/Issued 3:22 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 25, 2014/
Preliminary snowfall accumulation forecast valid for Wednesday Night and Thursday.
Storm track for Thursday and some thoughts about this system.
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
A large area of high pressure averaging 1028mb stretches from the Northern Plains to the Central Plains as of 3 PM. The Northland remains to the east of this high so cold temperatures continued Today with highs only in the mid teens to lower 20s which is a good 20 degrees or so colder than average for late March. Partly to mostly sunny skies were common Today with patchy flurries here and there. Winds were out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (March 25)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue Tonight with high pressure moving off to our south/east during the night. Another cold night ahead with lows ranging from the teens below to around 10 above. West winds will shift to the south late Tonight.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (March 26)
A broad area of low pressure will be moving into the Western High Plains region with a southerly flow occurring ahead of this system. Temperatures will warm a bit this period but will still be below average. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with near steady temperatures Tomorrow Night. South or east winds are forecast at 10 to 20 mph.
We should see some snow develop from late Tomorrow Afternoon through Tomorrow Night across Northern Minnesota while a mixture of snow, freezing rain, and sleet occurs from East Central Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin especially during the Overnight hours. Note: A nose of warm air up at 850mb will support this mix bag of precipitation types across Southern parts of the Northland late Tomorrow Night.
Extended Forecast (Thursday through Saturday, March 27-29)
Confidence:
Thursday: Medium to Low.
Friday and Saturday: High.
Still looks like will be dealing with a broad area of low pressure which will stretch from Kansas into Minnesota Thursday Morning…This system will move toward the east and is expected to reach the Eastern Great Lakes region by Friday Morning.
As this system moves through it will be weakening. No hints of any closed low or negative tilt to this system. Looks like it will remain fairly progressive as well. What this all means is that the chance for a significant storm is rather low on Thursday.
We should still get some precipitation, however through late Afternoon Thursday before we dry out Thursday Night.
A mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and even some rain is possible on Thursday over Northwest Wisconsin and East Central Minnesota with snow in Northeast Minnesota. Note: Locations that do see a mixture of precipitation should trend to all snow during the day Thursday as cooler air wraps into this system.
Keep in mind that there could be some changes in the models during the 24 hours or so which could lead to increased precipitation amounts or even less precipitation for our area. Stay tuned.
Right now I’m going with about 1-3″ of snow in most of our area between late Wednesday Night and Thursday Evening. The North Shore may see higher snowfall amounts thanks to lake enhancement but even this is questionable with marginal temperatures in place.
Will probably see some advisories issued for parts of the Northland, but this event doesn’t look worthy enough for winter storm warnings.
Dry/quieter weather returns for Friday and Saturday.
High temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s on Thursday and Friday with highs Saturday in the 30s and 40s. Lows Friday Night will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero. Lows Saturday Night will be in the teens and 20s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
(March 30-April 4)
Near to above average temperatures are expected on Sunday (30th) Some parts of the Northland may actually climb into the 50s on Sunday. ‘
Two storms to monitor for next week. The 1st looks like it would come Sunday Night through Monday with possible snow or mixed precipitation. The 2nd storm to watch could occur during the April 2nd-4th time frame with snow or mixed precipitation possible once again. The storm tracks for both systems are highly uncertain at this time so stay tuned. Expect near to below average temperatures from March 31-April 4.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 0 to 5 below. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. Wind becoming south late at 5 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 27 to 32. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Light snow or a mixture of precipitation possible especially after Midnight. Low 25 to 27. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Light snow possible. Mostly cloudy. High 28 to 33.
.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 10 to 15.
.Friday… Partly sunny. High 25 to 30.
.Friday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.
.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 32 to 37.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 38
Low: 21
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:00 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 7:30 PM CDT
Tim
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