/Issued 5:08 PM CDT, Friday, April 25, 2014/
Here’s the 1/4″ or greater ice accumulation probability forecast valid for Sunday Evening-Monday. Source, Weather Prediction Center.
The next 7 days has the potential to be quite wet across much of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes with widespread 1-2″+ precipitation totals possible, this forecast is valid through Friday, May 2, 2014. Source, Weather Prediction Center.
The weather pattern is a sluggish/blocked up one next week with an upper level ridge to our north and an upper low to our southwest. Here’s the 500mb forecast for Monday, April 28, 2014. Source, Weather Prediction Center.
500mb forecast for Wednesday, April 30, 2014. Only slight changes in the overall ridge/upper low position between Monday and Wednesday. Source, Weather Prediction Center.
Snowfall report for April 24-25, 2014
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
13 ESE of Gunflint Lake, MN (Cook County) 13.5″
3 WSW of Lutsen, MN (Cook County) 10.2″
Silver Bay, MN (Lake County) 9.5″
2 NW of Two Harbors, MN (Lake County) 7.7″
6 W of Two Harbors, MN (St. Louis County) 7.5″
Duluth Heights, MN (St. Louis County) 7.0″
Lakewood Township, MN (St. Louis County) 6.5″
Cook, MN (St. Louis County) 6.0″
2 NNW of Grand Marais, MN (Cook County) 6.0″
5 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 4.9″ NWS total
Ely, MN (St. Louis County) 4.8″
Brimson, MN (St. Louis County) 4.5″
Embarrass, MN (St. Louis County) 4.0″
Wrenshall, MN (Carlton County) 3.6″
International Falls, MN (Koochiching County) 3.4″
*RECORD EVENT*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Record 24 hour snowfall at Duluth, Minnesota on April 24, 2014.
New record: 4.3″
Previous record: 3.7″ set in 1950.
Note: 2013-14 snowfall total is at 130.2″ making it the 3rd snowiest season on record at Duluth, Minnesota. Were 1.6″ shy of 2nd place which is 131.8″ (1949-50) and 5.2″ away from the all-time snowiest season which was 135.4″ set in 1995-96.
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Low pressure averaging 1006mb was over the Central Great Lakes late This Afternoon with high pressure over Northern Ontario. Partly to mostly cloudy skies were common Today with instability type showers of rain, ice pellets, and snow. A wide range in temperatures around the area Today with 30s over the Arrowhead to the 50s in Southern areas with 40s in between. Note: Western-Southern sections of Minnesota had temperatures in the 60s and low 70s Today. Winds were out of the north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (April 25)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue Tonight with spotty early Evening showers which could be mixed with snow or sleet in spots. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with north/northwest winds turning to the northeast at 5 to 15 mph.
Saturday and Saturday Night (April 26)
A strong area of low pressure averaging 983-988mb will be moving through the Rockies and toward the Western High Plains while high pressure builds south out of Northern Ontario. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected this period with showers possible at times especially by Tomorrow Night in Western-Southern areas. Highs will range from the 30s near Lake Superior to the 40s and 50s elsewhere. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s. East or northeast winds are expected at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts developing near Lake Superior.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Sunday through Tuesday (April 27-29)
A powerful storm system will move slowly toward the east-northeast as it passes through the Central Plains with strong high pressure of over 1040mb covering Hudson Bay and Ontario. The pressure difference between that low to our south and high to our north will lead to an extended period of strong east to northeast winds near Lake Superior from Sunday through Tuesday. Wind speeds of 15-30 mph will likely occur with gusts possibly reaching 45-50 mph.
The amount of precipitation that occurs this far north is uncertain due to the presence of that high to our north which will advect dry air into our area which could eat away at the precipitation as it tries to push north.
If precipitation does occur, most of it should be in the form of rain. However, near Lake Superior especially along the North Shore could be a different story thanks to the ice covering the lake still. As the onshore wind blows off this ice pack it may keep temperatures chilly enough to support winter precipitation I.E. snow, sleet, or freezing rain from Sunday-Tuesday. This situation will have to be watched closely as there could be a significant amount of snow and or ice accumulations between Sunday and Tuesday near Lake Superior, again though it’s unclear just how much precipitation will occur this far north. Stay tuned.
High temperatures from Sunday through Tuesday will range from the 30s near Lake Superior with 30s and 40s elsewhere. Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will mainly be in the 30s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(April 30-May 5)
Chances for rain or possibly mixed precipitation will continue Wednesday and Thursday (April 30-May 1) as a slow moving storm system passes through the Great Lakes. Might dry out between May 2-3, and then another system could bring some showers to the Northland on the 4th-5th. Below average temperatures are forecast through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 27 to 32. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming northeast late.
.Saturday… Breezy. Partly sunny. High 35 to 40. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph.
.Saturday Night… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph.
.Sunday… Windy. Rain, sleet, or snow possible. High 32 to 35. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible.
.Sunday Night… Windy. Rain, sleet, snow, or freezing rain possible. Low 30 to 32. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible.
.Monday… Windy. Rain, sleet, snow, or freezing rain possible. High 32 to 35. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible.
.Monday Night… Mostly cloudy. Rain or mixed precipitation possible. Low 30 to 32.
.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 54
Low: 34
Sunrise Saturday: 6:02 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 8:12 PM CDT
Tim
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