should we enter or stay on the cool side of this gradient, then we would be susceptible to get additional snow late this weekend along with cooler temperatures.
High temperatures on Friday will be in the single digits and teens. Highs on Saturday will be in the teens and 20s. Highs on Sunday have huge bust potential and could range anywhere from the teens to as warm as the 30s to around 40 degrees. Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the single digits below to teens above zero.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(January 20-25)
Northwest flow aloft persists during this period with several clipper systems dropping southeast out of Northwest Canada. If these clippers take a favorable track, then the Northland could get some snow at times from the 20th-25th. Near to below average temperatures are expected this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Periods of snow. Breezy. Temperatures rising into the 20s. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Areas of blowing snow possible. New snowfall accumulations of around 1″.
.Thursday… Windy and turning colder. Occasional snow showers and flurries with areas of blowing snow. High 25 to 30 with temperatures falling into the single digits. Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph. New snowfall accumulations of 1″ or less.
.Thursday Night… Breezy. Flurries possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 below to 10 below. Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 7 to 12.
.Friday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible late. Low 0 to 5 below.
.Saturday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible during the Morning. High 10 to 15.
.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 0 to 5.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 19
Low: 1
Sunrise Thursday: 7:48 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 4:49 PM CST
Tim
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