/Issued 3:17 PM CST, Tuesday, February 11, 2014/
*Radar snapshot from 4:18 PM Today. Notice the colors, most of the DBZ’s are less than 15 which means that this snow is generally on the light side. Movement of the snow is toward the east.
*Here’s the 20z (2 PM) RAP model snowfall forecast valid for Tonight. Not much snow with this one. Generally a dusting-1″ for most, maybe 2″ in isolated spots.
*RECORD EVENT*
23 consecutive days with a sub-zero low temperature at Duluth, Minnesota (January 20-February 11) This is an all-time record! The previous record was 22 days from January 17-February 7, 1936 and from January 10-January 31, 1963.
*Today marks the 57th day so far this winter with a below zero low temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.
Low temperature report for This Morning February 11, 2014
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN: -17F
International Falls, MN: -27F
Brainerd, MN: -23F
Hibbing, MN: -29F
Hayward, WI: -27F
Two Harbors, MN: -20F
Silver Bay, MN: -27F
Grand Marais, MN (Airport) -26F
Ely, MN: -29F
Cook, MN: -31F
Crane Lake, MN: -31F
Eveleth, MN: -27F
Bigfork, MN: -27F
Grand Rapids, MN: -24F
Longville, MN: -29F
Pine River, MN: -26F
Gordon, WI: -26F
Aitkin, MN: -24F
Moose Lake, MN: -26F
Hinckley, MN: -26F
Cloquet, MN: -22F
McGregor, MN: -26F
Siren, WI: -25F
Phillips, WI: -28F
Duluth, MN (NWS) -19F
3 E of Wright, MN: -29F
Cass Lake, MN: -22F
Babbitt, MN: -35F
Brimson, MN: -34F
Embarrass, MN: -36F
Floodwood, MN: -28F
3 E of Orr, MN: -31F
Kabetogama, MN: -27F
Gurney, WI: -22F
Upson, WI: -29F
4 W of Clam Lake, WI: -26F
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
A warm air advection pattern has developed with high pressure now over the Southern Great Lakes with low pressure off to our west-northwest. Mostly sunny skies prevailed in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota Today while skies became mostly cloudy across Northern Minnesota, there’s also been some flurries and snow showers in that area due to the approaching low from the Northern Plains. Highs Today were mainly in the teens with increasing southerly winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph This Afternoon in North Central Minnesota.
*Great Lakes ice coverage is at 80% as of February 11, 2014; Lake Superior is at 88% ice coverage. Wow! Source, GLCFS Ice Dynamics.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (February 11)
Expect mostly cloudy skies or in some areas becoming mostly cloudy This Evening. A band of generally light snow will move east-southeast through the Northland Tonight as low pressure and a cold front track through the region. Snow accumulations will remain on the light side totaling about 1″ or less in most spots with a few locales possibly reaching the 2″ mark by daybreak. Lows will range from around 10 below in far Northern Minnesota to the single digits and teens above zero elsewhere. South or southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts will shift to the northwest late Tonight over Northern Minnesota.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (February 12)
A few flurries or snow showers may linger before 8-9 AM Tomorrow mainly over Northwest Wisconsin. Otherwise it looks dry in our area through Tomorrow Evening. Highs on Wednesday will be in the single digits and teens with west or northwest winds at 10 to 15 mph.
A fairly strong clipper system will be heading into the Northern Plains Wednesday Night. Clouds will increase over the Northland with snow moving in from the west-northwest during the Overnight hours. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits below to the teens above zero with winds becoming south/east at 5 to 15 mph.
*Most of Northern Minnesota and far Northern Wisconsin is in a slight risk category for at least 4″ of snow from late Wednesday Night into Thursday. Source, Weather Prediction Center.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Thursday through Saturday (February 13-15)
Low pressure is forecast to move east through Central/Eastern Minnesota on Thursday and should reach the Central/Eastern Great Lakes region by Thursday Night. Snow is expected across the entire Northland Thursday Morning with snow tapering off to snow showers and flurries from west to east Thursday Afternoon.
Note: This system has the potential to produce a widespread 1-3″ snowfall with a band of 3-5″ of snow possible over a smaller portion of the Northland…Where that heavier band of snow sets up remains a little uncertain late This Afternoon, but right now based on model data it would likely target the Highway 2 corridor, including the Iron Range and North Shore of Lake Superior.
Dry weather returns late Thursday Night through Saturday, although there will be another system diving south/southeast out of the Northern Plains on Saturday, but right now it looks like most of the snow would remain west/south of our area.
High temperatures on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s. Highs on Friday and Saturday will mainly be in the teens. Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night will range from teens below to single digits above zero.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(February 16-21)
Some snow could return to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Sunday into Monday as another fast moving system tracks through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
By mid/late next week the computer models continue to show a pattern change as a southwest flow aloft develops with a trough out west and a ridge across the south/east. With this type of setup there could be a stronger storm that comes out of the Rockies or Southwest U.S. sometime between the 19th-23rd. Whether this storm impacts Minnesota or Wisconsin is unclear, and if it hits would the precipitation fall as rain, snow, or a wintry mix? Still plenty of time to watch the trends in coming days. Stay tuned.
Expect near to above average temperatures from the 16th-21st.
*12z GFS model valid for next Friday, February 21, 2014. This type of pattern that is shown in this image can help spin up a storm over the Rockies which could then lift toward the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Something to keep an eye on, but yes it’s out in fantasy land at the moment.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Light snow especially between 7 PM-1 AM. Total accumulations of 1″ or less. Low 5 to 10. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Wind decreasing to 10 to 15 mph late.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 12 to 17. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday Night… Clouding up. Snow possible mainly after 2 AM. Low 0 to 5. Wind becoming east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Snow possible. Accumulations of 2-4″ possible. High 18 to 23.
.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 3 below to 2 above.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 8 to 13.
.Friday Night… Mostly clear. Low 5 below to 10 below.
.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 10 to 15.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 23
Low: 5
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:18 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday: 5:29 PM CST
Tim
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