January 31, 2015 Weather Report – Goodbye January! Winter storm south of here; Arctic air in far northern Minnesota.

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/Issued 5:01 PM CST, Saturday, January 31, 2015/

12″ or greater snowfall probability forecast through Sunday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Red=High risk for at least a foot of snow
Green=Moderate risk for at least a foot of snow
Blue=Slight risk for at least a foot of snow

Wind Chill Advisory for the area shaded in light blue on the map.  Source, NWS.

More information at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=wind%20chill%20advisory

Weather Summary for January 31, 2015
Location:  northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Quite the range in temperatures around the Northland Today as arctic air pushes into far northern Minnesota while near to above normal temperatures were common elsewhere.  Highs Today ranged from the single digits along the Ontario-Minnesota border to the teens and 20s elsewhere.  Sky conditions ranged from mostly sunny to partly cloudy and winds were out of the north at 5 to around 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (January 31)

Low pressure in western Kansas late This Afternoon will move east Tonight while arctic high pressure continues to build SE out of Saskatchewan.  Clear to partly cloudy skies will be found over our area Tonight with lows in the teens and 20s below zero in northern Minnesota to the single digits above zero in northwest Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the north or northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (February 1)

Arctic high pressure builds SE out of the northern Plains during this period while low pressure moves from eastern Kansas to the Ohio Valley.  Partly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with highs on Sunday in the single digits below to teens above zero.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the single digits below to around 20 below zero.  North or northeast winds on Sunday will turn to the north or west Sunday Night.  Wind speeds will range from 10 to 20 mph.

Note:  NNE wind coming off Lake Superior could lead to some lake effect snow showers Tonight and Sunday mainly along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin.  Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties could see some lake effect snow at times with accumulations of around 1″ to as high as 3″ possible by Sunday Evening.  I don’t think will see any lake effect snow in the Twin Ports as winds will be out of the NNE instead of the more preferred ENE direction, but it wouldn’t surprise me if there were a few flakes that make it into Superior and possibly the Downtown area of Duluth later Tonight and Sunday Morning.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Monday through Wednesday (February 2-4)

One arctic high exits to the SE on Monday while a new one builds into the Upper Midwest from the NW during Tuesday and Wednesday.  A weak system passes west/south of the Northland sometime between Monday PM-Tuesday but little if any snow is expected with this system here in our area.

Highs on Monday and Tuesday will mainly be in the teens with highs on Wednesday in the single digits and teens.  Lows Monday Night will range from the single digits below to teens above zero.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the single digits and teens below to single digits above zero.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(February 5-10)

A little bit of snow is possible at times between the 5th-8th as a baroclinic zone — temperature gradient sets up over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest with arctic air to our north and mild/Pacific air to our west/southwest.  We could see a couple waves of low pressure track southeast along that temperature gradient which could lead to a few shots for generally light snowfall over parts of the Northland.  Near to below average temperatures are expected from the 5th-10th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 5 to 10.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

.Monday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5 below.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 6 to 11.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  20
Low:     2

Sunrise Sunday:  7:33 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   5:12 PM CST

Tim

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