/Issued 6:15 PM CDT, Tuesday, April 10, 2018/
Here’s my updated snowfall potential map for Wednesday night-Thursday morning. I got rid of the 3-5″ area up north as this should be a wetter snowfall as temperatures look to hover around the freezing mark give or take a degree or two. Snowfall ratios should also be on the lower side probably around 5:1 or even a little less than that.
Preliminary snowfall probability/amounts map for Friday through Sunday. Once again with this event this weekend we’re dealing with the affects of a strong Hudson Bay high which will feed plenty of dry air south into the Northland, and this is seen in today’s model runs as most of them have trended drier and further south with the axis of heaviest snowfall for this weekend, however, there is still a chance for several inches of snow in some parts of the Northland on Friday and possibly on Saturday as well, those chances appear to be greatest south of Duluth-Superior. Highly unlikely that will see the storm track shift north with the high over Ontario and Hudson Bay, if anything we could see the storm track shift even a little more to the south in coming days.
A few snow showers and flurries continue to pass through parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon — Blue areas on map (Radar loop through 5:15 PM CDT, Tuesday, April 10, 2018)
Yep, winter continues! After the sun filled Monday, today went the other direction with lots of clouds over the area. Some warm air advection, a slight increase in moisture combined with a weak wave embedded in the NW flow aloft helped to produce a few flurries and light snow showers today but there hasn’t been any accumulation of snow. Below average temps continued today with highs in the 30s.
Light snow showers and flurries will come to an end before Midnight otherwise partly to mostly cloudy for tonight with perhaps some patchy fog in spots later on. Lows will be in the teens and 20s with single digits possible in a few locations depending on sky coverage.
Wednesday won’t be too bad with highs getting into the 40s (closer to average) should have some sun tomorrow.
An area of low pressure is forecast to track out of the western High Plains, reaching Lake Michigan during the Wednesday afternoon-Thursday morning time frame — More moisture and some decent lift will accompany this fast moving system with some rain and snow affecting parts of the Northland from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. Temperatures won’t be all that cold, but should turn cold enough for the precipitation to fall or change over to snow late Wednesday night with a slushy 1 to possibly 3 inches of snow accumulating by Thursday morning especially from Duluth north. Note: There are differences in the computer models with precipitation amounts and where the precipitation will setup for Wednesday night, some models are further south than others, so I may need to adjust my snowfall map a bit during the next 24 hours.
***Latest on the Friday through Sunday storm***
•Strong low pressure moves into Nebraska on Friday and should move east from there through the weekend.
•Storm track has shifted south a bit thanks to the influence of the Hudson Bay high.
•Euro model which was showing outrageous amounts of snow for several days has backed off from those totals by quite a bit today, but still shows a decent amount of snow mainly from eastern Minnesota to north central Wisconsin.
•GFS model has remained fairly consistent with significant snow totals near and south of the Highway 2 corridor including in the Duluth area. The German-Icon model and Canadian model is somewhat similar to the GFS although slightly more to the south with the corridor of highest snow totals.
•Additional model runs will be needed the next few days to sort out where the snow area and heaviest snowfall will setup. Stay tuned.
•Two things I can say with fairly high confidence is that it’s going to be a cold and blustery weekend around here with highs only in the 20s along with strong east/northeast winds from 20 to 40 mph with higher gusts possible from Friday through Sunday morning.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy with some clearing overnight. Flurries mainly this evening. Low 20 to 25. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest late.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 41 to 46. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph becoming east later in the day.
.Wednesday night… Mostly cloudy. Light rain or snow developing before midnight. Light snow after midnight. Snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible. Low around 30. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph becoming north late.
Average temperatures for Wednesday
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:29 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 7:52 PM CDT