/Issued 3:16 PM CST, Tuesday, February 18, 2014/
Possible storm tracks for Thursday/Friday.
Note: Number 3 and 4 would be decent tracks for snow here in most of the Northland. Tracks 1 and 2 would probably be less favorable for a winter storm for us. Also keep in mind will be dealing with a trough that extends W-NW of the low to our southeast, plus a mid-upper level trough which is expected to turn negatively tilted, so plenty of things that could give us some snow outside of the actual track to the surface low.
Surface map valid at 6 AM CST Thursday. Source, NDFD/WPC.
Surface map valid at 6 PM CST Thursday. Source, NDFD/WPC.
4″ or greater snowfall probability forecast valid for Thursday – ending at 6 PM CST. Source, Weather Prediction Center.
4″ or greater snowfall probability forecast valid for Thursday Night and Friday Morning. Source, Weather Prediction Center.
Snow stats for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
February total thru the 17th: 15.2″
Departure: +8.2″
Winter snow total (December 1-February 17) 64.5″
Departure: +20.4″
Last winter’s total thru February 17: 35.4″
Difference: +29″ more of snow this winter compared to last
Annual snow total (July 1-February 17) 69.5″
Departure: +9.3″
Last year’s annual total thru February 17: 46.7″
Difference: +22″ more of snow this year compared to last year thru the 17th of FEB.
*RECORD EVENT*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
6.0″ of snow fell in Duluth, Minnesota on February 17 which ties the 24 hour snowfall record of 6.0″ which was set in 1972.
Note: Today February 18 has been the warmest day in Duluth since November 20. High temperature so far Today at the Airport 40 degrees. The high temp back on the 20th of November was 44 degrees. Today also marks the 1st time since January 12 with a high temperature at or above 32 degrees.
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
A well deserved break from the arctic air and snow Today. A hint of early spring in the Northland under clear to partly cloudy skies. High temperatures soared into the mid 30s to mid 40s with winds out of the south, west, or northwest at 5 to 15 mph. Fog was a big issue in some parts of the area This Morning, this was especially true near Lake Superior where visibilities were down to near zero at times, this fog burned off by early Afternoon.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (February 18)
Low pressure will be passing through Western and Central Ontario Tonight. Expect partly cloudy skies in our area with low temperatures ranging from the single digits to around 20. Some snowmelt which occurred Today could result in fog formation Tonight so beware of that potential if you have travel plans. Winds will be out of the west at around 10 mph.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (February 19)
Areas of fog may linger into Wednesday Morning, otherwise the daytime hours will be dry under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Another mild day is on tap although probably not as warm as Today. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 30s with 20s over the Arrowhead and along the Minnesota/Ontario border. Winds will be out of the south or west at 5 to 15 mph. Changes start to occur Wednesday Night as low pressure moves into the Northern Plains while another low heads into the South Central Plains. Could see some light snow or a wintry mix of precipitation develop over parts of the Northland during the Overnight hours with lows in the teens and 20s. Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Thursday through Saturday (February 20-22)
The potential for a significant winter storm to impact parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin appears to be increasing Today based on model data.
Dual low pressure – one over Northwest Minnesota and the other over Southeast Kansas Thursday Morning are forecast to phase over the Western-Central Great Lakes region Thursday Night. As this occurs the surface low is forecast to deepen drastically with pressures dropping from around 993mb on Thursday to possibly as low as 976mb by early Friday Morning.
The upper level trough associated with this whole system is expected to become negatively tilted and it may do so in a big way Thursday Night.
As I stated yesterday the earlier the phase/negative tilt trough can develop I think the better chances for a winter storm to hit the Northland. If these things happen later (which is still possible by the way) then that would probably result in a much lower chance for a winter storm at least in Northeastern Minnesota.
Note: There remains uncertainty with the storm track and the timing of the phase and any changes to those things could change the forecast, possibly in a big way. Stay tuned!
The National Weather Service in Duluth has issued a *WINTER STORM WATCH* for all of Northwest Wisconsin and for parts of Eastern/Northeast Minnesota including the Interstate 35 corridor, Twin Ports, North Shore, and Arrowhead for Thursday Afternoon through early Friday Afternoon.
Onto the details:
Snow is forecast to become more widespread and could be heavy at times from Thursday Afternoon into Friday AM from Eastern/Northeast Minnesota through all of Northwest Wisconsin. Snow chances will decrease farther west from Brainerd to International Falls. Along with the snow and the deepening surface low will come strengthening winds from Thursday Evening through Friday. Wind gusts of 20-30+ mph could develop and may result in a considerable amount of blowing and drifting snow and possible blizzard conditions in some parts of the Northland.
After this storm moves away the weather looks quieter in our area from Friday Afternoon through Saturday.
High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows ranging from the single digits to the 20s. Highs on Friday will range from the single digits to the 20s with lows in the single digits. Highs on Saturday will be in the single digits and teens.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(February 23-28)
Below average temperatures are expected during this period with a north or northwest flow aloft which should help to bring some cold shots of air down into the Upper Midwest. The threat for any big storm also diminishes with this type of pattern.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
Event: *WINTER STORM WATCH*
Timing: Thursday Afternoon through Friday Afternoon.
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Areas of fog possible. Low 13 to 18. Wind west around 10 mph.
.Wednesday… Areas of fog possible early. Partly to mostly sunny. High 35 to 40. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 22 to 27. Wind southeast around 10 mph.
.Thursday… Snow possible. High 29 to 34.
.Thursday Night… Snow possible. Turning windy. Low 10 to 15. Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph.
.Friday… Windy. Snow possible during the Morning. Flurries during the Afternoon. Colder. High 15 to 20. Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph.
.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 0 to 5 below.
.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 7 to 12.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 25
Low: 7
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:06 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday: 5:39 PM CST
Tim
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