/Issued 2:38 PM CST, Tuesday, January 21, 2014/
-NWS hazards map.
Lake effect snow advisory Wednesday AM-Thursday AM along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin. Most of this lake effect snow should remain south/east of the city of Superior. More details below…
Weather Tidbits:
Source: NOAA
*All 13 years of the 21st century (2001-2013) rank among the 15th warmest in the 134 year record period.
*2013 Global temperature tied for the 4th warmest since 1880.
*The average Global temperature in December 2013 was the 3rd highest for December since 1880.
*2013 marked the 37th consecutive year where the Global temperature was warmer than average.
January-December 2013 land and ocean temperature anomalies. Source: NOAA.
December 2013 land and ocean temperature anomalies. Source: NOAA.
Low temperature report for January 21, 2014
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN: -20F
International Falls, MN: -25F
Brainerd, MN: -25F
Grand Marais, MN: -22F
Hibbing, MN: -28F
Hayward, WI: -25F
Sky Harbor, MN: -17F
Two Harbors, MN: -20F
Silver Bay, MN: -24F
Ely, MN: -29F
Orr, MN: -27F
Cook, MN: -29F
Crane Lake, MN: -33F
Eveleth, MN: -24F
Bigfork, MN: -29F
Grand Rapids, MN: -26F
Longville, MN: -29F
Pine River, MN: -27F
Aitkin, MN: -26F
Moose Lake, MN: -22F
Hinckley, MN: -22F
Cloquet, MN: -20F
McGregor, MN: -24F
Superior, WI: -19F
Siren, WI: -24F
Duluth, MN (NWS) -22F
12 N of Isle, MN: -26F
3 E of Wright, MN: -30F
Cass Lake, MN: -27F
Babbitt, MN: -36F
Embarrass, MN: -37F
Floodwood, MN: -33F
4 E of Island Lake, MN: -27F
Kabetogama, MN: -29F
3 E of Orr, MN: -34F
4 W of Clam Lake, WI: -22F
Gordon, WI: -26F
Winter, WI: -24F
Togo, MN: -35F
Not much snow in Duluth so far this month.
Through January 20, 5.8″ of snow at the Duluth Airport. The average for January is 19.4″. Can we pick up over a foot of snow during the final 10 days of the month? I don’t see it happening given the pattern were in.
Here are just a few cities in the U.S. that have had more snow this month compared to Duluth, Minnesota.
Milwaukee, WI: 12.6″
Chicago, IL: 27.2″
Rockford, IL: 10.9″
Indianapolis, IN: 23.3″
Cincinnati, OH: 9.6″
Pittsburgh, PA: 9.5″
Note: When looking at climate data for the period 1981-2010, January is our snowiest month of winter in Duluth, followed by December, and then February.
December average: 17.7″
January average: 19.4″
February average: 12.4″
It should also be noted that January (19.4″) averages more snow than March (13.2″) in Duluth.
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*LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
A lake effect snow advisory has been issued for parts of Northwest Wisconsin along the South Shore of Lake Superior.
Timing:
9 AM Wednesday until 6 AM CST Thursday.
Counties included in the advisory:
Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Some cities included in the advisory:
Superior WI…Lake Nebagamon WI…Poplar WI…Brule WI…Cornucopia WI…Port Wing WI…Washburn WI…Bayfield WI…Iron River WI…Moquah WI…Ashland WI…Odanah WI…High Bridge WI…Hurley WI…Gile WI…and Upson WI.
Discussion:
Lake effect snow develops Wednesday Morning and picks up in intensity Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Night. North winds gusting to 25 mph will cause considerable blowing and drifting snow. Travel will become difficult with snow and blowing snow reducing visibility below one half mile. Area roadways will become slippery.
Total snowfall accumulations:
3-7″ with locally higher amounts possible especially over Ashland and Iron Counties.
