/Issued 7:08 PM CDT, Thursday, June 18, 2015/
Future radar per 18z 4km NAM. Source, OWxData.com
Note: There is a chance that we could see a bow echo develop somewhere over the Northern Plains Friday Evening, if this develops it would likely track toward the east or southeast into Western and Southern Minnesota early Saturday Morning with a potential for damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail…Right now it looks like the greater chances for severe weather will remain over the Dakotas, but there is a risk (albeit a lesser one) for severe weather in West Central and South Central Minnesota Friday Night/early Saturday Morning.
10 PM Friday Night:
4 AM Saturday:
10 AM Saturday:
Friday’s severe weather outlook. Source, WSI.
Orange=Enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms
Yellow=Slight risk for severe thunderstorms
Light green=Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
Darker green=Risk for non-severe thunderstorms
Note: Some parts of that enhanced risk could be upgraded to a moderate risk per forecast discussion out of the Storm Prediction Center.
Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date: June 18, 2015
A weak cold front passed through the Northland today. Sky conditions ranged from mostly sunny to mostly cloudy with the mostly cloudy skies only lasting for an hour or so. High temperatures were in the 60s to around 70 degrees with winds out of the north, northwest, or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (June 18)
A quiet night ahead as high pressure moves through the Upper Midwest. Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the 40s and 50s but some of the typical cold spots will probably dip into the 30s. Winds will be out of the north or east at around 10 mph.
Friday and Friday Night (June 19)
High pressure moves off to the east while low pressure begins to approach from the west. Southerly flow in between the high and low will result in a bit more moisture moving into the Upper Midwest with dew points here in the Northland climbing into the 50s to around 60 degrees. A warm front will move slowly east out of the Northern Plains — Scattered showers and perhaps a spotty thunderstorm is possible on Friday mainly over Northern Minnesota.
The chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms should increase Friday Night as we could see one or two convective complexes develop over the Northern Plains. Note: Severe weather shouldn’t be an issue in our area though with limited instability. If there is any severe weather in Minnesota Friday Night it should remain over West Central and South Central areas of the state with damaging winds and large hail possible in those areas.
High temperatures on Friday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Friday Night in the 50s and 60s. Winds during this period will be out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Saturday through Monday (June 20-22)
Low pressure along with a cold front will pass through the area on Saturday. There is a chance for showers or thunderstorms in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Saturday although the best chance for rain appears to be during the Morning-early Afternoon hours.
A few showers or thunderstorms could redevelop late Saturday Afternoon-Evening as there could be some lingering moisture and instability over the area.
Another system approaching from the west/northwest could go on to produce a few showers or thunderstorms Sunday or Monday but confidence is pretty low as to what areas have the best chance for rain, and also on the timing.
High temperatures from Saturday through Monday are forecast to be in the 70s but 80s are possible in some parts of the Northland depending on sky conditions. Note: It will be cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior on Saturday and Sunday. Low temperatures Saturday Night and Sunday Night are expected to be in the 50s to lower 60s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
(June 23-28)
Near to below average temperatures are expected from the 23rd-28th. A few showers are possible at times from the 23rd-25th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 45 to 50. Wind east around 10 mph.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 68 to 73 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday Night… Considerable cloudiness. Showers possible. Low 55 to 60. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… Showers possible during the Morning under mostly cloudy skies. Partial clearing possible in the Afternoon. High 71 to 76 but it could be cooler near Lake Superior.
.Saturday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 52 to 57.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 71 to 76.
.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.
.Monday… Partly sunny. High 72 to 77.
Normal temperatures for Friday
High: 72
Low: 50
Sunrise Friday: 5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 9:06 PM CDT
Tim
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