/Issued 3:15 PM CDT, Wednesday, March 26, 2014/
4″ or greater snowfall probability forecast valid through 7 PM CDT Thursday. Source, Weather Prediction Center.
Red=High risk for at least 4″ of snow
Green=Moderate risk for at least 4″ of snow
Blue=Slight risk for at least 4″ of snow
Purple=Winter Weather Advisory
Low temperature report for This Morning, March 26, 2014
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
International Falls, MN: -17F
Hibbing, MN: -13F
Hayward, WI: -10F
Two Harbors, MN: -9F
Silver Bay, MN: -15F
Ely, MN: -17F
Crane Lake, MN: -18F
Cook, MN: -15F
Eveleth, MN: -15F
Bigfork, MN: -11F
3 E of Wright, MN: -11F
Babbitt, MN: -18F
Embarrass, MN: -20F
Floodwood, MN: -12F
Kabetogama, MN: -16F
3 E of Orr, MN: -16F
Upson, WI: -16F
4 W of Clam Lake, WI: -14F
Gordon, WI: -10F
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
A few areas of low pressure averaging 994mb were over the Central Rockies and Western High Plains region late This Afternoon. A southerly flow was occurring ahead of these lows Today which is resulting in a warm air advection pattern throughout the Upper Midwest. Afternoon temperatures ranged from the 50s in Southwestern Minnesota with 60s and even some 70s over Southern portions of South Dakota. It was cooler here in the Northland with highs ranging from the mid 20s to mid 30s. Partly to mostly cloudy skies were found in our area Today with south or east winds at 10 to around 20 mph.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Tonight (March 26)
Low pressure will stretch from South Dakota to Kansas with a strengthening low level jet of 40-55+ knots extending from the Central Plains to the Western Great Lakes. A warm and moist advection process will lead to increasing chances for precipitation during the night.
All snow for areas north of Highway 2 this would include the North Shore, Arrowhead, Iron Range, and Borderland region. South of here expect either snow or a mixture of precipitation as temperatures aloft warm through the night.
Temperatures will hold fairly steady in the 20s and low 30s Tonight with south or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.
Thursday and Thursday Night (March 27)
An area of low pressure is forecast to move northeast out of the Central Plains and should move into Eastern Michigan by daybreak Friday.
A couple things have changed compared to yesterday.
The low pressure itself looks like it will be a bit stronger with pressures holding sub-1000mb/likely in the 993-996mb range as it lifts out of the Central Plains. The mid/upper level trough also looks a little more compact at least for a time as it crosses the Upper Midwest on Thursday.
What this all means is that precipitation may be heavier than what it looked like 24 hours ago, overall though this still looks like a quick moving storm, but it could be intense at least for a hours.
East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin should have a mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and possibly even some rain with precipitation trending to all snow from west-east in that area during Thursday Afternoon.
Northeast Minnesota, including the Arrowhead, North Shore, Twin Ports, Iron Range, Brainerd Lakes region should see mainly snow Tomorrow although there could be some mixed precipitation especially during the Morning hours.
Note: I have increased my snowfall totals for this event. In general I’m thinking 3-5″ of snow by Thursday Night with the North Shore possibly seeing up to 7″ of snow. See map below.
Use caution if you have travel plans around the area Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. Roads will be snow covered and slippery in spots with limited visibility at times in falling snow.
The weather should improve Tomorrow Night as low pressure moves over the Central Great Lakes.
Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with lows in the teens and 20s. Winds on Thursday are forecast to be out of the south, east, or north at 10 to 20 mph. Winds Thursday Night will shift to the north/west at 10 to 25 mph.
—————————————
Note: The National Weather Service has issued a *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* for snow, sleet, and freezing rain which is in effect from 10 PM Tonight until 10 PM CDT Thursday for the following Counties:
Cook MN
Lake MN
Central and Southern St. Louis MN
Carlton MN
Pine MN
Aitkin MN
Crow Wing MN
Cass MN
Southern Itasca MN
Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Burnett WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI
Some cities included in the advisory:
Grand Marais
Lutsen
Silver Bay
Finland
Isabella
Two Harbors
Hibbing
Floodwood
Duluth
Cloquet
Moose Lake
Hinckley
Aitkin
Hill City
Brainerd
Walker
Leader
Cass Lake
Grand Rapids
Superior
Solon Springs
Bayfield
Port Wing
Washburn
Drummond
Ashland
Butternut
Gile
Hurley
Upson
Siren
Shell Lake
Spooner
Minong
Trego
Hayward
Winter
Exeland
Park Falls
Phillips
————————————–
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Friday through Sunday (March 28-30)
Friday looks dry at this time with cool high temperatures which will mostly be in the 20s. Lows Friday Night will be in the single digits and teens. We warm up this weekend with high temperatures in the 30s on Saturday with 30s and 40s expected for Sunday, some areas may even surpass 50 degrees on Sunday. The next chance for precipitation will come either Sunday or more likely Sunday Night as low pressure develops and moves into the Western High Plains region. Rain or snow is possible in our area by Sunday Night as this system inches closer to the Upper Midwest.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
(March 31-April 5)
The potential is there for another storm to affect the Northland early next week mainly centered on Monday (31st) Significant amounts of snow, rain, or mixed precipitation are all possible with this system, although the trends Today are for more of a snow event compared to a rain event. Things could change though in coming days.
Another storm has trended farther south in Today’s model runs for the middle/end of next week (April 2-4) Right now on its present track this system wouldn’t affect our area, but this too could change in coming days.
Temperatures are forecast to be below seasonal averages through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
Event: *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing: 10 PM Tonight until 10 PM CDT Thursday.
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Light snow developing after Midnight which could be mixed with sleet or freezing rain. Low 24 to 28. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Thursday… Snow. Sleet or freezing rain possible early. High 28 to 32. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Thursday Night… Snow ending early. Mostly cloudy. Total storm accumulations of 3-5″ possible. Low 10 to 15. Wind becoming north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Partly sunny. High 25 to 30.
.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.
.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 32 to 37.
.Saturday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 47 to 52.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 39
Low: 22
Sunrise Thursday: 6:58 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 7:31 PM CDT
Tim
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