/Issued 6:36 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 24, 2017/
Based on what I’m seeing in today’s model trends this is what I’ve come up with for this late week system. Unfortunately if you want snow in Duluth the trends aren’t very promising as it looks warm enough for mostly rain through Friday with perhaps a rain/snow mix or brief change to snow occurring Friday night with minor accumulations (Dusting?) Right now it looks like there could be two areas with snow accumulations possibly of 2-4 inches or more — Area one would be over eastern North Dakota into parts of western, central and northern Minnesota. Area two is over parts of northern Wisconsin, but this area is centered more for the upcoming weekend and has greater uncertainty compared to area number one.
Source: http://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM Nest model
Blue is snow
Green is rain
Still quite a bit of uncertainty with this late week system — Trend seen in computer models today is for a stronger system emerging from the central Plains. Stay tuned!
Source: http://www.weather.gov/fgf/
Winter Storm Watch Thursday morning through Friday afternoon for the area shaded in blue on map. Strong winds of up to 60 mph; Snowfall of 2-4 inches; Considerable blowing and drifting snow; Possible blizzard conditions in the Red River Valley of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota later this week.
Source: http://weather.cod.edu
Water vapor satellite loop of the powerful storm from today, October 24, 2017.
Source: http://weather.cod.edu
And a visible satellite loop of today’s epic storm that slammed upper Michigan and the western Great Lakes.
Source: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/
Here’s the Goes-16 water vapor loop of today’s storm — This loop goes from ~8 AM to ~5 PM, October 24, 2017.
Source: http://weather.cod.edu
Really geeking out with all these satellite images of today’s storm — This one is a water vapor loop which shows a moisture connection from the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic Ocean to Hudson Bay Canada, then that moisture pushes south into the Great Lakes.
Weather Synopsis
Deep low pressure ~988mb continues to sit and churn over far eastern Upper Michigan and extreme southeast Lake Superior at 5 PM today. This storm brought very strong winds to parts of the Northland today with gusts over 50 mph reported earlier this morning along the North Shore of Lake Superior. The strong winds caused scattered power outages in parts of the area today.
Thankfully the strong winds are now subsiding in our area as the powerful area of low pressure begins to move off toward the E-NE.
Tonight: Areas that have clear skies early this evening will cloud up again as the next disturbance drops south/east out of Manitoba Province — This feature will go on to produce some light rain and snow showers in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Snowfall amounts should be very light for areas that see snow, maybe a light dusting by daybreak. Lows will mainly be in the 30s.
Wednesday: Lingering light rain or snow showers during the morning followed by mainly dry weather for the afternoon as low pressure exits the Northland to the SE. Highs mainly in the 40s but a few locations over the south might approach 50 degrees.
Thursday: Rain is possible over most of the Northland as low pressure approaches from the W/NW. Colder air begins to advect south into northern Minnesota by Thursday night which will change the rain over to snow while farther southeast precipitation stays in the form of rain the way it looks now.
Peak Wind Gusts from October 24, 2017
Source: http://www.weather.gov/dlh/
Silver Bay Marine: 59 mph
Duluth Harbor: 51 mph
Duluth, MN 1 E: 51 mph
Devils Island, WI: 51 mph
Bay of Grand Marais, MN: 49 mph
Duluth Airport: 47 mph
Cloquet, MN: 47 mph
McQuade Harbor Nearshore: 43 mph
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 41 mph
Proctor, MN 2 SW: 40 mph
Brainerd, MN: 40 mph
Port Wing, WI 1 N: 40 mph
Northome, MN: 39 mph
Grand Rapids, MN: 37 mph
Two Harbors, MN: 37 mph
Superior, WI (Airport) 36 mph
Ashland, WI: 36 mph
International Falls, MN: 32 mph
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Becoming mostly cloudy. Light rain possible late near Lake Superior with light rain or snow on top of the hill. Low 36 to 40. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph decreasing to around 10 mph.
.Wednesday… Light rain or snow showers possible early under mostly cloudy skies. Some afternoon sun possible. High 45 to 50. Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Mostly cloudy. Light rain possible. High 41 to 46. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for Wednesday
High: 47
Low: 32
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:41 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 6:04 PM CDT
Tim
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