/Issued 3:26 PM CST, Monday, February 17, 2014/
Today’s trough went negative! Whenever you get a negative tilted trough it usually means that a storm is very potent and has a lot of energy. I think the only thing that saved us from getting more snow than what we had Today was the fact that this storm moved through quickly, if it moved slower I think parts of of the area would have picked up at least 10″ of snow.
Here’s the 12z UKMET model map at 6 AM Today. I highlighted the trough axis in black, watch how this trough evolves between 6 AM and 6 PM Today.
6 PM map from the 12z UKMET model. See how the black line on the map is more sharply oriented in a NW-SE direction? Pretty cool stuff!
Here’s a 12-hour water vapor satellite loop from Today ending at 1:30 PM Today. You can sorta see how this system over the Upper Midwest bends back toward the final few frames – the trough takes on a negative tilt. Source, Unisys weather.
*Snowfall report for February 17, 2014*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Note: Totals listed below may not represent the final amount.
5 NW of Two Harbors, MN (Lake County) 5.0″
3 W of Phillips, WI (Price County) 2.8″
West Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 4.5″
3 E of Orr, MN (St. Louis County) 3.4″
5 N of Two Harbors, MN (Lake County) 7.0″
Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield County) 4.0″
2 NE of Lutsen, MN (Cook County) 6.0″
5 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 5.6″ NWS total thru 2:35 PM Today.
4 S of Sawyer, MN (Carlton County) 4.7″
3 N of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County) 3.5″
Saginaw, MN (St. Louis County) 5.0″
International Falls, MN (Koochiching County) 3.5″
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
A very snowy mid February day across much of the Northland thanks to a potent weather system which continues to deepen as it heads east/northeast through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes late This Afternoon. Multiple bands of moderate to heavy snow affected the area Today with snowfall rates of up to 1″ per hour occurring from This Morning into the mid Afternoon hours. Temperatures Today ranged from the teens along the North Shore and over the Arrowhead to the 20s elsewhere. Winds were either from the east/southeast or the southwest at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (February 17)
Snow late This Afternoon over Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will be ending from SW-NE through 7 PM. Behind this area of snow could be some patchy fog or even some light freezing drizzle, but that shouldn’t last too long. Otherwise for Tonight look for mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies with lows in the single digits to around 20. Winds will be out of the south or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night (February 18)
Low pressure will pass north of the border during this period with a cold front tracking through the Northland from west to east. The big news will be the thawing temperatures that occur Tomorrow with daytime highs mainly in the 30s, might even see a few 40s around the area. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with a few flurries or snow showers possible up along the Minnesota/Ontario border. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits and teens. Winds will be out of the west, southwest, or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: ***Low to Medium***
Wednesday through Friday (February 19-21)
The forecast on Wednesday is pretty straight forward. Looks mainly dry during the day with highs in the 20s and 30s. The period from Wednesday Night through Friday needs to be watched closely as low pressure to our northwest and over the South Central Plains attempt to phase later this week as they move into the Great Lakes. How soon they phase will be key as to whether the Northland sees a significant winter storm or just minor amounts of snow.
The models Today keep the ‘heaviest’ snow just south/east of here, but our area would get at least a little bit of snow especially from Eastern Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin. Again though the potential is there for this storm to shift farther west, or it could go even farther to the east. Stay tuned! Note: The earlier the phase the greater the odds for a winter storm ( I think)
High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 20s and 30s. Colder air moves in on Friday with highs in the single digits to around 20. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 20s to around 30. Lows Thursday Night will be in the single digits and teens.
Weather Prediction Center’s storm track map ending at 6 AM Thursday. I added the possible storm tracks from Thursday Afternoon into Friday AM (White lines on the map) The farthest left track would be the one you want to see for a winter storm here in the Northland, that one seems to be the less likely scenario at the moment, but things could change.
*Here’s the 4″ or greater snowfall potential map for Wednesday Night through Thursday Evening. A low to moderate risk covers most of Wisconsin and an area from Southern to Northeastern Minnesota. Source, Weather Prediction Center.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(February 22-27)
Below average temperatures are expected through this period as we get into a pattern that will be favorable for a couple shots of late season arctic air. Not much snow is expected though or at least any significant quantity of snow.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Patchy light freezing drizzle and fog possible during the Evening. Considerable cloudiness. Low 15 to 20. Wind south to southwest around 10 mph.
.Tuesday… Warmer. Partly to mostly sunny. 1st time above freezing since January 12. High 34 to 39. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 15 to 20. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 30 to 35.
.Wednesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Light snow or a wintry mix of precipitation possible. Low 20 to 25.
.Thursday… Mostly cloudy. Light snow possible. High 27 to 32.
.Thursday Night… Mostly cloudy. Light snow possible. Low 5 to 10.
.Friday… Partly sunny. Colder. High 10 to 15.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 25
Low: 7
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:08 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 5:38 PM CST
Tim
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