/Issued 4:04 PM CST, Friday, November 7, 2014/
Gusty northwest winds developing This Evening and Overnight. Wind gusts of 30-45 mph — possibly as high as 50 mph across a large portion of the Upper Midwest. Source, 18z HopWRF model.
850mb wind speeds of 40-50 knots for later Tonight (Yellow and red area on the map) This does support the potential for gusty winds across the area Tonight. Source, 18z NAM/WRF model.
4″ or greater snowfall probability forecast valid for Sunday Night and Monday. Greatest potential for 4″+ snow totals are south of the Northland but this could change in coming days if the storm track shifts north. Stay tuned. Source, Weather Prediction Center.
Weather Summary for November 7, 2014
Location: Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Low pressure of 1000mb was over southwest Ontario late This Afternoon – strong pressure falls of up to 3mb/2 hours were found ahead of this low Today with equally strong pressure rises of 3-4mb/2 hours behind this low per SPC mesoanalysis page. This low pressure system brought a variety of weather to the Northland Today with snow, sleet, and rain but a slug of warmer air moving in from the west resulted in more liquid vs. frozen precipitation by the Afternoon hours over all but far northeast Minnesota. Highs Today were generally in the 30s with winds out of the south at 10 to 20 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (November 7)
The big weather story Tonight will be the increasing winds as low pressure passes by to our north, a cold front attached to that low will sweep through the Northland before Midnight. A wind shift from the SSW to the NW will occur once that cold front moves through. Wind speeds will ramp up during the night as strong cold air advection moves in along with decent pressure rises. Wind speeds should average 15-25 mph Tonight, but wind gusts of 30 to around 45 mph are possible. Low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s as skies remain mostly cloudy. Occasional rain, snow, and some sleet will continue as well This Evening with any precipitation that continues late Tonight falling entirely as light snow and flurries.
Saturday and Saturday Night (November 8)
Low pressure exits to our north/east this period while another cold front drops south out of Ontario. Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with some snow showers and flurries at times. Highs on Saturday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Saturday Night in the 20s to around 30 degrees with some spots in far northern Minnesota falling into the teens. Winds will be out of the west, northwest, or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts continuing especially Saturday Morning.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
Sunday through Tuesday (November 9-11)
A few flurries are possible on Sunday with high temperatures in the 20s and 30s, lows Sunday Night will be in the teens and 20s with generally dry weather expected.
Low pressure is forecast to pass well south/east of the Northland on Monday – this system could bring a healthy dose of snow to the southern 1/2 of Minnesota through portions of western, central, and northeast Wisconsin. Note: The storm track at least as of Today is too far south to give the Northland any decent snowfall, but some light snow could affect far southern portions of the area on Monday. A few flurries or snow showers are possible on Tuesday but no major accumulation is expected.
High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the 20s to low 30s with lows Monday Night in the teens and 20s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(November 12-17)
Below average temperatures are likely during this period with a little bit of snow every now and then, but the key word here is little. The exception would be along the South Shore of Lake Superior where periodic bursts of heavier lake effect snow will be possible as persistent NNW winds and very cold air blow across Lake Superior, so the Counties of Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron have the potential to receive a significant amount of snow by late next week.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Turning windy! Mostly cloudy with light rain at times This Evening with snow showers and flurries late. Low 25 to 30. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest at 15 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph possible late.
.Saturday… Partly to mostly cloudy. A few flurries possible early. High 30 to 35. Wind northwest to west at 15 to 30 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph.
.Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. Low 20 to 25. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. Flurries possible. High 29 to 34.
.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.
.Monday… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 27 to 32.
.Monday Night… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 18 to 23.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 25 to 30.
Normal temperatures for Saturday
High: 40
Low: 26
Sunrise Saturday: 7:01 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 4:43 PM CST
Tim
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