**A lake effect snow advisory means lake effect snow is forecast that will make travel difficult in some areas. Lake effect snow showers typically align themselves in bands and will likely be intense enough to drop several inches of snow in localized areas. Use caution when traveling**
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Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
High pressure of 1026mb has pushed off to our south/southeast This Afternoon while low pressure heads east through the Northern Plains. Southerly flow in between the high and low is resulting in a warm air advection pattern in the Upper Midwest late Today. An area of light snow and snow flurries has developed in response to this WAA that is occurring in the Upper Midwest. As of 3 PM light snow was falling as far east as Hibbing and Aitkin while the entire Northland was under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures were in the single digits below to around 0 with light and variable winds or southerly winds at 5 to 15 mph.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (January 21)
Light snow and flurries will be common Tonight as low pressure along with a few disturbances track through the Northland. Snowfall totals won’t be significant though due to all the cold and dry air in place. Overall I’m thinking anywhere from a dusting to 1″ of snow by daybreak with a few locales possibly getting up to 2″. Snow ratios will be on the high side Tonight ranging from 20:1 to around 30:1 so if the snow that does fall Tonight can fluff up to it’s full potential then there certainly would be 3, even 4″ totals…I don’t see that happening though. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with temperatures in the single digits below to single digits above zero. Winds out of the south This Evening will shift to the west/northwest Overnight at 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (January 22)
Low pressure moves over the Central/Eastern Great Lakes this period while a strong arctic high of around 1050mb builds south into the Northern Plains. Another shot of bitterly cold air moves into the region Tomorrow on gusty northwest winds. Highs will be in the single digits below to around 10 above zero with lows in the single digits, teens, and 20s below…Might even see a few spots up North dip into the 30s below. Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Snow showers and flurries will come to an end by Tomorrow Afternoon. The exception to this will be along the South Shore of Lake Superior where heavy lake effect snow could develop Tomorrow Afternoon through Tomorrow Night.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Thursday through Saturday (January 23-25)
Cold but dry on Thursday with highs in the single digits below to single digits above zero. Another brief warmup takes place Thursday Night and Friday and along with the warmup will come the risk for some snow showers and flurries with minor accumulations possible. Bitterly cold air returns Friday Night and Saturday along with mainly dry weather. Highs on Friday will be in the teens and 20s with some 30s even possible in Southern parts of the Northland. Highs on Saturday will range from 10 below to the single digits above zero. Lows Thursday Night ranging from the teens below to single digits above zero. Lows Friday Night will be in the single digits and teens below.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(January 26-31)
Below average temperatures will persist through this period and along with the colder than average temps will come the never ending northwest flow aloft and with the NW upper level flow will come the occasional clipper system that could dust the area with some snow.
*Setup for Saturday, January 25, 2014.
PV=Polar Vortex
X’s=Pieces of bitter cold air breaking off the vortex which will be over Hudson Bay/Eastern Canada.
*Setup for Monday, January 27, 2014. Not much change. Still see a ridge out west and the polar vortex over Eastern Canada with shots of bitter cold air passing through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
*But look what may happen on January 31, 2014. Note the ridge (bulge) out west is gone and is replaced with more of a west-east flow. Will see if this actually verifies or not, still over a week away.
Note: All 3 maps are off the 12z ECMWF ensemble model from Today.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
*LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR SUPERIOR*
Timing: 9 AM Wednesday until 6 AM CST Thursday.
.Tonight… Light snow and flurries. Accumulations of 1″ or less. Considerable cloudiness. Low 1 below to 4 above. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest after Midnight.
.Wednesday… Breezy. Snow showers or flurries possible mainly during the Morning. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 5 to 10. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Cold. Low 15 below to 20 below. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Thursday… Partly cloudy. High 3 below to 2 above.
.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 below to 10 below.
.Friday… Milder. Mostly cloudy. Snow showers and flurries. High 25 to 30.
.Friday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 0 to 5.
.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 0 to 5.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 19
Low: 1
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:44 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday: 4:57 PM CST
Tim
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