/Issued 4:37 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 5, 2018/
18z NAM-Nest model
18z NAM-Nest model
Strong instability this afternoon from the Dakotas into southern Minnesota, at least some of this instability will advect northeast into the Northland later tonight thanks to a southwesterly low level jet which is forecast to increase to around 30 to 40 knots.
A few strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible early Wednesday morning over western-southern portions of the Northland with a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms roughly west of a line from Littlefork to Moose Lake to Pine City. Main threats in that area would be from hail and possibly gusty winds.
All thunderstorms will produce lightning and heavy downpours.
Note: A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms means that isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Limited in duration and/or coverage and/or intensity.
Note: Black lines on map represent the expected track of the complex of rain and storms later tonight.
12z European computer model
Record low temperature tied for June 5 at Hibbing, Minnesota
Low Temperature Tuesday morning, June 5, 2018: 32 degrees — This ties the record low temperature for June 5 which was first set in 2000.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies across the Northland today with highs ranging from the 50s near Lake Superior to the mid 60s/mid 70s elsewhere.
Focus for late tonight into Wednesday morning is on the potential for a larger complex of rain and thunderstorms to move east/southeast out of western Minnesota — This system could impact some parts of the Northland roughly in the 1 AM to 9 AM time frame. I don’t think will have much if any severe weather in our area late tonight, but a few isolated stronger storms are possible especially around the Brainerd Lakes area, otherwise expect some heavy downpours and occasional lightning should this convective complex develop and affect our area early Wednesday morning.
Lows tonight will be in the 40s and 50s, highs Wednesday in the 60s and 70s with the warmest temperatures probably not occurring til mid or late afternoon as skies clear a bit behind Wednesday morning’s rain.
Low pressure with its warm front and cold front will pass through the Northland tonight and Wednesday. Moisture and instability will advect northeast into our area ahead of this system. PWATS increase to 1.10 to 1.60 inches while most unstable CAPE builds to 500 to around 1500 j/kg. A plume of steep mid level lapse rates will also head E/NE over some parts of our area tonight. A cap (warm temps aloft) over South Dakota and southwest Minnesota should cause any complex of storms later tonight to move east/southeast on the northern periphery of these warmer temperatures aloft, this would mean that northern, central and eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin could be impacted by rain and thunderstorms early Wednesday morning.
Probably won’t see much redevelopment occur in our area Wednesday afternoon as clouds linger most of the day which will prevent a lot of warming and greater instability from developing as the cold front moves through.
Our next shot for some rain comes on Friday the way it looks now.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Rain and isolated thunderstorms possible especially after 4 AM. Low 43 to 48. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday… Rain and isolated thunderstorms possible mainly before 8 AM. Mostly cloudy with some clearing during the afternoon. High 69 to 74. Wind east, becoming west at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.
Normal Temperatures for June 6
Sunrise Wednesday: 5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 9:00 PM CDT