/Issued 3:53 PM CST, Friday, January 2, 2015/
Pink=Winter Storm Warning: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning
Purple=Winter Weather Advisory: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory
Source: NWS hazards map.
Here’s what I have come up with for snowfall accumulations through Saturday Night.
The following maps below are from the Weather Prediction Center.
6 AM Saturday:
12 PM Saturday:
6 PM Saturday:
Snow depth report as of January 2, 2015
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN: 5″
International Falls, MN: 5″
25 E of Ely, MN: 7″
Cook, MN: 4″
Embarrass, MN: 5″
Kabetogama, MN: 4″
3 E of Orr, MN: 3″
3 S of Ashland, WI: 2″
1 WSW of Saxon, WI: 11″
Park Falls, WI: 9″
4 W of Clam Lake, WI; 9″
Solon Springs, WI: 3″
Minnesota snow depth map as of December 31, 2014. Source, MNDNR. Not looking good across western, central, and parts of eastern Minnesota with generally 1″ or less of snow on the ground.
Weather Summary for January 2, 2015
Location: Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A warm front was over central Minnesota late This Afternoon with a weak area of low pressure averaging 1018mb in northwest Minnesota with a stronger surface low averaging 1004mb in far northeast Montana. There’s been a little bit of light snow, flurries, and even patchy freezing drizzle Today in parts of the Northland with snow accumulations ranging from a trace to about an inch or two. Quite a range in high temps Today with single digits in far northern Minnesota to the 20s in southwest parts of the area with teens in between. Winds were out of the south, southwest, or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Tonight (January 2)
Low pressure over the northern Rockies This Afternoon will drop southeast into the northern Plains Tonight while a frontal boundary turns stationary in north central Minnesota. Snow breaks out Tonight north of that boundary — so the Iron Range, Arrowhead, and Borderland regions will see snow develop during the night while the rest of the area stays generally dry. Low temperatures will be in the single digits and teens with winds out of the south or east-northeast at 5 to 15 mph.
Saturday and Saturday Night (January 3)
A significant snow event is likely on Saturday in far Northern Minnesota. Low pressure will be weakening as it passes through the Upper Midwest. An arctic front will drop southeast and through the Northland by Saturday Night.
Strong F-GEN forcing will lead to a band of heavy snowfall Tomorrow in far northern Minnesota to the Arrowhead while snow farther south stays on the light side. Note: There’s a pretty good chance that there won’t be any snow until late Tomorrow Afternoon if you’re in eastern Minnesota or northwest Wisconsin.
Expect light snow and flurries across the entire area Saturday Night as bitterly cold air pours into the Northland.
High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the teens and 20s, a few spots in northwest Wisconsin might even climb into the 30s. Lows Saturday Night will range from the single digits, teens, to the 20s below zero.
Winds on Saturday will be out of the south, east, or north at 10 to 20 mph. Winds Saturday Night will be out of the northwest at 10 to 25 mph.
Note: Expect areas of blowing and drifting snow especially by Saturday Night. Dangerously cold wind chills will also develop later Tomorrow Night.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
Sunday through Tuesday (January 4-6)
Low pressure deepens as it tracks into eastern Canada on Sunday while high pressure of around 1045mb builds into the northern Plains. The arctic flood gates will open up on Sunday and once that happens it won’t close again until later next week the way it looks now.
Dangerously cold temperatures and brutally cold wind chills will develop on Sunday and linger through Tuesday.
High temperatures are forecast to be in the single digits and teens below zero on Sunday and in the single digits below to single digits above zero for Monday and Tuesday. Low temperatures Sunday Night will be in the teens and 20s below zero with 30s below even possible in northern Minnesota. Lows Monday Night will be in the teens below to single digits above zero.
Wind chills should drop into the 30 below to 50 below zero range at times from Sunday through Tuesday and wind chill headlines will likely be needed in the Northland.
With all the cold air in place there will be little opportunity to receive any fresh snow during the Sunday-Tuesday time frame. The exception to this might be along the South Shore of Lake Superior where lake effect snow showers are possible Sunday and again on Tuesday as NW winds blow across Lake Superior. Elsewhere it looks fairly dry. Note: There is a clipper showing up on the models for Monday-early Tuesday, but I’m expecting that to trend much farther south in coming days.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(January 7-12)
Below average temperatures from the 7th-9th; near to above average temperatures from the 10th-12th. Minor snowfall event is possible around the 8th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Low 8 to 13. Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… Mostly cloudy. Light snow arriving during the Afternoon. High 25 to 30. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Saturday Night… Turning much colder. Breezy. Light snow tapering to flurries. Total snowfall accumulations of 1-2″ possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 10 below to 15 below. Wind becoming northwest at 15 to 25 mph.
.Sunday… Frigid. Partly cloudy. High 0 to 5 early with falling temperatures.
.Sunday Night… Bitterly cold. Mostly clear. Low 20 below to 25 below.
.Monday… Frigid. Partly cloudy. High 0 to 5 below.
.Monday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 10 below to 15 below.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 0 to 5.
Normal temperatures for Saturday
High: 19
Low: 2
Sunrise Saturday: 7:54 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 4:33 PM CST
Tim
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