/Issued 4:15 PM CDT, Thursday, October 2, 2014/
Tonight’s rainfall forecast per 15z HopWRF model. Generally a quarter to half inch of rain is expected across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
A small area in Northwest Minnesota has a slight chance for at least 4″ of snow on Friday (Blue area on the map) Source, Weather Prediction Center.
15z SREF snowfall accumulation forecast showing an area of 1-2″, maybe up to 3″ of snow on Friday in west central areas of Minnesota.
Rainfall report for October 1, 2014
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN: 0.64″
Grand Marais, MN: 0.72″
Ashland, WI: 0.71″
Hayward, WI: 0.90″
3 E of Wright, MN: 0.29″
Ely, MN: 0.43″
Embarrass, MN: 0.25″
Grand Portage, MN: 0.41″
Gunflint Lake, MN: 0.75″
Finland, MN: 0.74″
Butternut, WI: 0.45″
Gurney, WI: 0.41″
9 N of Bayfield, WI: 0.87″
4 W of Clam Lake, WI: 0.60″
Gordon, WI: 1.06″
Weather Summary for October 2, 2014
Location: Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Lots of weather going on out there. There’s a strong upper level low dropping southeast into the Northern Plains Today while another system heads northeast out of the Central Plains. An F-GEN band of rain has developed between these systems across Central and Eastern Minnesota and far Western Wisconsin This Afternoon. Skies were generally overcast across the Northland Today with a few brief glimpses of sun here and there. High temperatures were mainly in the 50s and winds were light and variable in direction at around 5-12 mph.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (October 2)
Rain will affect east central and northeast Minnesota as well as all of northwest Wisconsin Tonight, but the rain will end from SW-NE by later This Evening, the exception to this could be over the Arrowhead as well as eastern sections of northwest Wisconsin where some rain could linger through the Overnight hours. Low temperatures Tonight will be in the 40s to low 50s and winds will shift to the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Friday and Friday Night (October 3)
An area of low pressure will lift north into the Central/Eastern Great Lakes region Friday Morning before it moves into east central Ontario by Friday PM. As this system heads north it will interact with additional energy dropping into the Upper Midwest – this will help to deepen the surface low to our east with pressures dropping from around 996mb Tomorrow Morning to around 983mb by late Friday Night.
Expect some rain across the Northland at times on Friday and Friday Night. 850mb temperatures are forecast to fall to between 0 and -6C during this period while critical thickness values drop to favorable levels to produce frozen precipitation. Note: The temperatures near the surface should be fairly marginal however to produce all snow, but there should be some pretty good lift that moves SE through portions of the Northland Friday Afternoon/Night and this may help to cool the surface temperatures enough to allow for a period of snow – at the moment it looks like Western-Southern parts of the Northland stand the best chance at seeing a period of snow Friday Afternoon and or Night with the possibility for a half inch of snow accumulation mainly on grassy surfaces. Snow totals of 1-2″ can’t be ruled out yet, but these higher snow amounts would only occur if the snow lasts long enough, and if the snow falls heavy enough to cool the surface allowing for the snow to accumulate.
High temperatures on Friday will hold steady in the 40s or fall into the 30s in some locales. Lows Friday Night will mainly be in the 30s. Northwest winds are expected this period at 10-20 mph with higher gusts.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Saturday through Monday (October 4-6)
A very strong surface and upper level area of low pressure will become nearly stationary as it churns over Ontario from Saturday through Monday. With this storm to our north it will allow for a chilly NW flow to control our weather. Cyclonic flow on the west/south side of this autumn storm will lead to the possibility for a few showers through this period, and a few snow showers or flurries can’t be ruled out either especially on Saturday, and maybe again on Monday.
High temperatures will generally be in the 40s Saturday through Monday with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the 30s but a few spots might dip into the 20s Saturday Night.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(October 7-12)
Below average temperatures are expected through this period. Could be some showers from time to time but no major storms are showing up per model guidance Today.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Rain This Evening. Mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Considerable cloudiness. Light rain or drizzle possible at times. High 45 to 50 with near steady or slowly falling temperatures. Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.
.Friday Night… Light rain and drizzle. Mostly cloudy. Low 32 to 37. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Saturday… Considerable cloudiness. A few showers or patchy drizzle possible. High 40 to 45.
.Saturday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.
.Sunday… Considerable cloudiness. High 42 to 47.
.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.
.Monday… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 40 to 45.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 58
Low: 40
Sunrise Friday: 7:10 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 6:44 PM CDT
Tim
Leave a Reply