/Issued 2:37 PM CST, Friday, February 14, 2014/
*Snow depth map issued at 11 AM Today per RAP model. Most of the Northland has at least 15″ of snow on the ground with many spots in our area having a snow depth of up to 25″. More numbers below.
After Thursday’s record snowfall in Duluth lets take a look at how were doing for the winter, February, and the annual total.
February 1-13 snow total: 7.5″
Departure: +2.2″
December 1-February 13 snow total: 56.8″
Departure: +14.4″
Note: Last winter’s total thru February 13th: 35.2″
Difference: +21″ this winter vs. last.
July 1-February 13 snow total: 61.8″
Departure: +3.3″
Note: Last year’s annual total thru February 13th: 46.5″
Difference: +15″ this year vs. last.
*RECORD EVENT*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
A record 24 hour snowfall total was broken at Duluth, MN on February 13, 2014. Yesterday’s snowfall total of 5.6″ beat the previous record of 3.3″ set in 1962.
Snow depth report for February 14, 2014
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN: 23″
International Falls, MN: 25″
7 NW of Brainerd, MN: 17″
12 N of Isle, MN: 21″
3 E of Wright, MN: 17″
Cass Lake, MN: 20″
Babbitt, MN: 28″
Cook, MN: 27″
Embarrass, MN: 24″
Floodwood, MN: 21″
Grand Portage, MN: 24″
4 E of Island Lake, MN: 25″
3 E of Orr, MN: 23″
Finland, MN: 32″
Ashland, WI: 26″
Gurney, WI: 31″
Park Falls, WI: 24″
Upson, WI: 28″
9 N of Bayfield, WI: 32″
Solon Springs, WI: 18″
Washburn, WI (Highway Department) 44″
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Lots of sunshine throughout the Northland Today but temperatures were on the chilly side with highs only in the teens. Winds were out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
*94% of Lake Superior is covered with ice Today. Here’s a visible satellite image from 2 PM Today. The white circled area represents some open water along the North Shore, but with east winds expected this weekend the ice farther east should push toward the west represented by the black arrows on this map. Source, Dupage model site.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (February 14)
High pressure which is over Eastern South Dakota late This Afternoon will head southeast Tonight while a disturbance heads southeast out of Manitoba. Mostly clear skies This Evening will give way to partly to mostly cloudy skies later Tonight. Some light snow and flurries will likely move into Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead Overnight due to that Manitoba disturbance. Lows Tonight will range from the teens below to the single digits above zero. Northwest winds will become southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
Saturday and Saturday Night (February 15)
An Alberta clipper will move southeast through the Northern Plains and into Southern Minnesota-Iowa Tomorrow while a weaker disturbance lingers farther north here in the Northland. Mostly cloudy skies are forecast during this period with light snow and flurries at times.
The cold airmass in place will lead to high snow ratios of 20:1 to around 30:1 so there is certainly a possibility for 1-2″, maybe up to 3″ of snow over portions of the Northland by late Tomorrow Night. There seems to be 2 favored areas where a few inches of snow could accumulate this period. The 1st area looks like it may be down toward the Brainerd Lakes region. The 2nd area would be in Northern Minnesota, including over the Iron Range, Arrowhead, and North Shore.
East wind coming off Lake Superior could lead to some orographic lift along the North Shore Tomorrow into Tomorrow Night and this may boost snow totals just a bit. True lake effect snow probably won’t develop though due to the extensive ice cover over Lake Superior.
High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the single digits to the lower 20s. Lows Saturday Night will range from around 10 below to 10 above. East winds are forecast this period at 5 to around 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Sunday through Tuesday (February 16-18)
High pressure over Ontario will keep the area dry on Sunday. The next system moves in Sunday Night into Monday with dual low pressure stretching from Manitoba to the Central Plains. Moisture returning north ahead of this low and cold front will result in another round of snow across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from late Sunday Night into mid Afternoon Monday. Note: There is potential for several inches of snow with this system, possibly exceeding 4-5″ over parts of the area. Dry weather returns Monday Night and Tuesday.
High temperatures on Sunday will be in the teens and 20s. We warm into the 20s and 30s then for Monday and Tuesday as we get into a more Pacific airmass. Low temperatures Sunday Night will be in the single digits below to the teens above zero. Lows Monday Night will be in the teens and 20s.
*Weather Prediction Center has all of NE Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin in a Moderate or High risk for getting at least 4″ of snow from late Sunday Night through Monday. Pretty bold considering this event is still a few days away. Will see what happens.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(February 19-24)
A pattern featuring an upper level ridge from the Southern through Eastern U.S. and a trough over the Western U.S. is expected from the 19th-22nd. This type of pattern may help to generate 1-2 stronger low pressure systems which will eject out of the Rockies or Plains at some point between the 19th-22nd.
Note: The computer models are not in the best agreement regarding the timing, strength, and track of these storms but that’s not unusual since it is still a good 5 days away. If these storms lift into the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes region, then the Northland could see some decent snowfall or possibly a mix bag of precipitation between the 19th-22nd. Stay tuned!
Temperatures are forecast to be near or above average through the 21st, then near to below average temperatures are possible from the 22nd-24th.
*7-day precipitation forecast valid through Friday, February 21, 2014. Anywhere from a half inch to 1″ of QPF is expected by next Friday, most of this should fall as snow in our area so we could be looking at upwards of 6-12″ of new snow by this time next week, of course this is all subject to change depending on the storm tracks.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Clear This Evening. Partly to mostly cloudy after Midnight. Low 0 to 5 below. Wind northwest around 10 mph becoming southeast Overnight.
.Saturday… Considerable cloudiness. Light snow or flurries possible. High 12 to 17. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Saturday Night… Light snow and flurries mainly before Midnight. Accumulations of around 1″ possible. Considerable cloudiness. Low 0 to 5. Wind east to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 15 to 20.
.Sunday Night… Mostly cloudy. Snow possible after Midnight. Low 10 to 15.
.Monday… Snow possible. Mostly cloudy. High 26 to 31.
.Monday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 24
Low: 6
Sunrise Saturday: 7:13 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 5:34 PM CST
Tim
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