/Issued 3:57 PM CDT, Monday, March 30, 2015/
Here’s the severe thunderstorm probability forecast for Wednesday per Storm Prediction Center. Greatest chances 15% (Yellow area on the map) covers extreme Southwest Minnesota with a lesser 5% chance farther north into Central-Eastern Minnesota and far Western Wisconsin.
Some parts of the Northland could see their first thunderstorms of the season on Wednesday. Shown below is the surface map for Wednesday PM per Weather Prediction Center.
L=Low pressure
Red line=Warm front
Blue line=Cold front
Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 4:30 PM CDT. Source, WSI.
Green=Rain.
Should see this area of rain continue to move southeast This Evening — The rain should end in Duluth and Superior between 7-9 PM Tonight.
I got off work just in time to see the Edwin H Gott cruise into the Duluth Harbor Today, March 30, 2015. Also a few more pics I took Today down on Park Point. Enjoy!
Weather Summary for March 30, 2015
Location: Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A mixed bag of weather in the Northland Today. Most of us started the day with some sun, but clouds quickly increased from NW-SE with an area of rain affecting Western-Southern portions of the Northland during the Afternoon as low pressure moves into Western Minnesota. Highs Today were generally in the 40s to lower 50s but much warmer temperatures of 70-75 degrees were found in Southwest Minnesota Today. Winds weren’t much of a factor Today with speeds generally around 10 mph or less.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (March 30)
A band of rain will continue to affect parts of East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Evening as a fairly strong area of Frontogenesis pushes SE. Later Tonight, the risk for rain or snow showers will shift primarily to far Northern and far Northeast Minnesota with dry weather elsewhere. Low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s with variable winds at 5 to 15 mph.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night (March 31)
March 2015 will end on a quiet note as Tonight’s disturbance exits to the southeast while high pressure moves through Ontario. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with some rain or snow showers possible mainly early in far Northern Minnesota. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tuesday Night in the 20s and 30s. Winds Tomorrow will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Winds Tomorrow Night will shift to the east or southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
Wednesday through Friday (April 1-3)
A strong area of low pressure is forecast to track east through the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest and adjacent portions of Southern Canada during midweek. A warm front and cold front attached to this low will move east and through the Northland on Wednesday.
Computer models remain consistent in showing a healthy low level jet of 40-50+ knots developing out ahead of this system on Wednesday with moisture and warm air advection occurring throughout the Northland.
Dew points should climb into the 40s while elevated CAPE builds to around 200-500 j/kg during the Afternoon-early Evening hours. This combined with the approaching low and frontal boundaries should allow for the development of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in our area on Wednesday. The threat for severe weather this far north is on the low side due to limited instability and moisture, but there should be enough to produce at least a few thunderstorms around the area.
Mainly dry weather returns for Thursday and Friday.
High temperatures on Wednesday are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s. Highs on Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Thursday Night in the teens and 20s. Highs on Friday will be in the 30s and 40s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Low to Medium.
(April 4-9)
A weak system could trigger a few snow showers in parts of the Northland early Saturday (4th) After that the attention turns to the Sunday Night-Tuesday time frame (5th-7th) This is when we could see a storm system affect the Northland with possible rain, snow, or a wintry mix of precipitation. Note: There continues to be considerable uncertainty with the track/timing of this system so stay tuned. Near to below average temperatures are expected from the 4th-9th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Rain mainly before 9 PM. Mostly cloudy with some clearing possible late. Low 32 to 37. Wind variable around 10 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 48 to 53. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 28 to 33. Wind becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers or isolated thunderstorms possible mainly during the Afternoon. High 48 to 53 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Wednesday Night… A few showers or isolated thunderstorms possible mainly during the Evening. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 55 to 60.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 22 to 27.
.Friday… Partly sunny. High 38 to 43.
Normal temperatures for Monday
High: 40
Low: 23
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:50 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 7:36 PM CDT
Tim
Leave a Reply