/Issued 4:24 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 22, 2014/
Tonight’s low temperatures and expected weather conditions over the Northland. More details below…
Not many – but there have been a few lightning strikes late This Afternoon in far eastern Minnesota and also up in southwestern Ontario.
Rainfall forecast valid through 7 AM Thursday. Rain totals in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin generally less than 0.25″ by daybreak, but a few locations could pick up over a quarter inch of rain. Source, 18z HopWRF model.
Weather Summary for October 22, 2014
Location: Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
We saw a mixture of clouds and sun over the Northland Today as low pressure of 1004mb approaches from western Manitoba. A warm front and cold front connected to that low are currently moving through the Dakotas. A 40 knot low level jet has developed ahead of this system over Minnesota Today which has resulted in a pretty good moist and warm air advection pattern, there’s also been a decent push of elevated instability which has been moving SW-NE into the Northland This Afternoon with late Afternoon CAPE values of around 200 j/kg per meso-analysis. Most of us stayed dry Today, but there has been a few showers and isolated thunderstorms that have developed late This Afternoon over eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures Today were in the 50s to around 60 degrees with 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Winds were from the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (October 22)
A warm front and cold front will be weakening as they move into the Upper Midwest Tonight. Even though this system will be weakening it will still cause some rain across the area Tonight along with a few thunderstorms especially This Evening. Low temperatures will be in the 40s to low 50s which is fairly mild for the time of year. Expect mostly cloudy skies and winds out of the south at 10 to 20 mph.
Thursday and Thursday Night (October 23)
Low pressure will be centered to our north while a weak surface trough tracks through the area. There’s a chance for some rain on Thursday over northwest Wisconsin and in far northeast Minnesota while the rest of the area stays dry. All of the Northland should be dry Thursday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s in far northeast Minnesota and eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 40s. Winds will be out of the south or west this period at 10 to around 20 mph.
Thursday’s high temperature forecast
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Friday through Sunday (October 24-26)
Dry weather is forecast through this period. The warmest day continues to look like it will occur on Friday, cooler but still slightly warmer than normal temps can be expected for both Saturday and Sunday.
Highs on Friday will mainly be in the 60s with a few locales possibly hitting 70. Expect 50s with 40s in far northern Minnesota for Saturday and Sunday – so yes cooler compared to Friday, but even those forecasted high temps over the weekend are slightly warmer than average for late October.
Could turn fairly windy on Saturday as west winds increase to 20+ mph, wind gusts may reach 30 mph.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(October 27-November 1)
A storm system may affect the Northland on Monday (27th) bringing rain and maybe even a few thunderstorms to the area. Some rain could linger into Tuesday (28th) as low pressure exits to our east/northeast. There could be another system sometime during the October 30-November 1 time frame which could bring some more rain to the Northland. Above average temperatures on the 27th with near normal temperatures from the 28th-1st.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers or thunderstorms This Evening with showers becoming more widespread Overnight. Low 44 to 47. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.
.Thursday… Showers possible during the Morning otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 57 to 62. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70.
.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.
.Saturday… Partly cloudy. Breezy. High 56 to 61. West winds could gust to 30 mph.
.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 50 to 55.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
High: 48
Low: 33
Sunrise Thursday: 7:38 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 6:07 PM CDT
Tim
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