/Issued 2:26 PM CST, Saturday, November 8, 2014/
4″ or greater snowfall probability forecast valid from 6 PM Sunday through 6 PM Monday. Source, Weather Prediction Center.
Blue=Slight risk 4″+ snowfall amounts
Green=Moderate risk 4″+ snowfall amounts
Red=High risk 4″+ snowfall amounts
There’s still a chance for the snow area to shift a little more to the north or further south during the next 24 hours.
*WINTER STORM WATCH*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Location: All of northwest Wisconsin and parts of east central Minnesota.
Timing: Monday Morning through late Monday Night.
Counties included in the watch:
Southern Aitkin MN
Pine MN
Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Iron WI
Burnett WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI
Some cities included in the watch:
Aitkin
McGrath
Hinckley
Pine City
Superior
Solon Springs
Port Wing
Bayfield
Washburn
Cable
Ashland
High Bridge
Upson
Hurley
Gile
Danbury
Grantsburg
Siren
Minong
Trego
Shell Lake
Hayward
Winter
Exeland
Park Falls
Phillips
Fifield
Discussion: Snow develops Monday Morning and continues through Monday Night with snow tapering off from west to east on Tuesday.
Snowfall accumulations: Total snowfall accumulations of 6″ or greater is expected in the watch area.
Visibility: May be reduced in heavy snow.
Impacts: Snow covered roads and sidewalks.
A winter storm watch means there is a potential for significant snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
Winter Storm Watch for the area in blue on the map. Source, NWS hazards map.
Precipitation report for November 7-8, 2014
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN: 0.09″
International Falls, MN: 0.19″
Grand Marais, MN: 0.28″
Hibbing, MN: 0.11″
Ashland, WI: 0.18″
Hayward, WI: 0.11″
3 E of Wright, MN: 0.14″
12 N of Grand Rapids, MN: 0.10″
Togo, MN: 0.20″
Cook, MN: 0.19″
10 W of Gunflint Lake, MN: 0.14″
4 E of Island Lake, MN: 0.19″
1 WSW of Saxon, WI: 0.23″
Madeline Island, WI: 0.32″
4 W of Clam Lake, WI: 0.17″
24 hour precipitation map ending the Morning of November 8, 2014. Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
Snowfall report for November 7, 2014
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Gile, WI (Iron County) 0.8″
4 N of Grand Marais, MN (Cook County) 1.3″
4 NE of Tofte, MN (Cook County) 0.4″
20 N of Tofte, MN (Cook County) 1.5″
13 ESE of Gunflint Lake, MN (Cook County) 0.5″
3 NNE of Finland, MN (Lake County) 0.3″
5 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 0.2″ NWS total
24 hour snowfall map ending the Morning of November 8, 2014. Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
Weather Summary for November 8, 2014
Location: Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A chilly early November day under mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies. High temperatures were in the 30s with west or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. Most of the area has stayed dry Today but there have been a few snow showers and flurries especially over north central Minnesota.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (November 8)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected Tonight with light snow and flurries affecting portions of the area. Snowfall totals of a dusting to around 1″ are possible in some locations by daybreak. Low temperatures will be in the 20s to lower 30s with teens possible in far northern Minnesota. Winds will be out of the northwest or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
19z RAP snowfall accumulation forecast valid for Tonight. Generally a light snowfall event with amounts of 1″ or less.
Sunday and Sunday Night (November 9)
Light snow and flurries could linger during Sunday Morning in northwest Wisconsin, otherwise this period looks mainly dry across the Northland. Highs on Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Sunday Night in the teens and 20s. Winds Tomorrow will be from the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the north or east at 10 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Monday through Wednesday (November 10-12)
***Significant amounts of snow could fall over east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Monday through early Tuesday***
An area of low pressure is forecast to track out of the western High Plains to northern Illinois early in the week.
A widespread snow event is expected north of this low from central, southern, and eastern Minnesota through most of central and northern Wisconsin. A significant amount of snow is likely with totals of 6-8″+ in those aforementioned areas.
The cutoff between snow and no snow may very well setup right over the Twin Ports area, that seems to happen quite a bit. If the track of the low ends up being a little more to the north, then the Twin Ports would likely see higher snowfall totals, but if the low tracks a bit more to the south, then expect little to no snow. The computer models — especially the NAM/WRF has been shifting north and south with each run as to how much snow Duluth sees. See breakdown below…
00z run from Friday: 5-8″
06z run from Saturday AM: 12-15″
12z run from Saturday: 4-8″
18z run from Saturday: 12-15″
Common theme shows up here. Off-model runs (06z and 18z) heavier snow totals in Duluth vs. the 00z and 12z runs which still have snow, but not the extreme amounts seen in the other 2 model runs.
Note: The snow should be ending from west to east in southern/eastern portions of the Northland on Tuesday as low pressure heads to the eastern Great Lakes. A few flurries or snow showers are possible on Wednesday with lake effect snow along the South Shore of Lake Superior.
High temperatures on Monday will be in the 20s to lower 30s. Lows Monday Night will be in the teens and 20s. Highs for Tuesday and Wednesday will only be in the teens and 20s with lows Tuesday Night in the single digits and teens.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
(November 13-18)
A cold weather pattern with reinforcing shots of very cold temperatures likely through this period. Could be some snow from the 15th-17th — timing subject to change.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
Event: *WINTER STORM WATCH for Superior*
Timing: Monday Morning through late Monday Night.
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Light snow and flurries at times. Snowfall accumulations less than 1″. Low 23 to 28. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 29 to 34. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Mostly cloudy. Light snow and flurries possible. High 25 to 30.
.Monday Night… Mostly cloudy. Light snow and flurries possible. Low 18 to 23.
.Tuesday… Flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. High 23 to 26.
.Tuesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.
.Wednesday… Snow showers or flurries possible. High 23 to 28.
Normal temperatures for Sunday
High: 39
Low: 26
Sunrise Sunday: 7:02 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 4:42 PM CST
Tim
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