/Issued 8:20 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 23, 2015/
There is a chance for a few strong to possibly severe thunderstorms on Wednesday in parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. The map below is the calibrated severe thunderstorm probability forecast for Wednesday P.M. Source, 15z SREF model; Storm Prediction Center.
Future radar per 12z WRF-NMM. Source, TropicalTidbits.com
2 PM Wednesday:
5 PM Wednesday:
8 PM Wednesday:
Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date: June 23, 2015
A nice summer day under partly to mostly sunny skies. High temperatures were in the 70s to lower 80s with a westerly wind at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. High pressure passing south of the Northland today was responsible in giving us such a nice day. There were a few showers and thunderstorms though that popped up this afternoon across parts of Northern Minnesota thanks to a cold front which is moving south out of Northern Ontario.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (June 23)
A cold front moves into Northern Minnesota Tonight. Spotty showers and thunderstorms will persist mainly over Northern areas Tonight otherwise expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky with lows in the 50s and lower 60s. Winds will be out of the north, southwest, or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (June 24)
Cold front remains over Northern Minnesota on Wednesday before it pushes south and out of our local area by Wednesday Night. High pressure will be centered to our northwest and northeast. Partly to mostly cloudy sky conditions will continue this period with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible once again, although the showers and storms should be a little more widespread Tomorrow compared to what happened Today.
Looking at around 500-1000 j/kg of CAPE Tomorrow with Lifted Indices of around -2 to -3C. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear generally in the 30-40 knot range. Mid level winds at or less than 40 knots. Upper level winds of 60-80 knots. All of these parameters per 12z, 15z, and 18z model guidance from Today.
A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Wednesday Afternoon and Evening with hail and gusty winds being the main threats.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the 70s to lower 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 50s to lower 60s with cooler temperatures possible over the Arrowhead. Winds will generally be variable in direction at 5 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Thursday through Saturday (June 25-27)
A few spotty showers or thunderstorms can’t be ruled out both Thursday and Friday for areas away from Lake Superior as there will be some moisture and weak instability in place both days, this combined with a potential lake breeze boundary setting up could allow for the development of a few pulse-type showers and thunderstorms in parts of the Northland Thursday and Friday. Saturday is looking mainly dry at this time.
High temperatures from Thursday through Saturday are forecast to be in the 70s to lower 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night 50s to around 60 degrees but some spots could drop into the 40s Thursday Night.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
(June 28-July 3)
Some showers or thunderstorms are possible on Sunday/Monday (28th-29th) This activity would be caused by a low pressure system, upper trough and cold front which are forecast to dig south/southeast into the Upper Midwest.
Looks like temperatures will be pretty close to seasonal averages from June 28th-July 3rd but there is a chance for above normal temperatures sometime around the 1st-3rd of July but computer models continue to struggle a bit with the weather pattern for next week. Stay tuned!
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph with onshore winds possibly developing near Lake Superior.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible mainly during the Afternoon. High 73 to 78 but it could be cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind variable to onshore at 5 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible mainly during the Evening. Low 50 to 55. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Thursday… Partly cloudy. High 68 to 73 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.
.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 52 to 57.
.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 75 to 80.
Normal temperatures for Wednesday
High: 73
Low: 52
Sunrise Wednesday: 5:15 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 9:07 PM CDT
Tim
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