/Issued 4:51 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 28, 2015/
Down to 986mb! The surface low late this afternoon continues to strengthen with the pressure down to 986mb, further deepening of the low occurs tonight with pressures bottoming out between 980-983mb by Thursday morning.
Here’s the water vapor satellite image from 4:15 PM CDT today, October 28, 2015. Source, http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/
Red L=Low pressure
Black line=Storm track thru Thursday morning
Pink L=Upper level low
Brown line=Mid-upper level trough position late this afternoon
Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 4:30 PM CDT today. Source, WSI.
Blue=Snow
Green=Rain
Tonight’s low temperature forecast. Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
Thursday’s high temperature forecast. Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
Snowfall accumulation forecast for tonight per 10.28.15 NAM-12km model (18z run) Source, TropicalTidbits.com
Areas of North Central, Central, and Eastern Minnesota into parts of Western and Central Wisconsin could get a half inch to an inch or two of snow accumulation tonight.
Precipitation report for October 28, 2015 thru 3 PM CDT today
Source: MesoWest.com
International Falls, MN: 0.63″
Bigfork, MN: 0.43″
Walker, MN: 0.41″
Longville, MN: 0.53″
Pine River, MN: 0.52″
Aitkin, MN: 0.62″
Brainerd, MN: 0.14″
McGregor, MN: 0.42″
Hinckley, MN: 0.28″
Cloquet, MN: 0.33″
Duluth, MN: 0.56″
Hibbing, MN: 0.38″
Cook, MN: 0.18″
Ely, MN: 0.69″
Grand Marais, MN: 1.02″
Silver Bay, MN: 0.88″
Two Harbors, MN: 0.79″
Superior, WI: 0.54″
Ashland, WI: 0.90″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.52″
Hayward, WI: 0.81″
Siren, WI: 0.40″
Phillips, WI: 0.77″
Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date: October 28, 2015
Low pressure continues to deepen this afternoon with the center of the low as of 3 PM today moving toward South Central Lake Superior (988mb) Rain fell over the entire Northland early this morning but as colder air moved in we have seen a changeover from rain to snow take place this afternoon in parts of North Central and East Central Minnesota. The rain-snow line appears to be hugging the -2C 850mb temperature contour which as of 3 PM extended from Bigfork to Moose Lake to Siren…Precipitation along and west of this line is either snow or a rain/snow mix late this afternoon while precipitation remains in the form of rain/drizzle in Northeast Minnesota, far Northern Minnesota, and over most of Northwest Wisconsin. Temperatures today were in the 40s but have fallen into the 30s this afternoon over all but Northwest Wisconsin and for areas near Lake Superior. Winds today shifted to the north or west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (October 28)
Low pressure will deepen a little more tonight with pressures going down to around 983mb by late tonight. The area of low pressure will track from the Lake Superior-Upper Michigan border late this afternoon to Eastern Ontario by daybreak.
The Northland will continue to get precipitation tonight due to the low to our east and a very strong upper level system which will move east/southeast through the Upper Midwest – Speaking of that upper level system, very impressive 12-hour 500mb height falls on the order of 120-210 meters covered much of the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes today, wow.
Precipitation types will primarily be in the form of rain and drizzle closer to Lake Superior and also along the Borderland. Elsewhere, snow or a rain/snow mix will linger most of the night.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with northwest or west winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph.
Thursday and Thursday night (October 29)
Strong area of low pressure heads into Quebec Province this period with high pressure moving into the Upper Midwest. Lingering rain or mixed rain/snow in parts of our area tomorrow morning will give way to mainly dry weather tomorrow afternoon and night. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected this period with highs in the 30s and 40s. Lows Thursday night will be in the 20s and 30s. Winds tomorrow will be out of the northwest at 15 to 30 mph. Winds tomorrow night out of the northwest or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Friday through Sunday (October 30-November 1)
Dry on Friday with highs in the 40s but in the 30s in far Northeast Minnesota. A disturbance approaching from the southwest Friday night could bring some light rain to Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin while Northern Minnesota stays dry. Lows Friday night will be in the 30s and 40s.
Light rain is possible Saturday morning in parts of Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as one disturbance passes through the Upper Midwest. Another one arrives Saturday evening/overnight, this one looks stronger per model data with a surface low tracking east through Northern Minnesota – A period of rain is possible Saturday night in parts of the Northland. Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Saturday night in the 30s and 40s.
Sunday looks mainly dry at this time as the system Saturday night exits to our east while additional lows/disturbances remain off to our west. Highs on Sunday will be in the 40s and 50s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
(November 2-7)
Near to above average temperatures are expected from the 2nd-7th with the mildest temperatures likely to occur from the 2nd-4th the way it looks now. A trough over the Western U.S. and a ridge across the Southeast U.S. will result in a southwest mid/upper level flow over the Plains and Great Lakes which leads to milder than average temperatures during the early-middle part of next week. Showers are also possible at times during next week as a few systems eject out of the Rockies. No signs of any big snow through the 7th of November.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Light rain and drizzle near Lake Superior. Light rain and drizzle possibly mixing with snow on top of the hill. Little if any snow accumulation. Low 34 to 38. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
.Thursday… Breezy. Light rain or drizzle early. Considerable cloudiness. High 42 to 47. Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.
.Thursday night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 27 to 32. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest late.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45.
.Friday night… Mostly cloudy. Low 37 to 40.
.Saturday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 45 to 50.
.Saturday night… Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Low 40 to 45.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 48 to 53.
Normal temperatures for Wednesday
High: 46
Low: 31
Sunrise Thursday: 7:46 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 5:58 PM CDT
Tim
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