/Issued 5:18 PM CDT, Thursday, May 24, 2018/
18z NAM-Nest model
Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms on Friday in all of northwest Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota, the risk area is roughly south/east of a line from Two Harbors to McGrath.
Marginal Risk means that isolated severe thunderstorms are possible — Limited in duration and/or coverage and/or intensity.
Note: Lightning/flooding threats exist with all thunderstorms.
Some of us got a significant amount of rain earlier today which led to some flooding especially over portions of northern Pine County south of Moose Lake.
Rainfall Reports from Thursday morning, May 24, 2018
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/; http://mesowest.utah.edu
4 S Bruno, MN: 4.00 inches
2 W Drummond, WI: 3.44 inches
Bruno, MN: 3.44 inches
1 WSW Willow River, MN: 3.40 inches
Sturgeon Lake, MN: 3.20 inches
7 SE Grand Rapids, MN: 2.51 inches
Siren, WI: 2.25 inches
2 NW Gary New Duluth, MN: 2.10 inches
Superior Airport: 2.00 inches
Esko, MN: 1.56 inches
3 ENE South Range, WI: 1.51 inches
Hayward, WI: 1.49 inches
Wrenshall, MN: 1.42 inches
1 WSW Maple, WI: 1.39 inches
7 N McGregor, MN: 1.38 inches
Gordon, WI: 1.25 inches
Littlefork, MN: 1.15 inches
11 SSE Brule, WI: 1.14 inches
Washburn, WI: 1.00 inch
Ashland, WI: 0.46 inches
Saginaw, MN: 0.31 inches
Duluth Airport: 0.28 inches
Two Harbors, MN: 0.08 inches
*Local Storm Reports for Thursday, May 24, 2018*
7:05 AM CDT: Willow River, MN (Pine County) Flash Flood — Water over County Highway 41 near Willow River.
8:46 AM CDT: McGrath, MN 2 N (Aitkin County) Flash Flood — Water over Birch Street and 170th Street north of McGrath.
Top 5 warmest high temperature on record on Wednesday, May 23, 2018
Duluth, Minnesota: 3rd warmest high on record for May 23 with a high on Wednesday of 81 degrees — The record high for May 23 is 84 degrees set in 1980.
International Falls, Minnesota: 3rd warmest high on record for May 23 with a high on Wednesday of 85 degrees — The record high for May 23 is 91 degrees set in 1950.
A warm front has been lifting slowly north/east out of western Minnesota today. As of late afternoon this front stretched from northwest to eastern Minnesota to north central Wisconsin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been developing at times today near this boundary with plenty of moisture in place to produce heavy rainfall. There is also quite a bit of instability in the atmosphere this afternoon with CAPE ~2000 j/kg, but a lack of stronger winds aloft and generally weak shear has kept today’s storms from becoming severe.
There was a wide range in temperatures in our area today with 50s and east winds with some fog near Lake Superior while temperatures inland ranged from the middle 70s to upper 80s with the warmest temperatures covering southern portions of the Northland from Brainerd to Hinckley.
For tonight — The warm front will continue to lift northeast and should be north of our area by late tonight. A warm, moist and unstable environment will be in place throughout the Northland tonight, and this combined with the northeastward moving warm front will likely produce some more scattered showers and thunderstorms with a threat for heavy rainfall, and at least a marginal risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and gusty winds. Low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s. Note: Moist onshore flow will continue most of the night near Lake Superior with areas of fog which could be dense at times.
Friday — Low pressure at the surface and aloft approaches from the NW while a cold front shifts east across Minnesota and into western Wisconsin. Looks warm Friday with highs in the 80s, it will also be on the humid side especially in eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin where dew points should remain in the 60s through the day, while in northern Minnesota dew points will drop a bit due to an earlier cold frontal passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible once again on Friday due to the low and cold front moving across our area. Temperatures aloft will cool a bit compared to today with 500mb temperatures down around -14C on Friday, this combined with around 30-35 knots of mid level winds could be enough to produce a few strong to severe thunderstorms with a risk for hail and gusty winds during the afternoon/evening hours from east central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin.
Note: A record high temperature could be tied or broken on Friday at Duluth, Minnesota. The record high for May 25 is 86 degrees which was set in 2010. Winds will be out of the southwest Friday which is a warm direction for Duluth, if we can get enough sunshine, then I don’t see any reason why we won’t make a good run if not break the record high of 86 degrees on Friday. Clouds and earlier thunderstorm development would likely keep us from record or near record warmth on Friday.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Areas of fog mainly near Lake Superior. Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Low 57 to 62, cooler near Lake Superior. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Warm and a bit muggy. Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers and thunderstorms possible mainly during the afternoon. High 82 to 87. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Dew point 60 to 65.
.Saturday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 80 to 85 but it could be cooler near Lake Superior. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph but east winds possible near Lake Superior, possibly pushing farther inland during the afternoon.
Normal Temperatures for May 25
Sunrise Friday: 5:23 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 8:49 PM CDT