/Issued 9:05 PM CDT, Saturday, July 25, 2015/
High temperature forecast for Sunday. Another warm day in the Northland with widespread mid to upper 80s expected, a few locations might even hit 90! Source, NOAA, National Weather Service.
Surface map forecast valid for Sunday afternoon. A spotty shower or thunderstorm is possible tomorrow because of the warm, moist, and somewhat unstable air in place but the main surface boundary (Warm front, red line on the map) is well southwest of our local area so the better chances for convection should be near that surface boundary. Source, WSI.
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota – Airport location
*Today marks the 4th day in a row with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees (22nd-25th) Will likely add a few more days to this streak.
*Average temperature for July 2015 (thru the 24th) 68.3 degrees which is +2.7 degrees warmer than normal. Note: The forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center called for enhanced odds that temperatures would be below average this month, no way that’s going to happen. Another fail by the CPC.
*12 days so far this month at or above 80 degrees compared to 7 days during the entire month of July last year.
***http://www.weather.gov/dlh/13thWarmestMeteorologicalSummertoDateatDuluth***
Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date: July 25, 2015
High pressure was in control of our weather today. Partly to mostly sunny skies were common with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Not as muggy today as it was on Friday with dew points today generally in the upper 50s and low/mid 60s. A few spotty showers have been passing through parts of the Northland today and there was even a severe thunderstorm that popped up for a brief time early this evening south of International Falls. Winds today were out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (July 25)
A few spotty showers or thunderstorms are possible tonight otherwise high pressure will be in control as it positions itself southeast of our area. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the 60s to around 70 degrees. Winds will remain out of the south or southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
Sunday and Sunday night (July 26)
High pressure will be centered to our east during this period. Just a small chance for a few spotty showers or thunderstorms around the area on Sunday, similar to what happened today. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected with highs in the 80s to lower 90s with lows Sunday night in the 60s to lower 70s. Winds will be out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
Monday through Wednesday (July 27-29)
Southerly flow of warm/moist air will continue through Tuesday before drier air moves in on Wednesday. A strong area of low pressure will be passing northwest of the Upper Midwest on Tuesday — A warm front and cold front attached to this low will swing through the area Tuesday and Tuesday Night.
Spotty shower/thunderstorm threat continues on Monday but most of us should stay dry. A better chance for showers/thunderstorms for Tuesday with dry weather returning for Wednesday.
Tuesday could be an active day in parts of the area with plenty of instability and moisture in place for storms. Should be some decent lift moving into the area too as will have the warm frontal boundary and cold front moving through the region. The strongest mid level winds (40-65 knots) look like they may hold back to the west a bit instead of punching into the corridor of greatest instability, this may cut back on the severe potential just a bit but there’s time for things to change. Low level jet looks quite strong and there should be enough wind shear in place for storm organization, assuming thunderstorms develop, and getting storms to develop on Tuesday might be difficult as will be dealing with warm temperatures aloft as 700mb temperatures soar to between +12 to +14C, that is one healthy cap. If storms can go they could be severe though with all modes of severe weather possible.
High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the 80s with a few 90s also possible. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 60s and 70s. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 70s and 80s.
Note: Dew point temperatures will likely hold in the 50s and 60s on Sunday with muggier air moving in for Monday and Tuesday with dew points of 65-75 degrees expected on those days.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(July 30-August 4)
Near to above average temperatures are expected from July 30-August 1 which will be followed by near to perhaps below average temperatures from the 2nd-4th of August. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible on August 1 (Saturday) otherwise the long range looks pretty dry at the moment.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 63 to 68. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Sunday… Warm. Partly to mostly sunny. High 84 to 89. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 65 to 70. Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Muggy. Partly cloudy. High 83 to 88.
.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 65 to 70.
.Tuesday… Muggy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 83 to 88.
.Tuesday Night… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 60 to 65.
.Wednesday… Less humid. Partly sunny. High 77 to 82.
Normal temperatures for Sunday
High: 77
Low: 56
Sunrise Sunday: 5:41 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday: 8:49 PM CDT
Tim
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