/Issued 5:16 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 4, 2018/
Cold front is still over western Minnesota late this afternoon but is moving east and will move through northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight — Chances for additional thunderstorm development near and ahead of this cold front have decreased considerably across the Northland, however, I still can’t rule out a spotty shower or storm this evening over northeast and east central Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin, but shouldn’t be widespread or severe.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop for July 4, 2018 (Ending at 4:32 PM)
Not enough clearing behind this morning’s storms which is helping to keep instability down late this afternoon, this is diminishing the chances will see additional thunderstorms develop this evening across the Northland.
Local Storm Reports for July 4, 2018
2:09 PM: Heavy Rain — 0.80 inch. 3 W Iron Junction, MN (St. Louis County)
8:41 AM: Hail — 0.50 inch. 4 NW Tamarack, MN (Aitkin County)
8:10 AM: Hail — 0.50 inch. 2 ENE Waldeck, MN (Aitkin County)
8:05 AM: Hail — 0.50 inch. 3 WNW Tower, MN (St. Louis County) Hail duration about 5 minutes.
8:01 AM: Hail — 0.25 inch. 2 S International Falls, MN (Koochiching County)
Showers and thunderstorms moved through much of the Northland this morning, these storms brought with them heavy downpours, lightning and some gusty winds and hail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued into the afternoon over southeast portions of northwest Wisconsin (Hayward Lakes area) otherwise the remainder of the area was dry this afternoon. There’s been plenty of high level cirrus clouds moving SW-NE across the area today thanks to convection farther south. The atmosphere was overturned by this morning’s thunderstorms, and with the clouds lingering into the afternoon this has resulted in the atmosphere not being able to recover very much.
A cold front was over west central Minnesota at 4 PM today, this front will continue to move toward the east and will pass through the Northland tonight. It’s still very humid ahead of this front with dew points in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees, these muggy conditions will persist through the evening hours. As alluded to above there just isn’t a lot of CAPE (instability) over our area with values generally around 1000 j/kg or less as of 4 PM, and the atmosphere is also capped with MLCIN around 100 j/kg per meso-analysis page. Looks like the cold front will come through generally on the quiet side tonight, but still can’t rule out a few spotty showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northland, but the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms have decreased considerably!
Lows tonight will be in the 50s and 60s.
Much lower dew points on the way for Thursday and Friday with quite a bit of sunshine expected both days as a rather strong area of high pressure heads east out of the northern Plains. Highs Thursday in the 70s. Highs on Friday in the upper 70s to middle 80s!
Saturday also looks nice although it will be turning a little muggier once again with dew points climbing into the 60s. Highs Saturday should top out in the 80s.
A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms for Sunday as a cold front heads southeast into the Northland. Warm and muggy air ahead of this front with highs in the 80s, possibly up around 90 degrees in parts of the area if storms stay away long enough. Dew points on Sunday in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog possible at times this evening near Lake Superior. Low 60 to 65. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest around daybreak. East wind near Lake Superior becoming west late.
.Thursday… Less humid! Mostly sunny. High 72 to 77. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Mostly sunny. High 78 to 83. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal Temperatures for July 5
Sunrise Thursday: 5:21 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 9:05 PM CDT