/Issued 5:39 PM CDT, Friday, June 1, 2018/
18z NAM-Nest Simulated Radar Forecast from 1 AM tonight to 7 PM Sunday. Rain moves into western portions of the Northland early Saturday morning (around daybreak) The rain will move farther north/east through the day, rain will diminish from SW-NE Sunday morning, lingering longest in far northeast Minnesota where the rain could stick around into Sunday afternoon.
Visible satellite loop from Friday, June 1, 2018. Severe thunderstorms erupting across the central Dakotas this afternoon while near Lake Superior a cool, moist easterly flow is producing quite a bit of lower cloud cover.
May 2018 Average Temperature – Departure from Normal
May 2018 Total Precipitation – Percent of Mean
Note: Most of the Northland ended up with below average rainfall in May but there were a few exceptions with some cities such as International Falls and Ashland having above average rainfall.
Spring 2018 Temperature Departure map
Spring 2018 Precipitation Anomaly map
May 2018 Climate Summary for Duluth, Minnesota
Average Temperature: 57.7 degrees
Normal: 51.4 degrees
Departure: +6.3 degrees above normal
•May 2018 was the warmest May on record dating back to 1875. Previous warmest was May 1977 with an average temperature of 57.4 degrees.
•17 days with a high temperature of at least 70 F — 2nd most on record for the month of May. Record is 19 days set in May 1989. Average number of days at or above 70 degrees for the month of May is 6.
•8 days with a high temperature of at least 80 F — May 2018 Tied with May 1980 for greatest number of days at or above 80 degrees for the month of May. Average number of days at or above 80 degrees in May is 2.
•1 day at or above 90 degrees — May 2018 was the 10th May on record to produce at least one 90 degree day, the other 9 include — May 1919, 1932, 1934, 1939, 1944, 1964, 1969, 1986 and 2016.
Highest Temperature: 92 degrees on the 26th
Lowest Temperature: 29 degrees on the 12th
Total Precipitation: 2.21 inches
Normal: 3.23 inches
Departure: -1.02 inches below normal
Heaviest daily precipitation total: 0.51 inches on the 27th
Number of days with at least 0.01 inch of precipitation: 8
Number of days with at least 0.10 inch of precipitation: 6
Number of days with at least 0.50 inch of precipitation: 1
Total Snowfall: 0.0 inches
Normal: 0.4 inches
Departure: -0.4 inches below normal
5 days with thunder
May 2018 Climate Summaries for select cities in the Northland
International Falls, Minnesota
Average Temperature: 56.3 degrees
Departure: +4.5 degrees above normal
…May 2018 was the 9th warmest May on record — Warmest was in 1977 with an average temperature of 60.9 degrees…
Total Precipitation: 3.70 inches
Departure: +0.84 inches above normal
***5 days with thunder***
Average Temperature: 61.9 degrees
Departure: +5.9 degrees above normal
…May 2018 was the 4th warmest May on record — Warmest was in 1977 with an average temperature of 63.4 degrees…
Total Precipitation: 1.71 inches
Departure: -1.66 inches below normal
***5 days with thunder***
Average Temperature: 55.3 degrees
Departure: +4.7 degrees above normal
Total Precipitation: 1.80 inches
Departure: -0.75 inches below normal
***6 days with thunder***
Average Temperature: 56.0 degrees
Departure: +4.1 degrees above normal
…May 2018 was the 5th warmest May on record — Warmest was in 1977 with an average temperature of 58.5 degrees…
Total Precipitation: 4.01 inches
Departure: +0.94 inches above normal
***7 days with thunder***
Meteorological Spring 2018 Climate Summary for Duluth, Minnesota
Period: March 1 to May 31
Average Temperature: 38.9 degrees
Normal: 39.0 degrees
Departure: -0.1 degree below normal
Total Precipitation: 4.04 inches
Normal: 7.15 inches
Departure: -3.11 inches below normal
Total Snowfall: 23.6 inches
Normal: 20.5 inches
Departure: +3.1 inches above normal
State Average for Minnesota for Spring 2018
March 1 to May 31
Temperature: 41.0 degrees
Departure: -1.8 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 7.14 inches
Departure: -0.49 inches below normal
June begins on the cool side especially near Lake Superior where high temperatures today were only in the 40s while farther inland highs made it into the mid 50s to mid 60s which is near normal to about 10 degrees cooler than normal for June 1. Warmest temperatures today around the Brainerd area (66 degrees at 5 PM)
Surface map late this afternoon had low pressure of 1000mb over the western Dakotas with an upper level trough digging southeast out of the northern Rockies. High pressure ~1030mb was over Hudson Bay Canada — A tight pressure gradient between the low to our west and high to the northeast helped to generate strong northeasterly winds today near Lake Superior with gusts from 20 to 30 mph.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies across the Northland for tonight. Breezy conditions near Lake Superior. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s. Rain is forecast to move into western portions of the area late tonight, most likely toward daybreak.
Rainy Saturday ahead with some heavy downpours possible. Isolated thunderstorms as well thanks to some elevated instability with most unstable cape from 100-500 j/kg.
This will be a rather strong system with the upper level trough becoming negatively tilted as it heads through the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes this weekend. Should be some decent lift with the approaching low and trough to generate widespread rainfall on Saturday.
Highs Saturday will be in the 50s to lower 60s with upper 30s and 40s near Lake Superior where a 15 to 30 mph northeast wind will continue most of the day.
Weather conditions slowly improve on Sunday as low pressure exits to the north/east while the upper level trough pushes more slowly northeast and away from our area. Sunday afternoon temperatures should be in the 60s in western areas where skies clear earlier, but lingering clouds should keep temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s in northeast Minnesota and most of northwest Wisconsin. If skies clear earlier than expected, then high temps will reach the 60s to lower 70s in most of the Northland.
Rain Saturday night should decrease from SW-NE Sunday morning, but light rain and drizzle could persist most of the day in far northeast Minnesota.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind east at 15 to 30 mph.
.Saturday… Breezy. Rain developing mid to late morning (9 to 11 AM) Rain during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms also possible. High 45 to 50 with slowly falling temperatures during the afternoon. Wind east at 15 to 30 mph.
.Sunday… Mostly cloudy with some afternoon clearing. High 60 to 65. Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.
Normal Temperatures for June 2
Sunrise Saturday: 5:18 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 8:56 PM CDT