/Issued 5:06 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 15, 2018/
18z 3km NAM
Goes-16 visible satellite loop for Wednesday, August 15, 2018 (Loop time: 9:42 AM to 5:32 PM)
East wind/humid flow off Lake Superior has produced periods of low clouds today over the southwest shore of Lake Superior. Low clouds were widespread this morning, dissipated a bit this afternoon, but are now becoming more widespread again late this afternoon. Farther inland in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin skies were generally sunny this afternoon.
Quite a bit of weather showing up on Goes-16 visible satellite imagery late this Wednesday afternoon, August 15, 2018.
This just looks awful! Can’t imagine what it looks like and how bad the smoke smell is for our Canadian neighbors today, wow! Wouldn’t surprise me if at least some of this thick wildfire smoke moves south of the border into parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest over the next few days, hopefully not as bad as what is occurring today in western/central Canada.
18z NAM Nest model 8.15.2018
I’m keeping an eye on a system which could bring widespread rainfall to much of the Northland during the Sunday-Monday time frame, August 19-20. Timing and the track of this system could change a bit during the next few days, but based on today’s model runs, rain would spread into western portions of the Northland Sunday morning, spreading farther east Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening. Rain would then taper off from west to east on Monday.
12z GEFS model 8.15.2018.
Precipitation Anomaly Forecast, 7-day increments valid August 22 through 31, 2018.
Green=Above average precipitation
Long range models have been trending toward a wetter pattern developing across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes for late this month. By the way, rainfall so far this month at Duluth, Minnesota has been running slightly below average, but our last measurable rain of 0.01 inch or greater accumulation was over 10 days ago on August 4 (Rainfall of 1.21 inch)
About the only real weather concern for the next few days will be low clouds and fog.
Will stay dry through Saturday with warm afternoon temperatures. Highs Thursday, Friday and Saturday will range from the middle 70s to middle 80s. The exception to this will be near Lake Superior especially Friday afternoon when a stronger lake wind is forecast to develop per model guidance, which if it does develop would drop temperatures from around 80 F to the 60s Friday afternoon.
As for the low clouds and fog, the pattern is quite favorable for low clouds and fog during the nighttime/morning hours through Saturday, the low clouds should dissipate each afternoon but if they stick around into the afternoon, then high temps would end up a little cooler.
Rain chances increase for Sunday and Monday as a more organized low pressure system approaches from the west while a cold front approaches from the northwest. Might get some thunderstorms as well Sunday or Sunday night.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for August 16
Sunrise Thursday: 6:08 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 8:17 PM CDT