/Issued 5:07 PM CDT, Thursday, August 2, 2018/
Goes-16 visible satellite loop for Thursday, August 2, 2018 (Loop time ~11:30 AM to ~4:50 PM)
Skies were mostly cloudy most of the day near Lake Superior, but skies turned sunnier late this afternoon, while in northern Minnesota skies were mostly sunny this afternoon. More clouds are approaching the Northland from northwest Minnesota late this afternoon.
18z NAM 8.2.2018
Dew Point Forecast valid 7 AM Friday to 7 PM Friday.
It will be turning more humid in most of Minnesota on Friday as dew points climb into the 60s with even 70+ degree dew points forecast over southern Minnesota. Not nearly as humid near Lake Superior on Friday with dew points holding in the 50s.
12z GEFS model 8.2.2018
Temperature Anomaly Trend for days 8-14, centered on August 14. GEFS model is trending cooler across the upper Midwest in the 8 to 14 day time frame. There is quite a bit of disagreement showing up between the long range model guidance (GEFS and EPS models) with the EPS or Euro Ensemble model showing a warmer pattern setting up across the upper Midwest through mid August.
Orange and red=Above normal temperatures
White=Near normal temperatures
Blue=Below normal temperatures
12z GEFS model 8.2.2018
500mb height anomaly forecast valid through August 18, 2018. Upper level ridging continues across the western/southern U.S. with generally west or northwest flow aloft expected to linger into mid August north of this ridge across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes, expect temperatures to remain near seasonal averages for our area with some warm days and cooler days mixed in. Looks like the core of the real intense/persistent heat will remain farther west/south of the Northland through mid August.
Climate Data for August 1, 2018
International Falls, Minnesota
2nd coldest low temperature on record for August 1 with a low on Wednesday of 39 degrees. The record low for August 1 is 38 degrees set in 1959.
5th coldest high temperature on record for August 1 with a high on Wednesday of 65 degrees. Coldest high on record for August 1 is 57 degrees set in 1971.
3rd coldest high temperature on record for August 1 with a high on Wednesday of 65 degrees. The coldest high on record for August 1 is 57 degrees set in 1950.
4th coldest high temperature on record for August 1 with a high on Wednesday of 68 degrees. The coldest high on record for August 1 is 53 degrees set in 1950.
5th coldest high temperature on record for August 1 with a high on Wednesday of 70 degrees. The record coldest high for August 1 is 65 degrees set in 1927.
Record low temperature broken at International Falls, Minnesota Thursday morning, August 2, 2018.
New record: 34 degrees set on 8/2/2018
Old record: 41 degrees set on 8/2/1918
Temperatures have trended warmer today with highs ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s which is an increase from the 50s which covered the Northland Wednesday afternoon. Lingering drizzle and fog this morning near Lake Superior gave way to decreasing clouds this afternoon, while skies were partly to mostly sunny in northern Minnesota. Surface map late this afternoon had high pressure over the south shore of Lake Superior with southerly winds developing on the backside of this high.
Will have partly to at times mostly cloudy skies in our area tonight with the possibility for a few showers in north central Minnesota thanks to some warm air advection. Lows tonight will be in the 40s and 50s, but a few of the typical cold spots could dip into the 30s in far northeast Minnesota and interior portions of northwest Wisconsin.
Friday will find a warm front lifting slowly northeast out of western/southern Minnesota, this warm front is expected to move through the Northland Friday night-Saturday morning, then will see a cold front approach from the west later in the weekend.
Southerly flow will transport deeper moisture into the upper Midwest Friday through Sunday with this humid air reaching western/southern parts of the Northland on Friday, then farther north/east Saturday and Sunday.
Instability will also be on the increase while the low level jet increases to >30 knots at times through the weekend. A strengthening wind field in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is also expected to occur with stronger wind shear developing as well especially Saturday and Sunday.
There will likely be some scattered showers and thunderstorms passing through northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Friday, Saturday and Sunday with heavy downpours possible due to the higher moisture levels, and a few of the storms could become strong to severe as well thanks to the stronger winds aloft, wind shear and better instability that may develop at times over the next few days.
High temps on Friday will range from the 60s near Lake Superior to the 70s/lower 80s in western areas. Highs Saturday and Sunday in the 70s and 80s.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for August 3
Sunrise Friday: 5:51 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 8:38 PM CDT