/Issued 4:12 PM CDT, Thursday, September 17, 2015/
850mb temperature anomaly map valid for Sunday, September 27, 2015 per 12z EUROPEAN ensemble model from today. Source, TropicalTidbits.com
The blue colors on the map below represent below average temperatures while orange and red colors are warmer than average temperatures.
With a west or even southwest flow aloft prevailing for the foreseeable future the prospects for a prolonged spell of chilly temperatures in Minnesota and Wisconsin is very low. Will need a shift in the upper level pattern to more of a northwest flow if you want any sustained cool/cold temperatures around here and that doesn’t look very likely at least through the remainder of September.
Tonight’s low temperature forecast. Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
Friday’s high temperature forecast. Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
Rainfall report for September 17, 2015
Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN; MesoWest.com
Note: Rainfall totals listed below occurred prior to Noon CDT today.
2 NE of Duluth, MN: 1.85″
Little Marais, MN: 1.62″
4 SE of Arnold, MN: 1.60″
3 SE of Hermantown, MN: 1.59″
5 SW of Hoyt Lakes, MN: 1.16″
3 N of Skibo, MN: 1.13″
Duluth, MN (Airport) 1.01″
5 NW of Two Harbors, MN: 0.78″
1 W of Isabella, MN: 0.77″
4 SE of Phillips, WI: 0.65″
Lutsen, MN: 0.57″
Aurora, MN: 0.40″
Danbury, WI: 0.33″
Hayward, WI: 0.22″
*RECORD EVENT*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Record warm minimum temperature set at Duluth, Minnesota on September 16, 2015. The low temperature was 67 degrees which breaks the previous record warm low temperature of 60 degrees which was set in 2006.
Weather Summary for September 17, 2015
Location: Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A cold front is tracking east through the Upper Midwest today with an upper level trough over the Northern Plains. Another muggy day but not as warm as previous days thanks to more cloud cover today along with occasional showers and thunderstorms. Dew points were in the 60s to around 70 degrees again today so very muggy for the time of year. High temperatures were in the 60s and 70s. Winds were out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
As I stated above, thunderstorms have been affecting parts of the Northland today with torrential rain and lightning being the main hazards out of these storms. Clearing wasn’t widespread today and in spots that saw clearing it was only for a short period of time, the amount of instability has been held down a bit due to the lingering cloudiness. Other parameters are favorable though for strong to severe storms today with enough wind shear in place along with stronger mid/upper level winds, but instability is weak to moderate at best and this is helping to keep the thunderstorms below severe levels today.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (September 17)
A cold front will continue to move east tonight and should exit the Northland by late tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue before Midnight over Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Locally heavy rain and dangerous lightning will continue to be the primary hazards out of these storms with a lesser chance for hail and gusty winds. It will be turning cooler and less humid from NW-SE during the night with lows in the 40s and 50s. Winds will shift to the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Friday and Friday night (September 18)
High pressure builds into the area from the west while low pressure heads northeast out of the Central Plains with this low moving toward the Eastern Great Lakes region by early Saturday morning. Rain associated with that Plains low should remain south/southeast of our local area tomorrow and tomorrow night. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs on Friday mainly in the 60s with lows Friday night in the 40s to lower 50s but some spots in Northern Minnesota will probably fall into the 30s. Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Saturday through Monday (September 19-21)
Mainly dry through this period with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Lows Saturday night and Sunday night are expected to be in the 40s and 50s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
(September 22-27)
Near to above average temperatures are expected from the 22nd-27th. Could be dealing with a few showers or possibly a few thunderstorms at times on the 22nd-23rd, and again during the 25th-27th time frame.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Turning cooler and less humid. Scattered showers or thunderstorms before 7 PM. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind becoming west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Cooler and less humid. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 64 to 69. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday night… Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70.
.Saturday night… Clear to partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.
.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 68 to 73.
.Sunday night… Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.
.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.
Normal temperatures for Thursday
High: 65
Low: 46
Sunrise Friday: 6:50 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 7:15 PM CDT
Tim
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