/Issued 5:10 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 3, 2018/
Here’s the setup through Wednesday morning.
For the Flood Watch area:
-Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected into early Wednesday evening which may lead to flooding.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight in northern, northeast and east central Minnesota into extreme northwest Wisconsin. Main threats would be from hail and strong winds.
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday in all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Main threats are from large hail and damaging winds.
Zoomed in view of the corridor of heavy rain that setup late Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. The heaviest rain ended up falling north and northwest of the Twin Ports.
Northland Storm Reports for July 2 through 3, 2018
•12:53 AM: Heavy Rain — 2.30 inch. 1 NNW Ball Club, MN (Itasca County) The duration of the heavy rain event was 3 hours.
•12:51 AM: Heavy Rain — 2.05 inch. 11 SSE Marcell, MN (Itasca County) The duration of the heavy rain event was 3 hours.
•12:48 AM: Heavy Rain — 2.33 inch. 5 NE Deer River, MN (Itasca County) The duration of the heavy rain event was 3 hours.
•12:45 AM: Heavy Rain — 3.32 inch. 3 NNW Deer River, MN (Itasca County) The duration of the heavy rain event was 3 hours.
•12:27 AM: Heavy Rain — 2.06 inch. 9 ENE Deer River, MN (Itasca County) The duration of the heavy rain event was 3 hours.
•12:15 AM: Heavy Rain — 2.52 inch. 2 SE Ball Club, MN (Itasca County) The duration of the heavy rain event was 3 hours.
•12:07 AM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage — 7 NNE Cohasset, MN (Itasca County) Tree knocked down on State Highway 38 approximately 10 miles north of Grand Rapids.
•12:00 AM: Heavy Rain — 2.39 inch. 3 WNW Federal Dam, MN (Cass County) The duration of the heavy rain event was 3 hours.
•11:45 PM (7/2) Flash Flood — Deer River, MN (Itasca County) Water across the road at junction of Highway 2 and 6.
•11:32 PM 7/2: Hail — 0.75 inch. 4 SE Greaney, MN (St. Louis County)
•11:04 PM (7/2) Hail — 1.75 inch. Side Lake, MN (St. Louis County) Golf Ball sized hail.
Additional Rainfall Reports from Monday night-Tuesday morning
Leech Lake Dam, MN: 2.75 in
12 N Grand Rapids, MN: 1.40 in
3 E Orr, MN: 0.76 in
Babbitt, MN: 0.61 in
10 W Gunflint Lake, MN: 0.56 in
Cass Lake, MN: 0.55 in
Hibbing, MN: 0.48 in
Embarrass, MN: 0.45 in
Brainerd, MN: 0.41 in
Cook, MN: 0.41 in
25 E Ely, MN: 0.29 in
Northome, MN: 0.22 in
3 E Wright, MN: 0.15 in
Grand Marais, MN: 0.07 in
Duluth Airport: 0.06 in
Most of the day was overcast with areas of rain showers passing through parts of the area, but skies have been clearing a bit across the Northland this afternoon. Rising heights and warming temperatures aloft moving in from the SW is leading to a capped atmosphere late this afternoon. High temperatures today were in the upper 70s to lower 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Late afternoon dew points were generally in the 60s, so a bit on the muggy side!
Through Wednesday night:
Will have three different fronts moving through the Northland. The first boundary will loiter over northern Minnesota through Wednesday morning, the second front which will be a warm front is expected to move NE through the Northland on Wednesday, then a cold front passes through our area Wednesday night.
Warm and moist air will be found over our area through Wednesday with dew points in the 60s to the low/mid 70s! PWATS of 1.30 to around 2.25 inches…This much moisture in the air will increase the potential of heavy rain if or when thunderstorms occur — Some flooding could occur in parts of the Northland, especially in areas that were hit with heavy rain Monday night (Portions of north central Minnesota)
Low level jet increases once again later tonight and with a boundary sitting in northern Minnesota and another one approaching from the SW, we should see showers and thunderstorms develop and expand in coverage later tonight mainly affecting western-northern portions of the area (similar to last night)
Thunderstorm chances increase for northwest Wisconsin Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening while thunderstorms will be possible in northeast Minnesota through the day Wednesday.
Some of the storms through Wednesday evening could be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds. The potential for damaging winds could increase if a bow echo develops.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty on how things will play out for Wednesday, but the potential is there for the atmosphere to become very unstable with CAPE 1500-3500 j/kg, but much of this will depend on if there is any morning convection, and if there is will it clear out soon enough to allow for afternoon clearing and heating which will destabilize the atmosphere making it primed for additional storm development later in the afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front. Note: There is also a chance we see showers and embedded thunderstorms persist most of the day, ending late in the afternoon with mainly dry weather Wednesday evening with little in the way of severe weather potential.
Low temps tonight ranging from the lower 60s to lower 70s, highs for Independence Day in the 70s and 80s, cooler temps near Lake Superior.
Very nice weather is expected for Thursday, Friday and Saturday with no rain and quite a bit of sunshine! Highs in the 70s Thursday, 70s to lower 80s Friday, and in the 80s for Saturday. Much drier too so it shouldn’t be humid at all at least for Thursday and Friday.
Normal Temperatures for July 4 at Duluth, Minnesota
Sunrise Wednesday: 5:20 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 9:06 PM CDT