/Issued 8:25 PM CDT, Saturday, June 20, 2015/
A lot of severe weather reports Friday and early this morning from Eastern Montana through parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, and far Southwest Minnesota thanks to a bow echo which raced southeast out of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains last night.
South Dakota was hit quite hard with several reports of intense wind gusts from 70-95 mph! 60-65 mph wind gusts occurred in parts of Southwest Minnesota between 3-4 AM today.
Blue dots=Wind damage reports
Green dots=Large hail reports
Red dots=Tornado reports
Source, NWS/Storm Prediction Center
A very cool enhanced infrared satellite loop of last night’s MCS. This loop goes from 1:37 AM through 12:37 PM June 20, 2015. Source, unisys weather
Rainfall map from 7 AM Friday through 7 AM Saturday. Source, WSI
15z SREF calibrated severe thunderstorm probability forecast for Monday-Monday Evening. High probabilities for some severe weather on Monday primarily in Southern Minnesota into Central/Southern Wisconsin. Source, Storm Prediction Center
Rainfall report for June 20, 2015
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN (Airport) 0.53″
Brainerd, MN: 0.21″
Hibbing, MN: 0.37″
Grand Marais, MN: 0.95″
Ashland, WI: 0.20″
7 NW of Brainerd, MN: 0.30″
Togo, MN: 0.33″
Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date: June 20, 2015
An area of low pressure along with a warm front and cold front passed through the Upper Midwest last night and today. A large thunderstorm complex developed last night over the Dakotas, this system moved east and southeast during the overnight hours into this morning with the northern portion of this mesoscale convective system (MCS) passing through the Northland early this morning through the late morning hours. The severe weather (Damaging winds and large hail) with this MCS remained over the Dakotas and Southwest Minnesota pretty much as expected. Here in our local area the thunderstorms early today were on the tame side with some lightning being the biggest hazard along with heavy downpours.
The weather did improve a bit this afternoon as partial clearing took place in most areas. The clearing allowed for some heating, and with lingering moisture and a boundary over the area we did see a few spotty showers and thunderstorms redevelop in parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. These storms this afternoon packed a little more of a punch as there was more instability available compared to earlier in the day.
High temperatures today ranged from the 50s and 60s near Lake Superior where fog and low clouds have been moving onshore and offshore all day long. Inland temperatures warmed into the 70s with 80 degrees reported at Brainerd. Winds today were out of the southwest, northwest, or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (June 20)
Spotty showers and thunderstorms over Northwest Wisconsin early this evening will dissipate before Midnight. Expect dry conditions Overnight over all of the Northland with areas of fog which could become dense. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with lows in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the northwest or east at around 10 mph.
Sunday and Sunday Night (June 21)
Isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop on Sunday as weak instability will be in place but no real boundary or disturbance to speak of, so any storm that were to develop probably won’t last very long.
Low pressure moves into the Northern Plains Sunday Night. A warm front connected to this low will be centered well to our southwest. Could see a thunderstorm complex develop Sunday Night over the Dakotas, this system if it develops could impact parts of the Northland late Sunday Night. Not expecting any severe weather though due to minimal instability.
High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the south, southwest, or east at 5 to 15 mph. Note: Low clouds and fog could persist at times Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night near Lake Superior.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
Monday through Wednesday (June 22-24)
Low pressure with a warm front and cold front will move through the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes on Monday — Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible on Monday in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Severe threat is low in our area on Monday with a greater chance for severe weather from Southern Minnesota through Central and Southern Wisconsin.
Might squeak out a dry day on Tuesday before another chance for a few showers or thunderstorms moves in on Wednesday.
High temperatures from Monday through Wednesday are forecast to be in the 70s with some spots possibly climbing into the 80s if we get enough sun. It will be cooler near Lake Superior especially on Monday. Low temperatures Monday Night and Tuesday Night are forecast to be in the 50s to lower 60s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
(June 25-30)
A few showers or thunderstorms are possible at times from the 25th-28th, not expecting all day rains, but will likely be dealing with spotty rain/storms on occasion from the 25th-28th. Near to below average temperatures are expected from the 25th-30th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Areas of fog. The fog could be dense at times. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind variable around 10 mph.
.Sunday… Areas of fog during the Morning. Partly to mostly sunny. Patchy fog might linger in the Afternoon close to Lake Superior. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible during the Afternoon. High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph with onshore winds possible near Lake Superior.
.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog possible. Low 55 to 60. Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Considerable cloudiness. Showers possible at times. High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Monday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 53 to 58.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 73 to 78.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 58 to 63.
.Wednesday… Partly sunny. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible. High 70 to 75.
Normal temperatures for Sunday
High: 72
Low: 51
Sunrise Sunday: 5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday: 9:07 PM CDT
Tim
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