/Issued 3:49 PM CST, Tuesday, February 3, 2015/
850mb temperature anomaly forecast for Saturday, February 7, 2015 per 12z EUROPEAN ensemble model. Warm air to our SW (red/pink colors) Arctic air to our north/northeast (blue/purple colors) Might see a few systems track SE along this temperature gradient between the mild air and arctic air. Depending on the tracks of these lows and also the wind direction near Lake Superior will determine whether or not we get more minor snow events around here or possibly a more significant amount of snow. Source, tropicaltidbits.com
Scenario number one valid Friday-Sunday: Winds out of the east/northeast with a chance for lake enhanced/effect snow in the Twin Ports, North Shore, and along portions of the South Shore.
Scenario number two valid Friday-Sunday: Winds out of the east, or even east-southeast with a chance for lake enhanced/effect snow mainly along the North Shore of Lake Superior and mostly northeast of Duluth.
NWS hazards map: Wind chill advisory for the area shaded in light blue. More information at this link: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=wind%20chill%20advisory
Weather Summary for February 3, 2015
Location: northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Low pressure averaging 1016mb was over western Iowa late This Afternoon. This system brought an area of measurable snow to the southern half of Minnesota Today with several inches of accumulation along with difficult driving conditions. Most of the Northland remained dry Today as Today’s clipper passed too far to the south to give us any accumulating snow, the exception to that has been in the far southern portion of the area where some light snow and flurries have been reported Today — generally from around the Brainerd Lakes to Pine City and Siren, east through the Hayward Lakes, Park Falls and Phillips areas in Wisconsin. High temperatures Today were generally in the low to mid teens which is below average by a few degrees. Winds were out of the west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (February 3)
High pressure starts to build east out of the northern Rockies while low pressure tracks east out of western Iowa. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found over the Northland Tonight with flurries or light snow possible This Evening in far southern portions of northwest Wisconsin, west to Pine County Minnesota. Accumulations of up to a half inch will be possible but that should be about it. Low temperatures will range from the teens below in northern Minnesota to the single digits and teens above zero in northwest Wisconsin. Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (February 4)
High pressure builds into the Upper Midwest and central Plains during this period. Expect clear to partly cloudy skies with highs on Wednesday in the single digits below to single digits above zero, lows Wednesday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below. Winds through Tomorrow Evening will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph, winds late Tomorrow Night will be out of the southwest or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Thursday through Saturday (February 5-7)
Low pressure passes north of our area on Thursday while a warm front and cold front connected to this low move through the Northland on Thursday. A few snow showers or flurries are possible on Thursday mainly over far northern Minnesota.
Two chances for snow show up for Friday and Saturday. A temperature gradient will become established with mild air to our southwest and arctic air to our northeast. Low pressure disturbances originating over western Canada or the northern Rockies will drop southeast, more or less along this temperature gradient. The first system is forecast to move through on Friday with a second system expected to arrive sometime on Saturday.
Snow is possible over the Northland Friday and Saturday with some accumulation certainly possible, however, it’s too early to tell what parts of the area will be affected the most since that will depend on the storm track and since were still a few days away from Friday the computer models could change a bit from what they are showing Today.
The other thing will be seeing is a wind shift to the east during the Friday-Saturday time frame. Strong high pressure building into Ontario should be able to push some cold air down Lake Superior, this combined with an east flow off the lake could lead to lake enhanced snowfall at times from Friday into Saturday.
High temperatures will mainly be in teens on Thursday with teens and 20s expected on Friday and Saturday. Lows Thursday Night will be in the teens with lows Friday Night ranging from the single digits below to teens above zero.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
(February 8-13)
There is a chance that some snow lingers into Sunday (8th) Another chance for snow appears during the 10th-12th time frame. Temperatures look to be pretty close to average from the 8th-13th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 0 to 5. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday… Mostly sunny. High 6 to 11. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday Night… Mostly clear. Low 5 below to 10 below. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph becoming southwest late.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 14 to 18.
.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 14.
.Friday… Mostly cloudy. Light snow possible. High 16 to 21.
.Friday Night… Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. Low 8 to 13.
.Saturday… Mostly cloudy. Light snow possible. High 15 to 20.
Normal temperatures for Wednesday
High: 21
Low: 3
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:29 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday: 5:16 PM CST
Tim
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