/Issued 6:52 PM CDT, Monday, June 4, 2018/
18z NAM model
18z NAM model
Ring of Fire type pattern sets up for Tuesday with hot and capped conditions to our southwest while a risk of thunderstorms, some possibly strong to severe develop Tuesday night over northwest Minnesota, these storms should then move either south/southeast into central and southeast Minnesota, or toward the east across north central and eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin.
This past weekend’s weather grade was certainly an F across the Northland, but today I’d say the weather grade was an A+ Near perfect weather in our area today with high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s with the Brainerd area getting into the lower 80s. There have been some mid to high level clouds moving across the area today as a cold front moved south through the Northland.
Clear to partly cloudy skies tonight with cool temperatures as lows fall into the 40s to around 50 degrees with 30s in the typical cold spots. Patchy frost is possible early Tuesday morning away from Lake Superior.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies for Tuesday with a lake wind so temperatures near Lake Superior will be in the 50s, while inland locations climb into the mid 60s to mid 70s. There is a chance for a few showers mainly over western-southern areas.
Elevated instability is forecast to build north/east out of western Minnesota Tuesday night thanks to a 30-40 knot southwest low level jet — Temperatures aloft will also be quite warm to our southwest which should keep any thunderstorms away from the southwest half of Minnesota Tuesday night. Will probably see scattered thunderstorms or a larger complex of rain and thunderstorms erupt sometime Tuesday night out in northwest Minnesota, this area of rain would then move south or east early Wednesday morning, basically riding on the north/east side of the cap (warmer temperatures aloft)
Thunderstorms that develop Tuesday night could contain frequent lightning and heavy downpours, but the risk of severe thunderstorms at least in our local area looks rather low with cooler temperatures leading to generally elevated instability with no surface based instability this far north. A few of the storms could still be on the strong side, however, with potential for some hail or gusty winds early Wednesday morning over some parts of the Northland, probably focusing over the southwest sections of the Northland (Cass Lake, Brainerd, Aitkin, Pine City areas)
Rain or scattered thunderstorms could persist into Wednesday morning, but Wednesday afternoon and evening look mainly dry as a cold front with higher moisture and instability pushes south/east of our area, so any additional thunderstorm development later Wednesday afternoon should take place over southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin the way it looks now. Highs Wednesday are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Clear to partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming east by midnight.
.Tuesday… Cooler. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 58 to 63, cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday… Rain possible during the morning. Isolated thunderstorms also possible. Mostly cloudy with some clearing later in the day. High 65 to 70. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph becoming west.
Normal Temperatures for June 5
Sunrise Tuesday: 5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 8:59 PM CDT