/Issued 6:36 PM CDT, Sunday, March 29, 2015/
Getting to be that time of the year. Dusting off the convective model maps for the first time this season. The image below is the calibrated thunderstorm probability forecast for Wednesday, April 1, 2015 per 15z SREF model. Low probs for a spotty t-storm or two in parts of Minnesota and Western Wisconsin. Source, Storm Prediction Center.
There’s another round of precipitation lined up for Monday Afternoon-early Tuesday with amounts of a tenth to possibly a quarter inch possible per 18z RGEM. Source, TropicalTidbits.com
Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota – Airport location
March 22-28, 2015
High temperatures:
3/22: 33F/4 degrees below normal
3/23: 39F/2 degrees above normal
3/24: 47F/9 degrees above normal
3/25: 37F/1 degree below normal
3/26: 30F/9 degrees below normal
3/27: 30F/9 degrees below normal
3/28: 44F/4 degrees above normal
Low temperatures:
3/22: 20F/Normal
3/23: 23F/3 degrees above normal
3/24: 24F/3 degrees above normal
3/25: 29F/8 degrees above normal
3/26: 17F/5 degrees below normal
3/27: 10F/12 degrees below normal
3/28: 13F/9 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 0.11″
Normal: 0.37″
Departure: -0.26″ below normal
Last week’s temperature departure map. Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center. Cooler than normal!
Last week’s precipitation departure map. Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
Snowfall report for March 29, 2015
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Lutsen, MN (Cook County) 2.0″
3 N of Butternut, WI (Ashland County) 2.0″
1 W of Park Falls, WI (Price County) 2.0″
Ely, MN (St. Louis County) 1.5″
Glidden, WI (Ashland County) 1.0″
5 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 0.8″ — NWS total.
4 S of Sawyer, MN (Carlton County) 0.8″
Precipitation report for March 29, 2015
Source: MesoWest website
Aitkin, MN: 0.19″
McGregor, MN: 0.14″
International Falls, MN: 0.33″
Littlefork, MN: 0.33″
Effie, MN: 0.27″
Orr, MN: 0.28″
Brainerd, MN: 0.20″
Duluth, MN: 0.10″
Cloquet, MN: 0.10″
Saginaw, MN: 0.14″
Superior, WI: 0.11″
Ely, MN: 0.16″
Grand Marais, MN: 0.27″
Barnes, WI: 0.27″
Ashland, WI: 0.16″
Hayward, WI: 0.25″
Weather Summary for March 29, 2015
Location: Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
An exciting day for weather nerds (like me) Quick changes took place in the Northland Today as a strong but fast moving storm system moved through the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes. Surface low pressure of 994mb was over Northern Ontario early This Evening with 12-hour 500mb height falls of 60-120 meters covering most of the area per meso-analysis.
The day started with rain, sleet, freezing rain, and wet snow. Some of the snow was heavy at times putting down a quick coating up to a couple inches of slushy/sloppy snow. By This Afternoon, precipitation ended from NW-SE with sunshine returning in all but far Northeast Minnesota and in Eastern portions of Northwest Wisconsin.
High temperatures Today were mainly in the 40s with a few spots around the Brainerd Lakes pushing 50 degrees late This Afternoon. Winds were out of the south or southwest earlier in the day and out of the west or northwest during the Afternoon. Wind speeds were in the 15-25 mph range with gusts of 30-40+ mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
Tonight (March 29)
Quiet weather for the rest of Tonight under partly to mostly cloudy skies. High pressure pushes east into the Northland during the night. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with winds out of the northwest, west, or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts This Evening.
Monday and Monday Night (March 30)
High pressure centers will be located to our north and south/southeast while a cold front drops south out of Ontario with low pressure moving southeast out of Manitoba. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period. Another round of rain will move in from the northwest either late Monday Morning or during Monday Afternoon with some rain persisting into Monday Night. Note: Temperatures could become cold enough to support a rain/snow or an all snow scenario by late Monday Night mainly over far Northeast Minnesota with a few inches of accumulation possible late Monday Night.
High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s with 30s in far Northeast Minnesota. Lows Monday Night will be in the 30s with 20s in far Northeast Minnesota. Winds Tomorrow will be shift to the south or southwest at 10 to 15 mph, winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the northeast or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tuesday through Thursday (March 31-April 2)
A frontal boundary will linger over the Northland on Tuesday while low pressure exits to the southeast. Lingering light snow or rain is possible early in the day in parts of the area but most of Tuesday is shaping up to be a dry day the way it looks now. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with 30s near Lake Superior. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with 20s in far Northeast Minnesota.
A strong area of low pressure passes north of the area during the middle of the week. Should see a robust low level jet upwards of 50-60 knots develop ahead of this system on Wednesday which will pump moisture and some instability north into our area. Latest model guidance continues to show about 200-500 j/kg of elevated CAPE moving into the area on Wednesday — This might be just enough to trigger a couple of thunderstorms in parts of the area with scattered showers possible as well. High temperatures on Wednesday are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.
Low pressure will move across Ontario on Thursday with mainly dry weather expected in our area with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
(April 3-8)
Near to below average temperatures are expected from the 3rd-8th. I’m still monitoring the April 5-8 time frame for a possible storm system that may or may not affect the Northland. Anything from rain, snow, to thunderstorms are possible should this storm hit the area. Stay tuned.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 31 to 36. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts This Evening. Wind shifting to the west late.
.Monday… Some sun possible during the Morning otherwise mostly cloudy. Light rain possible during the Afternoon. High 45 to 50. Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Monday Night… Mostly cloudy with light rain possible at times. Low 33 to 37. Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 41 to 46.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 32 to 37.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers or isolated thunderstorms possible. High 48 to 53 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Wednesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 48 to 53.
Normal temperatures for Monday
High: 40
Low: 23
Sunrise Monday: 6:52 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 7:35 PM CDT
Tim
Leave a Reply