/Issued 4:10 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 21, 2014/
Don’t be surprised if there are a few thunderstorms in parts of the Northland Wednesday Afternoon and Night. The image below is the calibrated thunderstorm probability forecast for Wednesday, the chances aren’t that high for thunderstorm activity in our area, but there’s at least low probabilities for them to occur. Model data continues to show a decent push of elevated instability as well for Tomorrow and often times this can help to trigger some convective activity. Source, 15z SREF model.
Low temperature forecast for Tonight
Wednesday’s high temperature forecast and expected weather conditions. The shower/isolated thunderstorm risk will develop first in western portions of the area before spreading further east late Wednesday Afternoon.
Weather Summary for October 21, 2014
Location: Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
High pressure of 1026mb was over eastern Ontario with low pressure of 1000mb over southwest Saskatchewan late This Afternoon. Low clouds earlier in the day gave way to increasing amounts of sunshine over all but a small portion of northeast Minnesota where an area of low clouds continued to dominate as of 4 PM – generally from Two Harbors to Lutsen and inland through most of Lake County, western Cook County, and over eastern St. Louis County per 1km visible satellite imagery. High temperatures Today were in the 40s and 50s with east or southeast winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (October 21)
A quiet night ahead as clear to partly cloudy skies continue but there will be more extensive low level cloudiness primarily along the North Shore of Lake Superior Tonight. Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s but a few of the typical cold spots in northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota could slip into the 20s. Winds will be out of the south or east at 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (October 22)
A low pressure system along with a warm front and cold front will move into the Upper Midwest this period. SW 850mb jet will increase to around 30-40 knots out ahead of this system on Wednesday which will result in a warm air advection pattern. The atmosphere will also destabilize Tomorrow with elevated CAPE expected to climb into the 100-500 j/kg range while Lifted Indices drop to +1 to -3C.
Showers will be possible by Wednesday Afternoon-early Evening but a greater chance for showers will arrive Wednesday Evening and through the Overnight hours. A few thunderstorms could certainly develop as well especially Wednesday Afternoon and Evening the way it looks now.
High temperatures Tomorrow will range from the 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior with 50s and perhaps a 60 degree temperature elsewhere. Lows Tomorrow Night will mainly be in the 40s. Southeast winds on Wednesday will turn south or southwest Wednesday Night – wind speeds will range from 10 to around 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Thursday through Saturday (October 23-25)
A weakening cold front will be moving through the area on Thursday with a lingering threat for a few showers. Dry weather returns Thursday Night right through Saturday. High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s through this period with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the 40s. Note: I still think there’s at least a slight chance that some locales here in the Northland hit 70 degrees on Friday or get very close to the 70 degree mark.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
(October 26-31)
Above average temperatures are expected on Sunday (26th) After that we should see a cooling trend with temperatures falling back at least toward average levels, possibly even going below average but will just have to wait and see on that.
A storm system could develop and affect the Northland on the 26th-27th with possible rain and maybe even a few thunderstorms on Sunday (26th) Another system is possible sometime around the 30th-31st which could bring some more rain to the area.
7-day precipitation forecast valid through Tuesday, October 28, 2014. Source, Weather Prediction Center. Quarter to half inch rain totals are possible by early next week over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 34 to 39. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated late day showers or thunderstorms possible. High 50 to 55. Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday Night… Showers possible. Isolated thunderstorms possible mainly early. Mostly cloudy. Low 44 to 47. Wind becoming south at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Considerable cloudiness. Showers possible. High 53 to 58.
.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70.
.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.
.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 56 to 61.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 49
Low: 33
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:36 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 6:09 PM CDT
Tim
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